Red Bulls in the Geopolitical China Shop

As for world developments, they could well form the backdrop of a third world war. The United States affirms its status as superpower and there is no denying the fact. Russia tries to remind everyone that it is still great but is not doing too well. Meanwhile the President of Ukraine, it being a strategic partner of both, rides in a royal carriage and addresses the Swedish Parliament just as the Verkhovna Rada debates canceling Ukraine's nuclear-free status, in other words encroaching on one of the underlying national principles, and the Speaker, heard nationwide, promises to rescind media accreditation for its "biased coverage."

But of course, it would seem more important to understand precisely how Mr. Primakov's jet with its sudden U-turn (described by Izvestiya as a "sinister symbol of the present day"), supposedly capable of changing Russia's political and economic picture, will change Ukraine's foreign policy course. After all, Russia remains with its principles that are "not for sale" and with IMF money. The fact that Mr. Camdessus wants to fly after Mr. Primakov is merely additional evidence that the two are playing a game of their own. Both know that Russia to save face will come out with more threats of "adequate measures including military ones," but will go no further and will receive another handout as a hungry but nuclear power. But where does Ukraine fit into the pattern?

"This Left onslaught was caused precisely by the inconsistent stand taken by the executive and presidential structures," believes Ivan Zayets, First Deputy Chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee. "The Russian regime and Russian Left, using the Ukrainian Left and the political leadership's inconsistent stand, succeeded in placing Ukraine in the front ranks of Russia's anti-Western campaign."

Great. The next thing we see is a Russian Defense Ministry functionary on NTV, offering as another argument against the "aggressor" that Ukraine intends to cancel its nuclear-free status, just like Belarus. We see and hear Moscow residents discuss Russia, Belarus, Ukraine, and Serbia forming an anti-aggression bloc. And this when everyone knows that Russia, while waving threateningly at the "aggressor" with one hand, keeps its other one in its wallet. And what about Ukraine? Is it supposed to be the outpost of Russia's anti-Western policy? The Ukrainian Left is happy following this course with no one to hinder its doing so (e.g., Interparliamentary Assembly, Sevastopol accords, Kosovo stand). And there is just the possibility that the Ukrainian President is happy; by stepping on the red bench placed by the Left he will be in a better position to look Boris Yeltsin in their eyes: you need a Ukrainian Lukashenka? You don't have to look for one elsewhere. Let me try.

It is difficult to understand what Leonid Kuchma meant when he said, "We need neither a pro-Russian policy with its prospect of joining the Union, nor the pro-Western one with the prospect of joining NATO." Only a person versed in explaining Ukraine's "multivector" politics can place an equal sign between the loss of national sovereignty and NATO guarantees of national security.

As for the domestic situation, there are two possible scenarios. The first is to let Parliament cross the line. The Deputy Foreign Minister told the Solons that they better watch their step, for Ukraine has its Declaration of Independence with its neutrality and nuclear-free status. In other words, going any further in this direction would mean encroaching on the sovereign rights of and endangering the state, a situation in which the Chief Executive, abiding by the Constitution, would order Parliament dissolved. And by the way, was it coincidental that Foreign Minister Tarasiuk and NSDC Secretary Horbulin asked the parliamentary leadership to debate the NATO issue with live coverage? Could it be to prepare international public opinion?

But there is also another possibility that the current President is fruitfully making use of the Left's efforts: Ukraine, led by the leftists to the Kremlin wall, could decide that Leonid Kuchma has finally fulfilled his 1994 campaign promises for a rapprochement with Russia and dividing the two countries would be heartless.