Russia a step ahead of Ukraine on road to WTO
The ninth session of the World Trade Organization (WTO) Working Party on Ukraine’s Accession is slated to take place in June. Ukraine intends to approach this milestone, having signed at least ten bilateral protocols on access to markets for goods and services. Such protocols have now been signed with six countries, while Latvia, Turkey, and Ecuador have so far given oral confirmation that they have no reciprocal claims. Taking into account that EU countries are considered one big package, Ukraine has a chance to meet the deadline set for bilateral negotiations, i.e., October 2002. “We think the level we suggested will suit most countries and will not create special problems,” Lidiya Melnyk, deputy chief of the WTO entry department at the Ministry of the Economy and European Integration of Ukraine, believes.
Simultaneously, efforts are being made to bring Ukrainian law into compliance with WTO requirements: out of the twenty priority bills fifteen have already been passed into law (thirteen in 2001). Especially prominent among the remaining five are the Customs and Tax Codes. It is planned to pass the latter in the third quarter of 2002, but this does not look like a deadline. The new parliament stands a good chance of showing understanding that Ukraine exists in a highly competitive world.
There is also a third dimension in the process of Ukraine’s entry into the WTO, the way our steps correlate with the attempts of Russia to join it. Russia has not yet signed even one bilateral protocol, nor does it have anything to boast of in lawmaking. Still, many believe it has very high chances to join the WTO in the nearest future. According to Tamara Panfilova, state expert at the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine, today Russia is even ahead of Ukraine in a way. Our neighbor has lately redoubled its efforts to come closer to the WTO, which is illustrated by the frequent visits of US and European trade emissaries to Russia. Ms. Panfilova also attributes this to the fact that the US and the EU, the main WTO main players, are supporting Russia as the top new candidate for membership. The same happened with China in 1998. Meanwhile, WTO Director-General Michael Moor favors the admission of Russia as early as in the first half of 2003. Also of importance is the fact that debate recently began in Geneva on the first version of a WTO Working Party on Russia’s Accession report drawn up by 64 countries. As this is the basic document (Ukraine has not yet reached this stage), Ms. Panfilova thinks a positive discussion of it could automatically give the green light to signing bilateral protocols. This would enable Russia to win precious time.
However, despite obvious acceleration and favored-nation treatment, Russia is rather unlikely, the expert believes, to gain WTO membership before Ukraine does, for it will face a complex, cumbersome, and perhaps lengthy procedure of consultations. It is extremely important for Ukraine not to trail Russia into the world trade club, for in that case our largest trade partner will become a party to the negotiating process and may make some demands difficult to meet. The best option for all is the simultaneous entry of Ukraine and Russia into the WTO, an idea that the leaderships of both countries also favor. “In our opinion, Ukraine and Russia must make concerted efforts to join the WTO. This is an element of strategic partnership which will help us avoid repeating old mistakes,” Tatiana Beliakova, deputy trade representative of Russia in Ukraine, told The Day. Last April the prime ministers of Ukraine and Russia agreed to inform each other on their WTO accession situation. At first glance, this is a hopeful sign. Yet, if we trace the dynamics of Russia’s relations with, say, the EU or NATO, it will be quite clear that Moscow will pursue, above all, its own interests on its way to the WTO. Russia will gain from joining the WTO before Ukraine does. At any rate, the Russians are unlikely to wait for Kyiv.
