Post-election Syndrome
Ukraine is on the verge of a major political crisis after the presidential runoff. November 22, CEC, after processing 98.23% of the ballots, announced that government-nominated candidate Viktor Yanukovych has scored 49.57% and Viktor Yushchenko 46.57%. Since Sunday night a massive rally in support of fair elections has been underway on Maidan Nezalezhnosti (Independence Sq.). Various Internet sources point to some 100,000 participants. Around noon Viktor Yushchenko’s supporters set about erecting a tent city. Some 135 tents have been mounted at press time, but more are being set up. According to the activists of the youth organization Pora, they will hold the fort until the powers that be recognize Viktor Yushchenko’s victory. There is no information about the tent city residents’ action plan.
Renowned Kyiv political scientist Volodymyr FESENKO commented on the post-election situation for The Day.
The morning of November 22 filled one with a dОjЗ vu sensation. Everything seemed so very like the first round of the elections. On November 1, the Central Election Committee announced that Yanukovych was in the lead and 94% election commission protocols had been processed by one p.m. Now once again the outcome is in suspense.
There are substantial distinctions, however. The voter turnout has noticeably increased, although it is usually lower in the runoff. Good to know that the civic consciousness and activity are up, isn’t it? Probably, but there are warning signals. The Donbas has once again set a turnout record: 96%. Something never previously in independent Ukraine. During the previous presidential runoff (1994), Lviv oblast came first: 92%. The constituencies in Ternopil oblast were traditionally active (91% in the 1994 runoff and 90% in 1999). In contrast, Donetsk oblast showed only 65% in 1994 and 75% in 1999 (owing to the dedicated efforts of the then governor Viktor Yanukovych). Of course, there is the theoretical possibility that the Donbas decided to back their celebrated fellow countryman Stakhanov-like.
However, a Soviet voter turnout percentage in the current Central Asian political reality inevitably calls into question the democratic vote in the miners’ region.
Higher voter turnouts in the eastern and southern territories played into Yanukovych’s hand and the premier’s team relied on this resources before the runoff.
Exit poll turnouts show that Viktor Yushchenko is in the lead. Unlike October 31, both principal exit polls registered the Strength of the People Coalition leader’s victory, although the turnouts varied considerably (due to the differences in the polling techniques). Regrettably, exit polls have a moral and political rather than legal meaning.
A likely outcome is the official announcement of Viktor Yanukovych’s victory, with Viktor Yushchenko and his team adamantly rejecting its legitimacy, echoed by numerous international observers. There are more than enough reasons to doubt the fairness and democratic nature of this presidential campaign. In fact, this campaign has proved exceptionally dirty, but it is also true that both sides will challenge turnouts in certain constituencies. With some 2% difference in the candidates’ final score, a legal war after the elections is inevitable.
The elections are over, but the winner will most likely be determined after the “third round” — a political and legal confrontation between the administrative and civic resources, between the administrative system, which is considerably weaker but still strong enough, and a figuratively as well as literally young civil society.
Last but not least. The presidential campaign has once again politically split Ukraine. This rift will occur, to a greater or lesser degree, during every presidential campaign, with the head of state having the current authority. It is during such elections that the winner takes it all, meaning that politicians and campaign architects are too strongly tempted to make the most of objective ethnic cultural and socioeconomic distinctions between separate Ukrainian regions to gain the coveted victory.
Time to reach conclusions. Only a transition to the parliamentary-presidential system will eliminate this problem and will encourage our politicians to seek compromises and come to terms when building parliamentary coalitions, rather than plunge into confrontations.
