Question of <I>The Day</I>
The Ukrainian government has completed its draft action plan for joining the World Trade Organization (WTO), Vice Premier Vasyl Rohovy announced recently. This is a multifaceted plan, he said, including the steps that must be taken by Ukraine. “We are preparing an ambitious program and must complete it by yearend,” he said. The deputy head of government is convinced that “joining the WTO will call for the efforts by Verkhovna Rada and the Ukrainian people, not merely the government.” The situation on world markets does not allow Ukraine to delay its entry in the WTO, he declared. Interfax-Ukraine quotes Mr. Rohovy as saying, “If we fail to make our entry quick and effective, Ukraine will face a number of problems that could affect its attractiveness to investors, movement toward Europe, and the country’s prestige.”
Oleksandr SERHIYENKO , Director of the Department of Economic Analysis, International Institute of Comparative Analysis:
From the viewpoint of Ukraine’s current economic potential and the assortment of goods sold, we are definitely not prepared to join the WTO, as in this case we would lose more than what we are losing being outside it. Taking into account that we cannot protect our exporters properly and they have to fend for themselves, consequently, there will be pressure on Ukraine to enter the WTO. Paradoxically, Ukraine is losing its exporters because it is not a WTO member state. On the other hand, I am not convinced that joining the world trade system will be a major boon for Ukraine. Following the official antidumping investigations against our metallurgical exports and barriers erected in Europe against Ukrainian food exports, to join or not to join the WTO makes little sense, as accession will only legalize Ukraine’s status and not remove the prospect of new antidumping investigations. We should be fully aware of this. Antidumping investigations take place when domestic lobbies (in the United States, Columbia, Bolivia, or anywhere else) begin to protest our exports, and WTO membership has nothing to do with them. That is why I think there is no need for Ukraine to join the WTO. Otherwise, we will only assume additional restrictions on ourselves, something we should not do today. By the way, even the United States is beginning to question the role of the WTO, and I do not rule out the possibility that the strongest economy in the world would pull out of it. It is unclear how this organization would function without the USA.
Oleh YAREMENKO , Doctor of Science in economics, Professor and Chair, People’s Ukrainian Academy (Kharkiv):
Most probably, the consequences of joining the WTO will be negative for Ukraine because it is not ready either structurally, institutionally or technologically to open its economy to the outside world. As for the long-term perspective, the consequences could be twofold. On the one hand, and this is a positive result, Ukraine would integrate into the world economy, with the latter’s resources and financial flows becoming available to it. On the other hand, external factors will get the upper hand over domestic economic priorities, something not quite so good. Following the collapse of the Soviet Union ten years ago, the Ukrainian economy found itself in a semi-exposed condition which led to technological, social, and structural shock. That is why there are no guarantees the same shock might not be repeated, and I am ambivalent about joining the WTO, simultaneously understanding that we have no other choice. In my view, Ukraine needs about ten years to straighten out its internal structural, technological, social, and institutional problems. Once a small element of the global economic order, Ukraine will not be able to carry out such transformations. In the course of this decade Ukraine must shape a viable national system of institutions and update the economic structure it inherited from the former command economic system that excluded competition and participation in the world division of labor. If we fail to implement these reforms we will again be unprepared. As experience shows, shock is not always a guarantee of progress.
Anatoly MOROZOV , Doctor of Science in economics, President of the Academy of Technological Sciences of Ukraine:
To join the WTO, Ukraine needs state-of-the-art technologies and viable enterprises, for nobody in the world will buy obsolete goods. Beyond doubt, Ukraine must join the WTO, but it must thoroughly prepare for such a step. The most difficult question is when Ukraine will be ready to join the WTO. This will happen when the Ukrainian economy turns the corner and the need to introduce the newest technologies, at least in some priority sectors, finally sinks in and is implemented. It makes little sense to join the global economic system having nothing but raw materials to sell.
Oleh TURETSKY , Doctor of Science in economics, Chair, Department of Economics and Modeling Market Relations, Odesa Mechnykov National University:
The advantage of joining the WTO, in the first case, consists in receiving quotas on various markets. Still, in my opinion, Ukraine is not quite ready today to enter this organization. The big question of what Ukraine will sell remains, as the quality of our goods does not often meet international standards. My guess is that Ukraine will need at least five years to prepare for making a bid to join the WTO. We need to introduce international standards of quality and modernize production.
