Small steps to the EU
Step by step, Ukraine is gradually drawing closer to the European Union. The latest step was the 10th Ukraine-EU Summit in Helsinki, which ended on Oct. 27, 2006, with the initialing of two agreements: on readmission and relaxed visa requirements. The documents were signed by Ukraine’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Borys Tarasiuk and Benita Ferrero-Waldner, EU Commissioner for External Relations and European Neighborhood Policy.
Addressing a press conference, President Viktor Yushchenko used the phrase “not a bad set,” referring to the extensive list of categories of individuals eligible for a free visa. He also announced that the agreement permits multiple and long-term visas (up to five years) and sets a fixed fee of 35 euros for a visa.
As reported earlier, the implementation of the readmission agreement has been deferred for two years. In view of the ratification of this document, the deferment can last up to three years. Russia received the same deferment when it signed a similar agreement with the EU. Kyiv and Brussels had agreed earlier that readmission conditions would only concern those individuals who obviously crossed through the territory of Ukraine. The EU has also officially pledged to provide financial aid to create temporary housing for such individuals and, possibly, to send them back to the countries from which they arrived in the EU.
Brussels considers the initialed agreements as the EU’s step towards Ukraine. “These treaties confirm that we want to bring Ukraine closer to the European Union, and we welcome Ukraine’s wish to get closer to EU membership. We are aware of Ukraine’s aspiration to this,” said European Commission President Jose Barroso at a press conference in Helsinki after the conclusion of the Ukraine-EU Summit.
At the same time, Barroso explained very clearly why Ukraine’s membership is not on the EU’s agenda. “There are two answers to this question: Ukraine is not prepared, and we are not prepared. Ukraine still has to carry out reforms, and the EU member states are not prepared today to take on responsibility for one more member,” Interfax quotes the European Commission president as saying. In his view, this answer is not a negative signal. “On the contrary, we want to encourage Ukraine to continue economic and political reforms,” Barroso emphasized.
So far, in the short term the agenda of EU-Ukraine relations envisions negotiations on reaching an agreement on an extensive free trade area. The Ukrainian and EU delegations have decided to commence these negotiations in early 2007. Will Ukraine be able to take the next step?
COMMENTARIES
Valerii CHALY, director of international programs at the Razumkov Center:
“Naturally, if Ukraine were a WTO member today, this may have given us greater prospects as far as the free-trade area talks are concerned. But these kinds of negotiations on a free trade area, a new in-depth agreement between Ukraine and the EU and specific investment projects need not be linked to any summits.
We should always do active and assertive work with the EU on the basis of protecting our national interests as well as with due account of our partners’ interests and the achievement of our goal — future integration into the EU.
“Of course, lack of coordination between the cabinet, the president, and parliament affects not only relations with the EU but also relations in other directions of foreign policy. The problem is that there is no political consensus in Ukrainian society about foreign policy strategy and the mechanisms of its formation. Still, as far as European integration is concerned, there are no serious problems or radically different visions today on the part of different branches of power. Moreover, in the nearest future this will be the direction that can unite all the branches of government and politicians.
“The only major problem is that today European integration has more to do with internal transformations in the state itself. This means, first of all, judicial reform, a change in the investment climate, the struggle against corruption, and WTO membership. All these problems raise many questions about the effectiveness of actions in these fields. As for admission to the WTO, this question has become a test case for the current government as to how its real actions correspond to its declarations. And, naturally, everything will depend on the successful approval by Ukraine’s parliament of a packet of laws necessary for entering this organization.
“In my opinion, the submission of various WTO bills by the president and the prime minister will not be conducive to this kind of active and fast work. Forecasts for February look too optimistic even today. When the bills go through parliament, we will see the government’s real attitude. For cabinet ministers rely on the political will of their coalition and, accordingly, the coalition’s actions should be in accord with the cabinet’s proposals. Otherwise the system does not work. We must see speedy action from the coalition in parliament. If this does not happen, there will be many additional questions about the effectiveness of a new political system in Ukraine.”
