Passing the Buck
According to a good tradition that has arisen in Ukraine’s homegrown democracy, the rules of the political game are established during the game, depending on who gets the upper hand at the time. The long-suffering parliamentary proportional representation elections bill, once passed by the parliament, is not likely to be adhered to by the election committee soon.
It is not that the law in its current wording has certain shortcomings, which could be overcome using the amendment procedure. It is that the proportional principle does not satisfy many, for, if finally enacted, it would end the political career of both individual deputies and whole party formations.
It would seem that Verkhovna Rada’s grandees are in a position to simply shrug it off; those knowledgeable about the alignment of forces in the parliament confidently predict the possibility of the proportional bill’s enactment even by a constitutional majority. The problem is that the elections will take place a year from now, but political life is here and now, gaining momentum and becoming less predictable with each passing day. In the permanent tripartite confrontation of the cabinet, parliament, and the president with its varying configurations, practically every deputy is worth his weight in hryvnias. Hence, the further the situation with the elections remain ambiguous, the easier it will be to maneuver between the interests of various forces represented in the highest legislative body.
Practically no one doubts that the president will veto the elections bill. The reason is obvious: the deputies accepted only 23 of the constitution’s guarantor’s 28 critical remarks. He will veto it most likely not because he is afraid of the election procedure using party lists, which would show a turnout predictably acceptable to Leonid Kuchma. The reason is different; by signing the elections law, the president would immediately lose a significant means of influencing parliament and political parties. After shooting the starting pistol in the parliamentary race, the head of state would risk seeing only the politicians’ backs the next instant, as everybody will dash out to collect votes. As it is, he still has a chance to reread the bill and correctly attach critical remarks or insist on the old ones.
Thus far, the parliamentary team has made a second rather strong pass in the political game round the elections bill, yet the team is not likely to relax, because the likely presidential veto will mean yet another pass, and this will go on until the last session before the elections when the alignment of forces will present the clearest possible picture.
