Seventeen Percent

...The current governor of Belgorod oblast, Russia, Yevgeny Savchenko has won the gubernatorial elections in that region. People's Deputy Vladimir Zhirinovsky, considered the governor's main rival, only came in third, also with about 17%.

I am far from wishing to compare the respected president of a legendary soccer club with one of Russia's most odious politicians. God forbid! For we are all patriots and wish our Dynamo every success!

I only want to compare the election technologies that led to such unexpectedly similar results.

Two national-level politicians decided to become regional administrators in regions where the people were not delighted with the local authorities. They behaved like true saviors, as people who decided to grace the population of their chosen regions by presenting themselves, as they put it in Belgorod, as "big personalities." They do not much talk about themselves, for this was already common knowledge. Ukrainian television showed clips portraying Mr. Omelchenko as Sharikov (a satirical character from Bulgakov - Ed.). Mr. Zhirinovsky claimed that Mr. Savchenko should be put in imprison. Simultaneously, the populace was invited to free gala concerts: the life of the electorate becomes a true show of the play In the Steppes of Ukraine (and next to it). "Look who's dancing! Hryhory Surkis!"

Mr. Zhirinovsky not only dances, he also sings: he had issued a CD with Alla Pugachova's best songs in his own rendition in time for the election campaign. A good idea for the next election campaign, isn't it? One can also play the guitar.

The party structures led by the respected mayoral candidate in Kyiv and the odious Russian politician apparently contest the role of "the party of power" or at least an important part of it. The SDPU(o) does not conceal its wish to be "more like the NDP than the NDP itself." Zhirinovsky's LDPR votes for all the Kremlin's proposals with greater enthusiasm than Chernomyrdin's Our Home is Russia, which was specially created to do so. Small wonder, for the SDPU(o) was created by business people turned politicians. The LDPR leader has turned politics into business.

What is left is the finale, a triumphant victory, fanfares! What we need is a mayor of Kyiv not of Khreshchatyk! Throw Savchenko into the slammer!

17%. Both contenders, the respected president of a soccer club, three times Man of the Year, and the odious Russian populist were convinced this could not have happened.

Abuse!

But it turned out that it could happen. This phenomenon is known as protest voting. Mr. Omelchenko might well have won this election without Mr. Surkis, but with a different result. For most Kyivans would have voted for somebody else or may even have gone out of town to relax. But in this case, they voted against not, of course, the respected president of the favorite soccer club, but against those television clips, concerts, and the assurance of some of the respected contender's image-makers that Kyiv is populated by, pardon the expression, trash.

In addition, many voters understood which of the candidates had won the heart of this country's most popular man of the year. And they showed it.

As to Mr. Savchenko, he had bad luck. Had there been no Mr. Zhirinovsky, he would have easily won the second round (the latter is a must in Belgorod elections). There would have been no split among the region's Communists, for his rival, member of the Auditing Chamber Mikhail Beskhmelnitsyn, would have been supported on the spot by none other than Gennady Ziuganov, and not a certain Makashov. And no one knows how all this would have ended. But in practice, Belgorod dwellers did not accept Mr. Zhirinovsky's view that they are, pardon the expression, trash.

Moreover, many voters understood that some well-wisher in the Kremlin wanted to throw Mr. Zhirinovsky a bone so that he voted correctly further on. But the electorate chose not to be a bone.

Well, the respected president and the odious politician have already lost. But these were not the last elections. There already is a well-tested scenario of how to win 17% and greet one's rival without waiting for the runoff.

Does anybody want to use it?