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Where there is no law, but every man does what is right in his own eyes, there is the least of real liberty
Henry M. Robert

Problem of the Year 2000

6 March, 1999 - 00:00

Where will Valery Pustovoitenko greet the New Year?

By Dmytro SKRIABIN, The Day

China ordered all civil airlines' managers to meet the New Year airborne.
This will be their way to report on solving the 2000 problem.

'WE WANT TO KNOW WHAT TO EXPECT

IN UKRAINE COME

JANUARY 1, 2000'

In late February, the US Chamber of Commerce held a seminar on The 2000
Problem in Ukraine attended by representatives of US airlines in Ukraine,
experts, and members of a commission attached to the Cabinet of Ministers
of Ukraine.

Illia KUTSENKO (Cabinet's Board of Experts): "To solve this problem
we must combine our efforts and we lack the time, financial resources,
and uniform methods."

Oleksandr Baranov, Chairman of the 2000 Problem Commission, Director
General of the State Informatization Agency: "The 2000 problem has been
existence long enough. We analyzed it and proposed a special commission.
Tentative estimates point to over 10,000 data processing systems in Ukraine,
many of which are susceptible to this problem. Premier Pustovoitenko instructed
us to locate the most vulnerable points. We are working on it and will
have results in about two months. We don't have enough money and equipment.
Officials at all levels must be made aware of this problem as not a global
but local one in the first place, one that concerns each and everyone of
them."

Volodymyr FURASHEV, Secretary of the 2000 Problem Commission:
"The government is very seriously concerned about this problem. Work in
this direction has been underway for the past 2-3 years. Over this period
we have studied measures taken elsewhere in the world. The Prime Minister
made it perfectly clear that if worst comes to worst our most vulnerable
points will be secured: transport, power industry, and the social sector.
The Ukrainian mentality is such that we count on our own resources in the
first place."

Serhiy PARASHYN, head of and Twenty-First Century Power Industry
and Information Sciences International Center and former manager of Chornobyl
nuclear plant: "I am thunderstruck by the scope of this problem. In terms
of labor intensiveness it is considerably bigger than the Chornobyl one.
Yet the problem itself is simple; all it takes is correcting the date format,
but this involves a mind-boggling number of interrelated data processing
and control systems. After that these systems must be tested with jeweler's
precision. A complex made up of 100 linked computers will be out of service
if even a single computer goes wrong. What really scares me, however, is
complaisance. We are lagging behind in every respect. Other countries'
experience shows that finding a truly effective solution to this problems
takes at least two years. Here the situation is aggravated by the fact
that a great many first rate Ukrainian programmers have left Ukraine for
good. Managers in the vast majority of organizations have no idea about
the problem. The government commission was set up ten days ago, causing
no media comment.

"The main thing is to be aware of the fact that this is not a technical
but organizational problem. An expert estimate has it that we need at least
Hr 140 million, and we need it in half a year."

Serhiy RACHYNSKY, Computer World Kyiv magazine: "There
are three groups of bureaucrats involved in coping with this problem. The
first group consists of managers of certain organizations. They need to
know about a systematic approach to the problem and they must decide on
the work to be done. And more often than not these people don't know what
they're doing. The second group represents middle management; they know
about the problem, but have to wait for instructions from superiors. The
third group is made up of computer experts. They know everything there
is to know about the problem; they also know how to solve the problem technically,
but they cannot organize complex works, not even at their own firms, let
alone an industry or the entire country. We are planning to develop a web-site
containing all relevant data available."

Neil GLENNY, World Bank specialist: "My job is to assess all
possible risks in Ukraine after the 2000 computer effect. I was flabbergasted
to learn that so few people know about the problem in Ukraine. In the West
we make arrangements well in advance, as a rule, not at the last moment.
There is something I would like to emphasize in particular. You practice
an approach whereby every expert must do his job well and everything will
be fine. Our approach in the West is different: there is strict public
monitoring of how everyone does what job. Another difference in our approaches
to the 2000 problem is that it is considered a most important administrative
priority in the West. In Ukraine, it is generally regarded as technical.
Another thing worrying me is that I haven't seen any contingency planning.
In Ukraine you often say that a given problem can't be solved quickly for
want of money. Let me tell you: even if you have enough money things have
to be done on time."

When asked by The Day why the US Chamber of Commerce organized
the 2000 problem seminar in Ukraine, Emmy GENGLER, seminar coordinator,
chair of the Chamber's Informatization Technologies and Telecommunications
Committee, replied, "We want to know what to expect in Ukraine come January
1, 2000. We also want to help you solve this problem, relying on US and
other developed countries' experience."

The Day's next question was, "Seminar participants have often
mentioned lack of funds. Yet the Cabinet decided to allocate Hr 12 million
for the acquisition of a tomograph for the Cabinet's polyclinic. This amount
is almost one-tenth of 140 million needed to solve the problem and the
decision was made February 26, shortly before the seminar. Is the government
fully aware of the 2000 problem?"

To this Oleksandr Baranov replied that purchasing the tomograph was
a scheduled transaction and assured that the government is fully aware
of the problem. Volodymyr Furashev was surprised to hear about 140 million,
saying the exact amount could be cited only after summing up preliminary
work estimates. When asked about how soon such estimates would be available,
he stressed that expecting any findings before March 1 was unrealistic,
and that March 20 sounded more like it.

Among the suggestions voiced at the seminar this author would single
out the one made by Djois SRONIPAH of Microsoft Corporation about
uniting the efforts of computer experts in private companies to correct
programs whose authors emigrated from Ukraine and supplied by firms that
are no longer in existence.

However, the most intriguing proposal was about President Kuchma spending
half his campaign time on collecting data on the 2000 problem and half
his campaign funds on payments to programmers struggling to solve it.

(This author would like to thank the organizers of the Power Industry
and Information Sciences in the Twenty-First Century conference for data,
and Ms. Svitlana Symonenko for her kind invitation to the seminar.)

 

Where will Valery Pustovoitenko greet the New Year?
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