Michael EMERSON, analyst, Brussels Center for European Political Research:
“I do not know if we could call the current EU-Ukraine summit successful. Brussels is very concerned about the conflict between Ukraine’s President Viktor Yushchenko and Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych. The EU is worried over whether the Ukrainian prime minister will ensure Ukraine’s early accession to the WTO or will respond to the request of Russia’s Prime Minister Mikhail Fradkov to synchronize Ukraine’s entry into the WTO with Russia’s. Earlier, Yanukovych said he would not hurry to join the WTO. He said that he would not be pushing the necessary bills through parliament so that nobody will be upset about Ukraine joining the WTO. So, Ukraine’s ability to join the WTO is now under question, as is the beginning of negotiations on a free EU Ukraine trade area.
“Another problem is that we are not sure that President Yushchenko will manage to get the necessary bills voted in by parliament. In my opinion, Ukrainian business is interested in free trade between the EU and Ukraine. But government-level politics are less clear to us. Ukraine’s WTO membership will be a sure sign for Brussels. The negotiations on a new expanded agreement will continue, but they will not produce a positive result until Ukraine joins the WTO. This will be a kind of test of Ukraine’s ability to follow through with its declared course towards integration into European institutions.”
Arkadii MOSHES, expert, Finnish Institute of International Relations:
“I think that with due account of the domestic political situation in Ukraine, it was quite a successful event. It is without a doubt definite but modest proof of some progress. But you must remember that from Ukraine’s viewpoint the quality of these documents, especially the one on readmission, could be better. This agreement should be treated as a cautious success. “Nevertheless, I fear that after approving these documents, Ukraine will do its best to implement the readmission agreement simultaneously with the Russian one. Procrastinating with this agreement may hurt the interests of the people who could derive some advantages from a liberalized visa treatment.
“But if Ukraine really chooses to procrastinate, this will not be accepted well in Europe, which may lead to a serious political problem. Important as it is, this is a partial agreement because it does not result in a visa-free treatment of Ukrainians. Therefore, one should not overestimate the importance of this agreement. Besides, it will have only an indirect impact on the preparation of a new framework document on an in-depth or expanded partnership. In the next few years domestic political developments in Ukraine will play the main role in shaping Ukraine-EU relations.
“The same applies to Ukraine’s ability to speak with its own voice in the international political arena. Ukraine should follow one, not one and a half, foreign political course. Moreover, this should be a strategic course towards Europe. Ukraine will find it difficult because it will have to meet higher than usual requirements. Today’s EU approach is that Ukraine should be given the maximum of what the European Neighborhood Policy can allow. As you know, this policy does not envision discussing the membership question but allows all the rest. So this vision can give a lot to Ukraine. Kyiv should be able to make use of this, confirm its strategic course, and gradually move on.
“But these reforms begin at home, and nothing can be done about this. I think it is quite possible to form a single foreign political course in Ukraine. There are sufficient numbers of people in the Ukrainian foreign-policy field who have no exaggerated expectations. They are capable of coming to terms about the priorities of concrete work. Even the eastern clans and economic groups are interested in as fast as possible and problem-free access to European sales and stock markets. They have no other option but to accept the European rules of the game, which are quite difficult rules at that. “Otherwise, Brussels can always say that the supplied products do not meet certain standards and therefore cannot be freely imported by the EU. Ukraine will find it profitable to enter European markets, and it will have to accept European rules. In this case, the EU will objectively have fewer pretexts to lodge complaints against Ukraine.
“Is the EU prepared for sectoral cooperation with Ukraine? It is too early to discuss this. In principle, I see no reasons why there should be any veto on this form of cooperation. But I think that Brussels will want to record this new structure of relations as firmly as possible in the new framework agreement. The new agreement should enshrine the mechanisms of conflict resolution, juridical and arbitration sanctions.”
