Question of <I>The Day</I>

Zynovy KULYK, political scientist:

“The Ukrainian authorities behave today the way the opposition allows them to. In fact, it is the moves of the opposition that cause the greatest disappointment. Public opinion polls show that at the beginning of the cassette scandal 36% responded they were not surprised by the authorities’ actions. So what surprises me in this case is, pardon my tautology, the position of the opposition, which is aimed only at destruction. The question of Ukraine without Kuchma but with whom still remains unanswered. Moreover, the opposition obviously has no concrete program to combat the authorities, in spite of all its declarations. And the main thing is I absolutely agree with your editor-in-chief who said a Radio Liberty talk show that the time of destruction has long passed.

“On the other hand, those in power are doing their best to let the opposition flourish and prosper. Take, for example, the latest actions to remove the tent town, which was quietly dying a natural death. Kyivans and visitors of the capital got so used to it that they paid almost no attention to it. Its dwellers were doing nothing concrete but from handing out agitation literature. Thus with due account of the weather conditions and, so to speak, the discomfort of staying in tents, it was to be expected that the tent town organizers would fold it up (the more so that they announced shifting their stress to the regions). But the authorities did their best to attract more attention to it. Today, tomorrow, and the day after tomorrow, all the television channels and newspaper front pages will be showing footage of the tent town’s removal. In other words, those in power thus took another step to let the opposition revitalize its movement. It is too little to assess this as an ill-conceived action. Apparently, one should look deeper. We have spoken so long about a third force — it obviously exists because there can be no other explanation. Or, perhaps, there can be another explanation: the intellectual laziness of the presidential entourage. The latter is so browbeaten today that it fails to offer the president several options and forecast the consequences of their implementation. Everybody stands at attention, waiting for the president to make a decision.

“Obviously, if the opposition goes to the regions to face labor collectives, it will encounter what is known as civic indifference. I think they will feel disappointment quite soon. On the other hand, should strong-arm actions prevail to the detriment of a normal dialog, this will gradually form (there are some signs of this) a political coalition which will want to play the lead role in the dispute between the president and opposition and wield absolute power in our state.”

“March and the first half of April will see the third wave of the current so-called scandal. There will be quite serious pressure from the foreign media, which will influence opinions and politicians. I think we will very soon feel mounting pressure from Europe and the US. If somebody hopes Russia will help us in this case, he is deeply mistaken because Russia has problems of its own: resumed funding of the star wars project, announced by George Bush, is a serious factor of US pressure upon Russia. If Russia has to choose between making a deal with America about not resuming the arms race, which Russia will not sustain for objective reasons, and supporting Ukraine and its authorities, it will opt for the former. In this situation, the only way out for the authorities is to negotiate with the opposition, which, frankly, they should have already done. Should this be put off further, a time could come when, even if those in power are willing to talk with the opposition, neither the latter nor the West will want to encourage them to do so.

“Following this, the only diagnosis to be made is political lethality. There is no question of early parliamentary elections because we lack the legislative and economic basis for this today. The economic basis, interests of the main politico-financial groups, have not been concentrated. For at least a year they have needed to be able to form a government of their own or under their control and to accumulate money, media capacities, and administrative resources to win the elections in March 2002. For this reason early elections would be a nice present for the Communists. And I don’t think our Right and, let us say, those of a pragmatic financial orientation will choose this. This is why the political situation is most likely to develop around the confrontation between the anti-presidential opposition and the president. I don’t share the view that the confrontation is waning. In my opinion, it will continue to unfold and lead to a true political crisis followed by economic complications, the suspension of international aid, and all the ensuing negative consequences.”

Vyacheslav KREDYSOV, chairman of the board, Nova Formatsiya all-Ukrainian association of entrepreneurs:

“In a country with a democratic system far from the most exemplary, electing people’s deputies of various levels is always an extravaganza of shows and spectacles. Ukraine is going to hold the scheduled elections in March next year. I think this year, especially in the last six months, voters will see manna from heaven in the form of gas supplies to far-off villages, and charitable pop shows, as well as hear an untold number of promises from Ukraine’s best orators.“In this connection I don’t forecast any great political and economic upheavals. What I can predict is the huge amount of information (true and downright false) being showered on the heads of voters.

“In terms of over a year, I will refrain from forecasting our future until Ukraine makes its final choice, i.e., restructures itself from within and decides who its foreign partners are.”

Yuri SAYENKO, economics Ph.D. and chair, department of social expert surveys, Institute of Sociology, Ukrainian National Academy of Sciences:

“Ukraine is most likely in for the Belarus option in the nearest future. I say this with utmost pain and great fear for each of us. This is evidenced, first of all, by the statements and behavior of the president and his team. We played one game when some US senators were here and quite a different one when they left. “I don’t see so far anything that could stop Ukraine going this way. Democratic evolution and genuine true democratic forces in this country have been so weakened as to be practically invisible. The West is not playing any visible role in shaping Ukraine’s destiny either. I have the impression that the West is biding its time, for it impossible not to react to the latest developments in Ukraine.”