Reality after Vilnius

Clearly, current events in Ukraine are in the focus of world mass media, politicians, and experts. There is one more important thing: both the West and Russia look at Maidan almost in the same way, because both sides understand that Ukraine’s civilization choice is being made now and political map of Europe is being shaped. Interestingly, the Kyiv events are a result of the Vilnius Summit of the Eastern Partnership, which took place in the capital of Lithuania on November 28-29. This is the opinion of many experts who took part in the seminar on “Eastern Partnership after Vilnius: problems and prospects,” which took place on December 11 in Vilnius.

In particular, Director of the Center for Eastern Studies Olaf Osica (Poland) noted that after Vilnius it became clear that it is impossible to sit on a fence anymore and that there is a need to choose the side. According to him, the Eastern Partnership broke the status quo and created a big problem for Yanukovych, who in his effort to get an agreement with Russia met a resistance of Ukrainians, which was not planned at the summit in Vilnius. Osica says the EU for the first time was not divided concerning the results of the summit, rather it was united on the questions of Eastern Partnership and role of Russia, which made Armenia refuse from initialing the prepared Association Agreement and Ukraine – stop the process of signing the initialed agreement.

Mr. Osica considers that mass actions in Ukraine, which this time were not aimed at protesting against falsification of the elections, but demanded reforms and aspiration to become part of Europe, is a clear signal that Ukrainians are fed up with the policy of current government. So, he emphasized, the EU has a chance to continue the Eastern Partnership, because even those countries which did not care about the Eastern Partnership have understood what the stakes in this game are and how important the geopolitical moment is.

The Polish expert considers that after the Vilnius Summit it became clear that the Eastern Partnership has a geopolitical dimension: Osica noted that although they were not speaking about geopolitics and Eastern Partnership was meant to remove contradictions and ease the tension, the reaction from the side has shown and defined this initiative as a geopolitical one. Russia is more concerned that Ukraine one day may become a better place for investments than Russia. In fact, the more people understand this, in particular, the adherents of the Customs Union and reconciliation with Russia, the sooner Ukraine will get out from the bog. For none of the countries which have entered the Customs Union has anything to boast.

Chairman of the Center for Legal and Political Studies “Soglasie” David Shakhnazarian (Armenia) paid attention to the fact that the decisions in the Customs Union are made by a supranational body of Armenia, which makes the decisions for Armenia, including the questions of foreign policy. On September 3, when the president agreed to join the Customs Union, the process was launched which will make Armenia a part of the Russian empire.

After 23 years of independence Armenia is losing its sovereignty and, unfortunately, the EU did not understand that it was impossible to maintain relations equally with the Eastern Partnership and Russia. The Armenian expert considers that Brussels should work more with civil society, promoting the values and human rights; otherwise the situation will get worse than in Russia.

Shakhnazarian also considers Ukrainian events crucial for the future of his country. “People in Maidan are fighting not only for the future of their country, the future of Central and Eastern Europe on the whole, but also for my country’s future,” he emphasized.

Meanwhile, Denis Cenusa, who represented the Expert-Group Analytical Center (Moldova) at the seminar, mentioned that Ukraine is an important member of Eastern Partnership, whereas Georgia is important in the Caucasus, and the EU should make emphasis namely on these two countries, which will change the political map of Europe.

The Moldovan expert admitted that 2014 will be a challenge year for Moldova, when parliamentary elections will take place and some people now are predicting that Communists will win and probably change the course. Cenusa thinks that it is too early to raise the alarm in this concern, for it is unknown whether they will win the majority in parliament, but on the other hand they will have to explain why they refuse from the course towards the EU integration, which was taken in 2005.

His Moldovan colleague, Viorel Chivriga, Economic Expert, Institute for Development and Social Initiatives (IDIS “Viitorul”) made an interesting note: Ukraine is a big and important state, but if the reforms are not taking place there, rather an imitation of reforms, our last hope is that Miadan succeeds; otherwise the change of course of the country is inevitable. He also emphasized that EU needs to promote more the projects which were realized in Moldova and not to lose the information war to Russia in this concern. Chivriga reminded that on April 7, 2009, Moldova had a “maidan” of its own, when civil society defended the European course.

Head of the analysis of foreign policy issues department of the Center for Strategic Studies (SAM) Rovshan Ibrahimov (Azerbaijan) paid attention to the fact that the EU is practically doing nothing, when a country faces difficulties during implementation of the reforms, like it was in Georgia. So, the Azerbaijani expert considers that the Eastern Partnership should become a stage on the way to EU membership.