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Where there is no law, but every man does what is right in his own eyes, there is the least of real liberty
Henry M. Robert

Red Bulls in the Geopolitical China Shop

30 March, 1999 - 00:00

By Tetiana KOROBOVA, The Day

What is happening at Verkhovna Rada can be described as the beginning of
a change in Ukraine's foreign policy and events centered in Kosovo serve
to stimulate the process. The Left are euphoric and they have a point there.
Borys Oliynyk's tactless remark, "I am not going to die among some khokhols
meeting other occupiers with bread and salt," caused an ovation and shouts
"Shame on Rukh!"

As for world developments, they could well form the backdrop of a third
world war. The United States affirms its status as superpower and there
is no denying the fact. Russia tries to remind everyone that it is still
great but is not doing too well. Meanwhile the President of Ukraine, it
being a strategic partner of both, rides in a royal carriage and addresses
the Swedish Parliament just as the Verkhovna Rada debates canceling Ukraine's
nuclear-free status, in other words encroaching on one of the underlying
national principles, and the Speaker, heard nationwide, promises to rescind
media accreditation for its "biased coverage."

But of course, it would seem more important to understand precisely
how Mr. Primakov's jet with its sudden U-turn (described by Izvestiya
as a "sinister symbol of the present day"), supposedly capable of changing
Russia's political and economic picture, will change Ukraine's foreign
policy course. After all, Russia remains with its principles that are "not
for sale" and with IMF money. The fact that Mr. Camdessus wants to fly
after Mr. Primakov is merely additional evidence that the two are playing
a game of their own. Both know that Russia to save face will come out with
more threats of "adequate measures including military ones," but will go
no further and will receive another handout as a hungry but nuclear power.
But where does Ukraine fit into the pattern?

"This Left onslaught was caused precisely by the inconsistent stand
taken by the executive and presidential structures," believes Ivan Zayets,
First Deputy Chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee. "The Russian regime
and Russian Left, using the Ukrainian Left and the political leadership's
inconsistent stand, succeeded in placing Ukraine in the front ranks of
Russia's anti-Western campaign."

Great. The next thing we see is a Russian Defense Ministry functionary
on NTV, offering as another argument against the "aggressor" that Ukraine
intends to cancel its nuclear-free status, just like Belarus. We see and
hear Moscow residents discuss Russia, Belarus, Ukraine, and Serbia forming
an anti-aggression bloc. And this when everyone knows that Russia, while
waving threateningly at the "aggressor" with one hand, keeps its other
one in its wallet. And what about Ukraine? Is it supposed to be the outpost
of Russia's anti-Western policy? The Ukrainian Left is happy following
this course with no one to hinder its doing so (e.g., Interparliamentary
Assembly, Sevastopol accords, Kosovo stand). And there is just the possibility
that the Ukrainian President is happy; by stepping on the red bench placed
by the Left he will be in a better position to look Boris Yeltsin in their
eyes: you need a Ukrainian Lukashenka? You don't have to look for one elsewhere.
Let me try.

It is difficult to understand what Leonid Kuchma meant when he said,
"We need neither a pro-Russian policy with its prospect of joining the
Union, nor the pro-Western one with the prospect of joining NATO." Only
a person versed in explaining Ukraine's "multivector" politics can place
an equal sign between the loss of national sovereignty and NATO guarantees
of national security.

As for the domestic situation, there are two possible scenarios. The
first is to let Parliament cross the line. The Deputy Foreign Minister
told the Solons that they better watch their step, for Ukraine has its
Declaration of Independence with its neutrality and nuclear-free status.
In other words, going any further in this direction would mean encroaching
on the sovereign rights of and endangering the state, a situation in which
the Chief Executive, abiding by the Constitution, would order Parliament
dissolved. And by the way, was it coincidental that Foreign Minister Tarasiuk
and NSDC Secretary Horbulin asked the parliamentary leadership to debate
the NATO issue with live coverage? Could it be to prepare international
public opinion?

But there is also another possibility that the current President is
fruitfully making use of the Left's efforts: Ukraine, led by the leftists
to the Kremlin wall, could decide that Leonid Kuchma has finally fulfilled
his 1994 campaign promises for a rapprochement with Russia and dividing
the two countries would be heartless.

 

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