Poland’s response to the G-8
Warsaw getting ready to talk energy with Kyiv
Poland is preparing its own “counter-summit” to deal with energy questions, in contrast to the G-8 summit scheduled for mid-July in St. Petersburg. The top-level meeting in the northern Russian capital is also supposed to discuss problems relating to energy security. This is precisely how one can interpret the initiative of Polish President Lech Kaczynski, who is organizing an informal meeting of the Ukrainian, Azerbjani, and Kazakh presidents in Poland.
The Polish president’s Web site reports that Viktor Yushchenko, Ilham Aliyev, and Nursaltan Nazarbayev have been invited to attend. The list of participants actually implies the subject of the upcoming talks: all these countries are united by energy questions (other countries may soon join). Ukraine and Poland are interested in implementing the Odesa- Brody oil supply project, while Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan are possible suppliers of “black gold.”
Astana and Baky want to diversify their energy supply sources. Ukraine is a transit country, interested in transporting the greatest possible amount of oil across its territory. In addition, Ukraine has the Odesa-Brody oil terminal, which is being used in reverse mode. Although it is pumping oil from Brody to Odesa, this pipeline was originally designed to transport Caspian oil to Poland and elsewhere in Western Europe. It is safe to assume that the informal top-level meeting in Poland will serve as a test of its participants’ ability to play a role on the regional level and prove that they are capable of defending their interests.
COMMENTARY
Anna GORSKA, Center for Eastern Studies, Warsaw:
Judging by the lineup of participants at this meeting, it is safe to assume that they will be discussing a range of energy issues. Poland is very interested in implementing joint energy supply projects. Work is underway to implement the Odesa-Brody project on a level high enough to prepare oil supply sources for the oil terminal that will be built in Poland and reach as far as Gdansk. The Polish company PKN Orlen, which purchased Lithuania’s oil refinery Mazeikiu Nafta, is taking a keen interest in this project; it wants to get Caspian oil and process it in Poland. Our country is very interested in realizing this project.
It is hard to say whether the scheduled top-level meeting will take place before the G-8 meeting in St. Petersburg in mid-July. It might. As for the agenda for the Polish, Ukrainian, Azerbaijani, and Kazakh heads of state, I believe that first and foremost they will discuss the Odesa-Brody-Gdansk pipeline options. We have spent years trying to promote this project, but it’s still hanging in mid-air. This time we can either continue as planned or forget all about it. I do hope that this summit will dot the i’s. We can’t afford to spend an entire decade discussing the need to build the Odesa-Brody-Gdansk pipeline. We must find people interested enough in oil deliveries and in paying for them. I think the latter won’t be a problem. There are lots of Caspian oil consumption options. The main thing is to start receiving this oil. We know that Ukraine plans to build an oil refinery in Brody and that preparations are being made. Poland could pay for some of this oil to improve its Urals-grade supplied from Russia; there is also an opportunity to supply this oil to the Czech Republic’s oil exchange.
I think that Viktor Yushchenko and Lech Kaczynski will meet after the formation of a new government in Ukraine. Poland expects the creation of a coalition. There are circles in our country that are perhaps emotionally interested in seeing a new Orange coalition. Others allow for the possibility of a broader coalition. We adopted a normal stand with regard to the fact that Ukraine’s Party of Regions received almost 34 percent of the votes. This party represents a sizable region where it has undeniable support. So it is difficult to imagine a Ukrainian government running your country without the Party of Regions.
I think that some quarters might adopt a negative attitude to this from the outset. I also think that there will be understanding and the groundwork will be prepared so that people will accept a coalition of the Party of Regions and Our Ukraine, or maybe even a broader coalition. What we are waiting for, above all, is an opportunity to cooperate with a normal government. At first, a lot of time was spent on the election campaign, now on the formation of a coalition. Half a year is a long period of time.
