Or a Ukrainian Version of Lebed?

Yes, it is all about her, about our friend Natalia and the place Progressive Socialist Natalia Vitrenko might have in our lives or not. It all depends on the scenario finally adopted at Office No. 1 on Bankova Street, allowing, of course, for an error in prognosticating the object under study.

The first option was singled out by The Day this spring, based on the assumption that Petro Symonenko was regarded by Bankova Street as not spectacular enough to act the bogy in the presidential campaign script, repeating Russia's scenario of reformer vs. Red peril. Natalia Vitrenko with her promise to send all the bad men to the uranium mines, and with Volodymyr Marchenko in tow, cuts a considerably more impressive figure, so leading political analysts and sociologists promptly began to tell us that she was the only contender capable of beating Leonid Kuchma to the second round with a 33% margin. Later, all these analysts and sociologists were «corrected,» and Comrade Vitrenko's margin registered a sharp decline, attesting most likely to just how free the Ukrainian sciences are to develop and how much the Chief Executive's environs are susceptible to intrigue, rather than reflecting Natalia Vitrenko's actual popularity. Of course, it is hard to imagine that one-third of the Ukrainian populace, after watching her beat a People's Deputy, already floored by Marchenko's punches, on television will rush out to vote for progressive socialism instead of calling the ambulance. But maybe we will have to, assuming that the «Zhirinovsky ratio» of 10-11% is a standard in a normal country, not one where most are ill and poverty-stricken. The fact that Natalia Vitrenko is to play a special role was confirmed when the Central Election Committee was struggling to compute and verify the signatures in her support. Now we hear from CEC Chairman Mykhailo Riabets that the Supreme Court did wrong sidestepping the million signature aspect and ordering CEC to register candidates without actually taking it into account. Quite recently, however, Mr. Riabets shared with us his emotionally frank observations that can be summed up as follows: all the candidates registered (voluntarily!) with CEC should not have been registered, because none of their lists of signatures could pass muster when looked into at sufficient length and depth. Then what was the criterion? The CEC's and its chairman's concept of the alignment of forces in the election arena? If so, the Committee must be aware of the debates preceding Bankova Street's decision to let Natalia Vitrenko be registered, considering that she had problems due to many things. In this sense Mr. Rabinovych who left Ukraine so promptly and very untimely could have shared valuable information. Or maybe Leonid Kuchma's campaign coordinator, Mr. Volkov, who won the battle for Vitrenko's registration, would.

Now it appears that Bankova Street's final decision was not dictated by the fear that, failing to get registered, Natalia Vitrenko would turn into a wild force suddenly unleashed, but by the Kuchma- Symonenko scenario which is now being hastily amended because of Comrade Symonenko's «unreliability.» The thing is that Speaker Tkachenko's constant display of confidence (nothing to worry about, we'll always come to terms with Symonenko) and a rather steady stand taken by certain Communist ideologues, assuming that the CPU does not need an utter fiasco and even less so a Bulgarian-type victory, provoked havoc on Bankova Street. The second-hand Russian scenario is falling apart, but this is all they have! Hence a modified version: helping Natalia Vitrenko along, as far as the second round, placing her vs. Leonid Kuchma, staking on the public's fear of seeing her and Marchenko at the helm, in which case one and all, the Left included, would vote for the current President.

The Bankova Street boys seem quite willing to take risks, for this venture could meet with a fitting response. For example, from the campaign headquarters of the main contenders who would have to step down reach an understanding and allow their constituencies to vote as they please. Without endorsing Vitrenko, of course, but explaining to activists what is to be done (the motto «Anyone but Kuchma!» would be more in vogue than ever). After all, this tactic would not be more indecent than the Kuchma campaign headquarters scenario, would it? If our young democracy has to cut its teeth, then the sooner the better.

Under President Vitrenko, life in Ukraine would be full of excitement, even if short-lived, the way it was in the Crimea under Yuri Meshkov. And we all remember the outburst of enthusiasm there. He would appear before a huge crowd, a very imposing figure, delivering his spiel in a well-modulated sonorous voice, making old ladies shriek, weep, and thrust forward to kiss his hands. Yet the bureaucratic machine would respond to none of his commands. Then the number one militiaman would be fired, but no one care one whit about his replacement. The next logical step would be turning to the secret police. He did and was met at the SBU very politely, listened to and explained things, while his new appointees were thrown out and promised a swift kick in the butt. As time passed the motley opposition united, mobsters who had scattered were now returning, bureaucrats at all levels engaged in a sabotage campaign, the Supreme Council levying restrictions on the presidential powers — all united to combat Yuri Meshkov. Meanwhile, living standards on the peninsula did not rise. The President's charisma was crumbling, the people were sobering up to the reality, some saying he had won the Crimea with Kyiv's support. Who backed who is now history. Let bygones be bygones. But the fact remains that the autonomous republic is not a state. Of course, everything would have been different, had there been a Crimean army. There is no doubt that Marchenko would fire General Kuzmuk. A sight worth seeing, to be sure. And Verkhovna Rada would become friendly and united at once, and amendments in the Constitution would be made quickly. Parliamentarism will flourish! Early presidential elections, perhaps in the spring. And Natalia Vitrenko, God bless her, would put a final end to all the debates about whether the Ukrainian land can produce its own Newtons in skirts. And the only possible negative aspect of this nationwide experiment will be the problems Yuliya Tymoshenko will face during the next elections as another female contender. What about the people? The nation? Well, gentlemen, you are democrats, aren't you? You must not stand in the way of the people exercising their sacred right to choose. Just as you should not prevent the people from experiencing the consequences of that choice in full measure.

