Sergei KARAGANOV: “Russia-Ukraine relations in normal orbit period”
The Ukrainian government has a positive view of the first meeting of the Yushchenko-Putin Commission, which took place last Friday in Kyiv. President Yushchenko told a press conference that both sides have achieved a number of important shifts on several principal issues. The main one, according to Ukraine’s president, is the very fact that direct talks were resumed after a lull of almost two years.
Russian President Vladimir Putin, in turn, declared that there were “no emotional problems” during the bilateral meeting, and also described his conversation with Yushchenko as constructive, good, and friendly.
The Day spoke with Sergei KARAGANOV, head of the Russian Federation’s Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, and deputy director of the Russian Academy’s Institute of Europe.
How do you assess the results of the meeting of the Yushchenko-Putin Commission? Is this a new stage in the development of relations between our countries?
S.K.: I think we have overcome a tense phase in our relations, for the time being or forever. This tension was caused by the gas crisis and severe political struggle in Ukraine. Now we are establishing normal, constructive, even friendly relations — the kind of relations that should exist between our countries. The first session of the Yushchenko-Putin Commission was a normal protocol event setting a constructive tone as the result of a great many factors.
Can we now expect that a number of acute problems will be resolved by the end of Putin’s presidency?
S.K.: What acute problems?
For example, the delimitation of the Sea of Azov and Kerch Strait.
S.K.: These are not only Putin’s problems but also the Ukrainian government’s problems. They will be resolved if both sides show enough mutual will; if not, the problems will remain.
You say “mutual will,” but Ukraine is showing this will and desire.
S.K.: This is your assumption that Ukraine is showing this will. Terms and conditions are being put forward that are absolutely unacceptable. Our impression is that Ukraine has no such will.
Even now that Yanukovych’s influence has increased and it will be easier to make a deal with him?
S.K.: I am referring to the past, not the future. I think that there will be such a will.
During the meeting a number of topics of cooperation were broached: aeronautics, space exploration, power engineering. Can we now expect that Russia will not slow down progress in these spheres? Before, the Russian side set certain conditions for such cooperation.
S.K.: If there is natural development, there will be normal competition and a certain degree of misunderstanding on both sides. By the way, our relations have been rather friendly and constructive over the past 15 years, despite constantly generated fears, despite attempts of certain third parties to build up the minimal divergences between Russia and Ukraine. Our relations have been normal in principle; they only worsened a bit last year. Now I think they have entered a normal course on a normal trajectory.
What was the main factor in setting these relations on a normal trajectory — Yanukovych’s statement that Ukraine will not speed up the process of joining NATO? Anything else?
S.K.: First, I would like to point out that a number of factors played a role. Let me start by saying that we did agree on gas supplies, if only in general terms — and I mean reasonable market terms. This year the Ukrainian leadership did not try to duck negotiations like it did last year. Finally, I think that the Ukrainian leadership has discarded certain illusions about how quickly they can move in the direction of the West and that the West will be there to help. It has become more apparent that the proposal made to Ukraine to move in the NATO direction at a quicker pace is unrealistic — not because Yanukovych made a statement to this effect, but because this would result in a massive crisis within the Ukrainian ruling class. Europe is also beginning to realize that the result would be a large-scale crisis and that it would not answer its interests; it would be a tragedy for Ukraine and a drama for Europe. Yanukovych simply stated the obvious fact that it is not necessary to rush. The Ukrainian elite probably realizes the consequences.
You mentioned market gas prices. Isn’t Russia selling gas to other countries at considerably higher prices?
S.K.: I think that this price is closer to the market one. Of course, there will be perpetual controversies. We will want to sell higher and Ukraine will want to buy cheaper. This is normal, but what happened earlier, that price was outrageously corrupt. I was shocked not so much by our tightening the screws, doing it rather clumsily, as by the fact that we had kept that price for 10 years. This means that certain quarters in both countries were making quick and illicit Russian and Ukrainian money.
