Pipeline Geopolitics

In the world news of recent weeks indisputable leadership belongs to the tragic developments in the Middle East where it seems the last expectations of the victory of common sense were lost as the beginning of new war is provoked. Fortunately the commotion concerning natural gas and gas pipelines cannot cause war, except perhaps a cold one, and concern only the Ukrainians and Poles, who still consider Kyiv to be their strategic partner. The problems are quite simple. Western Europe has “grown” into increasing gas and oil consumption. Especially when the situation in the Middle East is unpredictable, Norwegian resources do not seem to be vast, a common language with Russia somehow has to be found. In fact, it does not matter for the West exactly where the natural gas, oil, or something else required for everyday life comes from — the main thing is that it be guaranteed, high-quality, and relatively cheap. Thus the problem does not appear to be a political one for Western governments, and when Gas de France, Ruhrgas, and other companies sign protocols of intent with Gazprom, it is only the pursuance of their own interests rather than big-time politics, which naturally coincides with various interests of Russia. And if these interests differ from Ukraine’s — then that is our own problem.

The problems for Poland are rather psychological ones. Warsaw considers the existence of independent Ukraine to be a pledge of its more or less happy life in the European family, what it is consistently moving toward. Thus Ukraine becomes a natural strategic partner for it in spite of different nuances and rates of development, and its problems to some extent are Poland’s. Since the complete entry of Ukraine into the Russian sphere of influence as with Belarus does not quite coincide with Polish interests, Warsaw is looking for antidote and trying insofar as possible to knock until its European partners hear it. In fact, the dominant West European viewpoint, denied verbally by Western diplomacy but put into practice, shows that Ukraine has been referred precisely to the community led by Russia once and for all, and perhaps not without reason.

Warsaw has its own reasons for taking offense at the West. Indeed, one could have shown interest in its point of view concerning the problem, which is important for its necessities of life. In case the division into “junior” and “senior”allies in future united Europe is not being planned in fact. It cannot help but make the Poles, the Czechs and the Slovaks think seriously of their European prospects — by the way, absolutely irrespective of particular problem connected with gas pipelines. In fact, it could become the most serious repercussion of today’s troubles. It is perhaps precisely here that a field for Ukrainian diplomatic activity could have been found. As for Ukraine’s particular political and geopolitical problems connected with gas pipelines, their privatization and so on — maybe it would be worth thinking and taking into account all the options some years ago. And in the final analysis Russia also appears to be have the right to have its own interests.