Most likely, however, we will not live to see Comrade Vitrenko's triumph; the Bankova Street boys are not that crazy. Most likely, they will stubbornly proceed with the Russian scenario. And we are in for big news, for we at last know who is to play the Russian Lebed in Ukraine, who received a post at the National Security Council between the campaign rounds, gave himself up to the current President, and to whom the President owes much of his success at the next elections. An informed source reports the scenario of the Ukrainian Lebed even before the first round: a media campaign promoting a People's Oversight Committee, to be launched at the end of August (Natalia Vitrenko seems to have mentioned the need to revive this structure). In the first half of September «in response to the working people's requests» [as the old Soviet propaganda clichО ran] the President will sign an edict establishing the committee. And the latter will set to work forthwith. One headline-making action is planned jointly with the CEC, to prevent breaches of the elections law by the media. Parallel to this, the press will launch an anti-Vitrenko campaign (the President-controlled media will, of course). At this point the President is expected to come out with a sharp demand that all this dirty propaganda campaign against a woman championing the people's interests be stopped at once. The people will applaud tearfully and, sometime at the end of September, the President will appoint purehearted Ms. Vitrenko chairperson of the People's Control Committee. This will be followed by official statements from candidates Kuchma and Vitrenko, leaving only one candidate in the end, with Comrade Natalia dancing The Dying Swan. She may not be hearing her political swan song, not yet, but the Russian campaign script writers are already rubbing their hands, awaiting the finale, feeling content with a strategic job done well. And this variation looks quite realistic, one has to admit. The point is, how far she is prepared to go and how well she is aware of the cynicism of the system that spent five years preparing the setting in which the Progressive Socialist Vitrenko was to demonstrate her remarkable accounting and monitoring skill, acting on behalf of the people. The leash is getting shorter and tighter. In Russia, General Lebed, under Boris Berezovsky's able guidance, was quickly taken out of political circulation, lost his post, but ended at the head of a rich domain (also with Mr. Berezovsky's help). In Ukraine, Natalia Vitrenko can hardly count on similar long-term and promising stratagems by the Russian oligarch and campaign script writers dispatched from Moscow. It is possible, however, that, being aware of the risks and dangers involved in the venture, she will have to face reality and accept an offer she cannot refuse. Just as Sumy Governor Shcherban telling the press he had helped finance the PSPU congress was not coincidental. Later, Mr. Pinchuk would recall helping Mrs. Vitrenko in Dnipropetrovsk. And Mr. Rabynovych, who has suddenly started working for Oleksandr Moroz (Rabynovych vs. Moroz? One does not have to live in Makashov's native land to realize what response this would receive from most people) may be recommended by the Presidential Administration to concentrate on the more prospective reminiscences dealing with PSPU. And then documents might surface, attesting to the fact that Bankova Street helped Ms. Vitrenko in every way possible, but not because Mrs. Vitrenko's and Mr. Razumkov's families are good friends (as she has so often been alleged, going into vivid details). And the day may come when no one will have any doubts that the impassioned champion of the opposition is in reality just another PA mouthpiece, playing Ukrainian Zhirinovsky (and doing so in return for special remuneration, or so all those malicious tongues say). Playing this role is simple enough: say whatever you like but do as you are told; don't upset big daddy, work to undermine his enemies.

Thus, if and when the People's Oversight Committee subject is broached it will mean that the Russian scenario has started being played out. Once again, Mr. Kuchma's number one adversary will be Petro Symonenko. Be it as it may, the colors on the campaign palette are becoming increasingly clear. Kostenko and Onopenko initiating a bloc as an alternative to the Marchuk-Moroz-Tkachenko «Big Three» is quite understandable. As for Mr. Kostenko, whether he has his Rukh or not is hard to say. He certainly has Mr. Zayets and other true adherents of the tactic developed by Vyacheslav Chornovil, whom they ousted. Now he is busy performing extremist anti-Left maneuvers. This is precisely where one can finally determine which part of Rukh is truer to its roots in struggling for winning over the national patriotic masses. And Mr. Onopenko deserves unbounded sympathy; having grown accustomed to being used and framed in every possible way, he is not likely to give a frank answer to the question, Will you side with Leonid Kuchma if he promises a deputy premiership? After the Greens' Kononov joined two outspoken Right centrists, with his idee fixe of avoiding Mr. Kuchma's wrath while not working for him, the bloc's idea leaves no doubt: self- preservation. Even after the «unidentified» Oliynyk, a man who keeps his ideas to himself, followed suit the overall impression remained the same.

In short, only the Marchuk- Moroz-Tkachenko triple alliance remains in the line of Bankova Street fire. Now it is reinforced by Yuri Karmazyn as an «active combatant» and it this alliance that will determine how well the other candidates will play the roles assigned them in the Bankova power play aimed at Leonid Kuchma's victory. Sometimes one finds oneself wondering that maybe today's Ukraine really deserves another Leonid Kuchma or Yuri Meshkov. Are we really poor Yoricks? Except for the President's people persistently voicing concern about the possibility of nullifying the election turnout, one might assume that they are doing just fine.

PS : «There is alarming information about the President shortly setting up a People's Oversight Committee with extensive powers, working in close cooperation with the Tax Administration,» Oleksandr Tkachenko said on August 20, addressing deputies of the Crimean Supreme Council and heads of local councils. «There are even candidates determined for the posts there. It is also possible that the Committee will be headed by an ardent anti-corruption champion who will carry out a promise made earlier, sending certain people to the uranium mines even before the election outcome. This new guillotine for administrators and businessmen may serve as the current President's key argument. I address these words to all administrators and business people: do not fear blackmail. It is organized by people wielding power who are weak and who do not trust their own strength. It is their agony. 72 days from now all transgressors of the elections law will be brought to justice and we will be their judges.»