TO STAGE A REVOLUTION FROM ABOVE, BUT —

The presidential campaign is over and of all the different views and analyses one thing is certain: the Right-centrist parties suffered a fiasco. The turnout of the two Rukh contenders (Yuri Kostenko: 2.17%; Hennady Udovenko: 1.22%) allow one to describe their failure as a shattering defeat. Below the reasons for this fiasco and prospects of setting up a Right opposition in Ukraine are discussed with Oleksandr LAVRYNOVYCH, a noted Ukrainian politician and a founder of Rukh.

The Day : Mr. Lavrynovych, knowing your active stand one would could assume that you consciously kept aloof from the campaign hoopla. Why?

O.L.: Because I took a sober look at what was going on and realized the campaign was geared to end in the coronation of the legal opposition as embodied by the Communists while preserving the current head of the state. All the rest was a race in which some participated to secure either of the parties, others acted on their own, never even expecting to get the champion’s title, and all the rest were extras. And I think that the latter looked very funny, grossly overstating their chances and their personal importance. Everything was programmed in that campaign. The only unscheduled event, giving one hope, was the appearance of the Kaniv Four. Hopes for a possibility of coordinating political stands in Ukraine, regardless of personal plans and ambitions, determining a common interest as the most important value. Regrettably, those hopes turned out short- lived and it was another proof that no miracles would be worked in this country; still there was no one in Ukraine prepared to place public good above corporate or individual interests.

In fact, everything was so predictable that there was no sense getting involved, for it would be just another way to confirm the lawless status of Ukrainian society. For the past three years this regime has functioned basically using backstage arrangements and decision-making, expressly ignoring the written and unwritten rules of the game. Those in power have encouraged only one, Communist, opposition which is a priori unacceptable to most in this society.

In this manner they left no room for a competition among politicians, political forces, and ideas for the most effective methods of development and working out such methods. Now everything depends on the will of a single individual, the President. In other words, whether the Chief Executive will find it in himself to suppress his desire to reform the mechanism of power, decision- making, with the least personal discomfort. By the way, Leonid Kuchma did it once, after his abortive premiership, when he set to work as President in an altogether different manner (although two years later he returned to the old modus operandi).

The Day: Would your please enlarge?

O.L.: What I mean is, I do not rule out the possibility that the mechanism of individual, or corporate, influence on making a certain decision, later to be implemented in the form of an executive order, or individual decisions concerning appointments, will be replaced by organs and political parties exerting such influence on the decision-making process, as determined by the Constitution. And that these organs and parties must become the principal subject of political life, turning into a public tool, something without which no true democracy can exist. The absence of political control when reforming power, absence of control over that power, make all declarations about the democratic nature of the current regime fictitious.

The Day: Why should the President change his modus operandi now that his campaign staff won, showing for all to see that their tactic was powerful and effective?

O.L.: First, because in his second term Leonid Kuchma may raise his standard, to go down in history as a man who fulfilled the most important task of the period, laying the foundations of the country’s future. Such actions may be highly praised by the coming generations of Ukrainians. But that’s looking from a very broad angle.

The Day: Mr. Kuchma broached the subject during the campaign. He declared that he would be a totally different President, and that he wanted to leave in the end with his head held high. Perhaps a lot of people voting for him made a kind of advance payment, hoping for precisely such changes. Another thing is whether we have grounds to expect such changes or it will be waiting for another miracle, guessing whether Mr. Kuchma will be in the mood or not.

O.L.: Without doubt, this will be mostly waiting for a miracle. There is, however, another more realistic sphere. It has nothing to do with the coming generations, but with the current one, and it has a lot to do with Leonid Kuchma and his entourage. Retaining the style of work we have witnessed for the past several years may produce an extremely negative effect not only on the social process, but also on the general outcome, nationwide, so that after his offices ends he will be presented a bill to pay. And there is strong likelihood that he will have to pay it before a lumpenized part of the protesting electorate that will be acting on the verge or on the other side of the law. If one combines the first “history-making” and the second, quite realistic, scenario, one will see that Kuchma-2 has reasons to stage a revolution upstairs. Chances? I still hope there are, but quite frankly I do not rate them too high.

The Day: Who would Mr. Kuchma rely upon in staging this revolution?

O.L.: I would look at this at a different angle. If and when he makes up his mind he will have to start by laying the foundations, and he should do it now. Because after over five years of his presidency there are no organized political forces left except in the Left wing.

The Day: Could this be the result of an historical coincidence?

O.L.: There could have been no coincidence.

The Day: Would you say that the current alignment of political forces should be blamed on the Right-centrist democratic parties, particularly Rukh as the most conspicuous political force?

O.L.: I am one of those regarding the notions of joint and several rightness and guilt quite skeptically.

The Day: How about the political responsibility of a political organization? All those objecting to the political line adopted by the majority should call it quits, speaking in principle. The two factions of Rukh collected a total of 3.39% of the votes. There must be reasons that can and should be analyzed.

O.L.: Yes, there are reasons and it is possible to identify those to be held answerable. I will not make any digressions in history, concerning either of the Rukh factions, or remind who and where predicted precisely this outcome and proposed an altogether different road to take. Yet the majority passed the resolution it did and there names in the ballots, so it is easy to understand who is to blame for the situation that has developed. In fact, the presidential campaign passed without any Right opposition, because the Right parties were in a condition that only pipe dreamers could count on a different outcome. Theirs was presence, but not action. And this happened thanks to the efforts of the regime and many being on the Right extreme side.

The Day: And the prospects? We see that attempts are being made to analyze the situation and clear the construction site, to start from scratch. How real is the possibility of creating a Right Center party?

O.L.: I would say that there is a real need for such a party, a social contract for its creation.

The Day: Would you explain?

O.L.: There is a crowned legal Red opposition. And there is the regime that has to make its choice. If it remains colorless, working using old patterns, a Right opposition is sure to emerge. One hundred percent. How strong and influential it will get will depend on many factors, primarily the sense of self-preservation and self-defense on the part of those believing that that we can live in this country and have free enterprise and freedom of speech. If, miraculously, the regime determines its color, it will be a factor encouraging the creation of a strong Right-centrist center as its very foundation.