Russian Duma Ratifies Grand Treaty With Ukraine

Russian Speaker Gennady Seleznev promised President Kuchma, Speaker Tkachenko, and Foreign Minister Tarasiuk to ratify the document on at least three previous occasions. It happened only after Oleksandr Tkachenko's last visit to Moscow in mid-December when he gave his spiel at the Duma, making statements and promises that would cause raised eyebrows and red faces in Ukraine's upper echelons, including the need to form a Slavic Union made up of former USSR republics with a joint defense policy, uniform currency, and that dividing the Black Sea Navy was a stupid idea. Anyway, the treaty has been ratified, subject to the condition expressed in a separate Duma resolution that Ukraine's Verkhovna Rada guarantees Ukraine's non-accession to NATO.

The Russian Duma vote brought 244 ayes and 30 nays, meaning that the treaty was mainly seconded by the Communists. In fact, their leader Gennady Ziuganov had long declared the need to ratify it and kept his word. The most outspoken opponent was Mr. Zhirinovsky: "This treaty cannot be ratified, because it is the product of anti-Russian forces." But most his associates must have voted for ratification. Earlier the document had been opposed by Vice Speaker Sergei Baburin championing the rebirth of Great Russia.

The Russian legislators may have been influenced by Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov who said that evading its ratification and persisting with territorial claims would only serve to enhance forces in Ukraine working for NATO rapprochement, hampering Russian-Ukrainian bilateral relationships, and be regarded as breaches of international law by Russia (something the Russian lawmakers had almost completely ignored until recently).

Another possibility is that Russian Parliament has had its fill of verbiage on the subject and postponing the ratification any further would mean, among other things, a heavy blow to the Primakov Cabinet supported by the Duma. Or international diplomacy must have been at play long and effectively enough, for it is an open secret that Moscow "perceived" the necessity of signing the Grand Treaty with Ukraine after quite some pressure was brought to bear from without. Be it as it may, the crucial step has been taken.

The ratification of both the Grand Treaty and an agreement on Russia's use of antiaircraft defense installations in Mukacheve and Sevastopol does not mean, of course, that Ukrainian-Russian relationships will develop without a hitch from now on. Moscow is likely to continue its political and economic pressure, as evidenced by statements coming from certain Russian top-level executives. There are also problems of national - particularly sea - border delimitation and Ukraine-NATO rapprochement that are likely to remain a thorn in Russia's side.

After all has been said and done, ratifying the Grand Treaty is a symbolic gesture indicating that Russia has again (after first signing the document) recognized Ukraine as a sovereign state within its current frontiers.