Opposition’s Dilemma
Last week in parliament ended with part of the people’s deputies (at least 226, whether some like it or not) getting united. Volodymyr Pekhota of the European Choice people’s deputies’ group read a statement on the formation of a parliamentary majority. Most of the opposition received it in a very emotional way. How realistic is this majority and will the Verkhovna Rada become more effective after its formation? President Leonid Kuchma’s message to the nation, September 28, is evidence, albeit indirect, that the pro-presidential forces have at least 226 votes. That the president now has support in parliament is corroborated primarily by the determination with which Mr. Kuchma declared that he would defend his stand: “The irreconcilable demand that I resign. Let me tell you here and now that I shall not... because I am the head of this state elected by this people and I am fully aware of my responsibility for what is happening in this country... Rallies on September 16 and 24 showed the Ukrainian citizenry that no coup will ever take place in this country.” September 30, Leonid Kuchma called on all the factions and groups within the majority for revising the agenda and attach priority to changes in the tax legislation, social projects, and work on the budget. His press secretary Olena Hromnytska said the President intends to propose the majority leaders to take an active part in the elaboration of the political reform, including that of the election law. During a meeting with leaders of factions and groups they also discussed the problem of forming a coalition government. The president said he expected to see membership proposals in October. At the same time he stressed the need to protect the interests of the parliamentary minority.
The opposition, in turn, wonders about the majority’s opposition, which is only natural. Our Ukraine’s Roman Bezsmertny believes that “unless the majority becomes numerically stronger, reaching at least 270, it is perfectly clear that they won’t be able to pass bills.” Indeed, making the legislature dependent on the presence of several MPs in the audience would be risky.
The so-called Nine members say they are prepared to hold talks with any of the four opposition factions. Most likely they realize that they can hardly expect a whole faction to join them. Our Ukraine is ideologically close to the newly formed majority, but Our Ukraine requirements — premiership for Viktor Yushchenko, non-participation of SDPU (o), and (according to some sources) certain cadre changes at the presidential administration, are unacceptable for the rest in parliament, meaning that the possibility of OU joining the majority is practically reduced to nil. Separate components of Our Ukraine are an altogether different story, ditto some at the Communist faction. Most of the so-called deputies sought seats in parliament to solve business problems in the first place. Imagine OU completely blocking the lawmaking process (precisely what Yushchenko’s people promise unless their political demands are met). MPs at this faction would stand no chance of influencing VR decision- making. 2004 prospects look very enticing, of course, but will the big business live on such meager rations for two years, even for the sake of a great cause? Not likely, just as it is not likely that the Communist leader will be able to keep his faction under control, considering their growing dissatisfaction with the party’s political course. Their dissatisfaction can be easily understood. To quote one of the CPU leaders, why should the party carry Viktor Yushchenko’s icon?
To date, there all the prerequisites to effectively complete the construction of the majority. Whether the VR will be able to function normally in the next couple of weeks will largely depend on the pro-presidential factions. The opposition retains a fair chance of taking an equal part in the lawmaking process, including the VR committees, although to do so the opposition must first make up its mind: What is more important, lawmaking or aggravating the political situation in Ukraine?
