From the Oppressed to Leaders

Last week the Iraqi parliament elected Jalal Talabani as the republic’s new president. He is a representative of the Kurdish nation, which was subjected to constant oppression and persecutions under Saddam Hussein. His vice presidents are Shiite Adel Abdul-Mahdi and Sunni Ghazi al-Yawar.

Talabani, 72, is a prominent politician. In the 1950s he was an active member of the Kurdish Democratic Party. Differences with the party leadership led him to form his own Patriotic Union of Kurdistan in 1975. The Kurds’ struggle for self-determination in the 20th century often escalated into armed confrontations with the central government in Baghdad. On orders from Saddam Hussein, in 1988 the Iraqi army used chemical weapons against the Kurds. Observers have not ruled out that the election of a Kurd to the top executive post may encourage the Kurdish minority to take more determined steps in their struggle for broader autonomy.

On the evening of April 5, Iraq’s largest political parties agreed to elect the president and two vice presidents at a National Assembly session after a two-month deadlock in the talks to form a new government. This agreement put an end to fears of an imminent threat to political stability in Iraq. The parliamentary elections last January finally made it possible to speak about a more or less stable consensus among politicians. However, the stalemate resulting from the politicians’ inability to agree on a new government caused a slight panic in the American command, since the vacuum of power in the country was creating favorable conditions for the mobilization of the insurgents.

The president and two vice presidents, who form the presidential council, have two weeks to appoint a prime minister, who will choose ministers for the new government. This procedure might also prove difficult. The largest political forces in parliament have been unable to reach an agreement on who will have more representatives in the executive and who will occupy key posts. Their failure has led to bitter disagreements, particularly between the Shiite and Kurdish blocs. As absolute outsiders in the Iraqi political arena, the Sunnis can only hope that the majority blocs in parliament will share ministerial portfolios with them. Shiite and Kurdish political leaders have spoken about the need to involve the Sunnis in the political process in order to prevent mounting popular dissatisfaction. Most of the Sunnis boycotted the parliamentary elections, which explains their limited representation in parliament.

Even though the period of political stagnation has ended, stability in postwar Iraq is still a long way off. Last week brought news of the deaths of three more US soldiers and one Iraqi officer, who were killed in skirmishes with several dozen rebels in eastern Iraq. On April 2 between 40 and 60 rebels stormed the infamous Abu-Ghraib prison, wounding at least 20 Americans and 13 Iraqi prisoners. In March, Iraqi and American soldiers conducted a joint operation against a camp of 80 rebels north of Baghdad. The American command has not yet fully understood the insurgents’ tactics. There are fears that the rebels have started preparations for a large-scale offensive. In one of his first speeches, the new Iraqi president stressed that his priority is to enhance security. He called on neighboring countries to prevent rebels from infiltrating Iraq from abroad.

With the election of the new president, the process of political evolution in Iraq is not over. The National Assembly must draft a constitution by August 15. Elections to select a permanent government have been scheduled for December. The constitution and a permanent government are the main preconditions for the withdrawal of coalition forces from Iraq. Ukraine is expected to withdraw its contingent by December 2005.

INCIDENTALLY

Ukraine needs to increase its diplomatic and consular presence in Iraq to ensure the effective implementation of Ukrainian business projects after our peacekeepers leave the country. Speaking in Boston, Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Borys Tarasiuk said that the withdrawal of the Ukrainian military contingent from Iraq will be accompanied by “a shift of accents toward nonmilitary forms of our presence in the country.” He went on to say that “these nonmilitary forms will involve our specialists in the sphere of oil and natural gas production, construction, and utility services. But to this end we need a diplomatic and consular corps that is large enough. This explains our growing diplomatic presence in Iraq.”