QUESTION OF THE DAY
Oleksandr DERHACHOV, political scientist:
Unlike all the other contenders, Viktor Yanukovych as the next premier could get support not only from Verkhovna Rada’s Nine, but also from some of the opposition factions. The big question, however, is precisely how he will get this backing, considering the absence of a legal framework. Under the circumstances, it is apparent that he will have to make do with temporary arrangements, cooperation proposals made in exchange for votes, yet none of the Four factions can fully rely on this option. In other words, Yanukovych does stand a chance of collecting the required number of votes in parliament, but there is absolutely no vehicle to secure cooperation between the cabinet and Verkhovna Rada. After all, it is possible to assume that the new premier, with his Donetsk experience, will be able to operate without the parliament, in the hands-on mode, relying on the president’s support and key groups’ understanding. In this sense, he will, of course, be able to carry out certain tactical tasks. But there are also the strategic prospects; here a remake of the 1999 scenario is a strong likelihood, meaning a tactical alliance in order to keep in power in the long run.
As regards the economic consequences of Yanukovych’s premiership, everything will depend on the status of the budget bill. Kinakh was shown the door because of his “inability to solve social problems.” The new government should make a clear statement on precisely how different they are from the previous cabinet.
Mykhailo POHREBYNSKY, director, Kyiv Center for Political and Conflict Studies:
Any change of government has at least two innovating aspects to it: (a) the threat of new people being appointed and having to be brought up to date — in other words, a factor slowing down economic growth; (b) the opposite trend, meaning new expectations in conjunction with the new cabinet, the possibility of new priorities in the economic domain. Over the past couple of months we have witnessed a trend placing economic growth at a standstill. The new cabinet will obviously have to get over this negative trend, getting the economy back in the accelerated development vein, at least reviving the rate registered a year ago. In other words, the new government means hopes for a fresh impetus to the Ukrainian economy, although it is hard to say at this stage which of the said aspects will play the dominant role.
Talking of the political aspect, everything will depend on how well the new cabinet will be able to cooperate with the majority in parliament. The thing is that our cabinet is programmed to operate with an eye to the interests and priorities of factions backing the premier and his government; arrangements are sure to be made to support the new cabinet’s lawmaking initiatives. This will mean our entering a phase of a more stable political growth, in the sense that work in the parliament will be unblocked, that Verkhovna Rada and the government will be able to join efforts, working for the benefit of this country rather than to protect themselves from certain destabilizing factors.
