“One step forward, two steps back”

Early on January 11 Kyiv time, US President Barack Obama urged Americans to defend democracy in his farewell speech and could not hold back his tears as it ended. He identified racism, economic inequality, and the retreat of some segments of society into “their own bubbles” where opinions are not based “on some common baseline of facts” as the principal threats to democracy in the US.

Summing up his presidency, Obama declared that America had become a stronger place over these eight years, but all citizens, he maintained, had to participate in the strengthening of democratic institutions. “Regardless of which way the pendulum of power swings,” he said, all of this depended on civic participation.

Speaking in Chicago, where he had begun his political ascent, Obama devoted part of his speech to external and global threats as well. He said that America could not withdraw from the fight for the expansion of democracy in the world and against extremism, intolerance, authoritarianism, and nationalist aggression. He noted that all this threatened the post-World War Two international order.

“Rivals like Russia or China cannot match our influence around the world – unless we give up what we stand for, and turn ourselves into just another big country that bullies smaller neighbors,” he stressed. It was the only time Obama mentioned Russia or China by name. He never mentioned Ukraine either.

The 55-year-old Obama considers selective sorting of the facts by politicians when opinions are not based “on some common baseline of facts” – that is, populism – to be another threat to the US’s political system. At the end of his speech he stressed that as president, his only request to the Americans was this: “I am asking you to believe. Not in my ability to bring about change – but in yours.”

As for his successor Donald Trump, Obama mentioned him only once at the beginning of the speech with these words: “I committed to President-Elect Trump that my administration would ensure the smoothest possible transition, just as President Bush did for me. Because it is up to all of us to make sure our government can help us meet the many challenges we still face.”

It should be noted that many experts have expressed dissatisfaction with Obama’s foreign policy. In particular, he gets blamed for the failure in Syria, where he drew a “red line” for Bashar Assad, but has ultimately done nothing to remove from power the Syrian leader who has been killing his own people. Obama is also accused of failing to stop Russia which violated international standards by occupying Crimea and part of the Donbas as well as unleashing war in eastern Ukraine.

However, Obama has really done a lot of good domestically, as evidenced by the high approval ratings, which stand at 57 percent today. Such approval ratings were only reached by outgoing Bill Clinton before, while the remaining presidents left the White House with very low ratings.

COMMENTARY

Oleksandr TSVIETKOV, Professor of American Studies, Diplomatic Academy, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Ukraine:

“We must duly appreciate the speech which Obama delivered in Chicago, not in the White House, and the way he behaved. As he was speaking, somebody called out that he be reelected for a third term. But Obama said that, unfortunately, by the rules, he was to abandon this office.

“It was interesting for us to hear a familiar expression which was pronounced for the first time in the US Congress – a step forward, two steps back. Whenever Obama took a step forward, he had to take two steps back. In particular, he tried to reduce the number of the US military abroad and succeeded in this to some extent, but more and more military conflicts remain unresolved and the US armed forces are still stationed abroad. He strove to reduce the number of conflicts and servicemen abroad, but not always managed to do so.

“Although Obama said that transfer of power from one party to another was a hallmark of democracy, the emergent political principles are entirely different to the ones he adhered to. And Obama feels that this is a challenge to the mainstays of democracy. At the same time, he noted that democracy was ensured by the people, not by leaders, and if voters had made their choice, they must adhere to and strengthen democracy.”

“It should be noted that power has usually been transferred from one president to another peacefully and without too much stir. But now almost every day brings on new challenges and misunderstandings. What is more, this occurs against the backdrop of an information war, when unconfirmed data about Russian hacking during the presidential elections are being made public. This ushers in an era of behind-the-scenes diplomacy and lobbyism, when a new political force forms its columns of influence. This also presents such a challenge as nepotism, when the new president is coming to power, relying on his own family circle. As is known, Trump has appointed his son-in-law as chief advisor, and the most influential woman will be his daughter Ivanka who is going to wield a great deal of clout in portfolio distribution and making all kinds of political decisions. These are new challenges to democracy, which are very far from what Obama and his family adhered to. Incidentally, he thanked his family for support and for being able to rely on it all the time.

“What we can see now is a face-off between the current and the future administrations. It is emphasized that power is being transferred in a peaceful and civilized way. At the same time, some are saying that everything will be restructured, while others maintain that the basics should be left intact.

“I would characterize the eight years of Obama’s presidency as positive for Ukraine. There were no breakthroughs, but there was mutual understanding in critical situations, and the US was always trying to support politically and economically the ongoing process in this country. Ukraine was not a top priority in the US foreign policy, but, nevertheless, we could feel US support.

“And now comes a period of uncertainty, and, as long as the new administration has not yet begun to function, it is impossible to say exactly what steps it will take first. But the US system itself suggests that there are more chances that there will be no downfall in bilateral relations.

“The very fact that the whole world is looking at America means that it is not one of the centers of international clout but the largest center of international politics. This is why so much attention is riveted to the change of administrations. Bur the first steps of the 115th US Congress and the first dialogues with the intelligence community, the vanguard of power transfer, show that there will be no major breakdowns in foreign policy.”