Romney has come

Although it is common knowledge that foreign policy does not in fact play any role in US presidential races, the contenders for this office traditionally visit Europe a few months before the elections. In particular, Barack Obama did so in 2008, visiting seven countries in the course of his European tour. Many still remember his speech in Berlin, where the black candidate for the office of Whites House head received a star’s welcome.

Last week the Republican candidate Mitt Romney began his tour of Europe. On the eve of this journey, not to break with the tradition that criticizing opponents on a foreign territory is a taboo for US politicians and statesmen, Romney subjected his Democratic rival’s foreign and security policy to scathing criticism in his speech in Nevada. He did this at the Veterans of Foreign Wars Convention, a traditional stopover for US presidential candidates. Romney said in his one-and-a-half-our-long speech that the Obama administration had exposed national security to danger by betraying the US allies Poland and the Czech Republic and beginning to “reset” the relations with Russia.

“The operating principle of American foreign policy has been to work with our allies so that we can deter aggression before it breaks out into open conflict. That policy depends on nurturing our alliances and standing up for our common values. Yet the president has moved in the opposite direction. It began with the sudden abandonment of friends in Poland and the Czech Republic. They had courageously agreed to provide sites for our anti-missile systems, only to be told, at the last hour, that the agreement was off. As part of the so-called reset in policy, missile defenses were sacrificed as a unilateral concession to the Russian government,” Romney emphasized.

In his opinion, the Obama administration’s plans to win Russia’s favor by means of this “unilateral concession” have come unstuck and made the White House dependent on the Russian leaders. “It is a mistake – and sometimes a tragic one – to think that firmness in American foreign policy can bring only tension or conflict. The surest path to danger is always weakness and indecision. In the end, it is resolve that moves events in our direction, and strength that keeps the peace,” Romney said.

He emphasized that he would develop closer ties with Israel and would take a tougher attitude to Russia and China. The Republican candidate made a still harsher statement on Iran, calling it a “catastrophic threat.” “I pledge to you and to all Americans that if I become commander-in-chief, I will use every means necessary to protect ourselves and the region, and to prevent the worst from happening while there is still time,” Romney said.

Observers believe that the European tour will let the Massachusetts ex-governor position himself as an international statesman and a strong opponent to Obama who, according to US opinion polls, outstrips Romney in the matters of security and foreign policy. For this purpose, in the course of his tour, Romney will meet the prime ministers of the UK, Israel, the Palestinian Autonomy, and Poland, as well as opposition party leaders.

And Romney perhaps wants to use his presence at the Olympic Games opening ceremony in London to remind the public that the 2002 winter Olympics in Salt Lake City were held thanks to his financial contribution.

Visiting Israel, Romney will try to oppose himself to Obama who never visited that country as US president and, moreover, maintains rather cool relations with Benjamin Netanyahu.

On the other hand, the status of candidate prevented Romney from being received by the Polish Premier Donald Tusk in Warsaw. Therefore, not to break the protocol, he will receive the American guest in his native city of Gdansk. Incidentally, US publications note that Romney is accompanied on his tour by Central Europe experts in order to stress that Obama admittedly pays very little attention to this region.

It is also interesting that Romney continues to raise funds for his election campaign even abroad. In London, he and other top members of the Grand Old Party (GOP, a nickname for the US Republican Party) is going to attend a dinner the entrance fee of which is 75,000 dollars. A similar fund-raising event will also take place in Israel, but the dinner’s cost is somewhat lower there – 50,000 dollars.

The Day asked Dr. Matthew Rojansky, deputy director of the Russia and Eurasia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, and Steven Pifer, senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and a former US ambassador to Ukraine, what dividends Romney can reap by visiting London (where he will participate in the Olympic opening ceremony), Israel, and Poland.

Mathew ROJANSKY: “I think any candidate for the US presidency will reap some benefit by showing that he has foreign-policy experience, is respected by foreign leaders, and maintains friendly relations with the US’s close allies. I doubt that only one tour like this will change the campaign’s pace because most of us agree that foreign policy is just not the main issue, when the economy is still slowly recovering from a deep recession and there are signs now that it may roll back.

“The visit to Poland perhaps fits in with the efforts to play in ‘common values’ with our allies. George Bush Jr. once focused his attention on Poland as a role model of ‘Western values,’ although that country has not-so-easy relations with its neighbors. But, on the other hand, Poland is taking good advantage of the fact that many ethnic Polish voters live in the US Middle West.”

Steven PIFER: “Governor Romney’s tour of Britain, Israel, and Poland very much resembles foreign trips by other candidates in the summer before the US presidential elections. The aim of Romney’s team is to show that he is knowledgeable about foreign-policy matters on the whole. They are trying to project the image of an individual who, if elected to the White House, will be able to really manage the US foreign policy, especially taking into account that President Obama is generally rated as a strong leader in foreign-policy matters. The governor’s visit to London to take part in the Olympic Games opening ceremony was planned to remind US voters of the role the governor played in the successful organization of the 2002 winter Olympics in the state of Utah. In the course of his visit to Israel, he will be emphasizing his support for that country.”

Will this tour increase Romney’s chances to be elected president, taking into account that a similar trip of Obama to Europe in 2008 promoted his popularity?

M.R.: “In my view, this trip can also be of benefit for Romney. But it is wrong to think that Obama’s tour of Europe in 2008 was a decisive factor for his victory. In reality, he was subjected to a lot of criticism and told that a candidate should pay more attention to domestic problems. In all probability, the same will occur in the case of Romney. I doubt that foreign policy may be one of the key issues in the election campaign. There has not been a precedent like this in history. Besides, Romney has already harshly criticized Obama in foreign-policy matters. But this does not change the fact that the coverage of the campaign, advertising materials, and speeches mainly focus on the economy.”

S.P.: “Governor Romney should exercise caution during this trip. A candidate may criticize the incumbent president’s foreign policy as much as he pleases. Therefore, the US electorate is taking a dim view of the candidates who express criticism from abroad.”

Can the Bain affair and reluctance to make public the tax declaration be a serious obstacle for Romney to win these elections?

M.R.: “I think the margin between the two candidates will be slim. I doubt that Romney’s taxes, the Bain situation, and the country’s financial condition under Obama’s presidency will be a crucial issue. What will really matter is the economic situation in the fall of 2012 as well as which of the candidates is better prepared, in the opinion of voters, to improve the overall situation in the country.”

S.P.: “As for the trip’s impact on the presidential campaign in general, I cannot say I am an expert in the question of US politics, but I suspect that the campaign will focus on the domestic problems that will most strongly influence the voters’ choice. Foreign policy will be a secondary issue when the Americans go to the polls in November.”