But Russia has a chance to win over Sevastopol base for good

The Russian Black Sea Fleet will be based in Ukraine forever, its commanding officer Admiral Vladimir Komoyedov said last week. At first glance, this statement by the Russian naval commander seems only a propaganda gimmick. But in reality, such statements significantly undermine official Kyiv’s bargaining power in the Vienna international negotiations.

The crux of the matter is that the Vienna talks should, among other things, determine the conditions under which the troops of one state can be stationed on the territory of another. The resulting compromise will be inscribed in a revised Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces. Ukraine is now trying to convince 29 signatories that the Russian troops are only stationed in the Crimea on a temporary basis.

However, the problem is that some influential states, including the US, consider as temporary something that lasts weeks, months, but not years. With this approach in view, it is hard to understand the 20-year lease term of the Russian base in Ukraine. But if the revised Treaty on Conventional Forces allows treating the status of Russian arsenals in the Crimea as permanent, Moscow will have an additional effective instrument to pressure Kyiv. For in that case Russia will be able to refer to international multilateral accords as confirmation of Russia’s perpetual presence in the Crimea. Yet, Russian admirals are ready to speak about it even now, as we see.

In his turn, chief of the arms control and disarmament department at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine Oleksiy Rybak commented on the current situation in Vienna saying, “The Vienna talks continue to specify the purpose, periods, etc., of the so-called temporary deployment of troops. It is on the basis of these provisions that the presence of the Russian Black Sea Fleet units on the territory of Ukraine will be discussed. Perhaps, the situation with the Russian fleet presence in Ukraine will be considered as an exception in light of the length of its presence, with due account of the dates stipulated in the respective bilateral Ukrainian-Russian agreements. But the main thing is that Ukraine’s position on the unchangeable status of the Russian temporarily stationed armaments is supported by most signatory states.”

On the other hand, this did not prevent Ukraine from seeking true allies which could unanimously oppose the Russian option. These are, first of all, Georgia and Azerbaijan which take rather a dim view of the presence of Russian troops on their territory or near their borders. Baku and Tbilisi, together with Kyiv, have already made public a declaration on a common policy toward adapting the Treaty on Conventional Arms in Europe to the new realities. If joint efforts of the three prove insufficient, Kyiv may finally threaten to opt out, if this document does not take into account the interests of a non-aligned state. But this argument is like the last cartridge in a clip to be only used as a last resort.

Officially

The Russian Black Sea Fleet marines, stationed in the Crimea, can be equipped with 132 armored combat vehicles, 24 over ten millimeter artillery pieces, while the Fleet’s land-based naval air force may have 22 warplanes. Does this arsenal pose a threat to Ukraine’s national interests? Chief of the arms control and disarmament department at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine Oleksiy Rybak replied, “I would like to note that what influences national interests most are not so much the quantitative indicators of arms and equipment as the political course chosen by a certain state, i.e., the goals it pursues. And we do not doubt that Russia is consistently pursuing a friendly and course toward Ukraine, one aimed at partnership, nor do we doubt that the Russian Black Sea Fleet and its armaments will never be used against Ukraine whether or not this will be to the liking of some politicians or those who oppose sound good-neighborly relations between our states. Russia vividly demonstrated her course on Febr uary 17 this year by ratifying the Grand Treaty between Ukraine and Russia which recognizes Ukraine’s territorial integrity and inviolability. As to the quantitative indicators, they are on the decline. This means Russia is gradually cutting back its arsenal on the territory of Ukraine.”