Off to a start

The Valdai Discussion Club is an annual meeting of the world’s top Russia experts hosted by Russia’s Prime Minister Vladimir Putin. This year it was held in Sochi. Ninety political scientists, journalists, and historians from 16 countries came to see the Russian premier.

Experts handed the report “Russia Development Index 2009-2010” over to their host. It focuses on an ongoing tendency towards stagnation and an ever-worsening situation in the development of the political system, which may lead to the much-feared instability. Oil and gas remain the main sources of income, corruption is still rampant, technological breakthroughs are not being put into practice, and the infrastructure and industry are being upgraded very slowly. All these factors have a negative effect on the country’s overall development.

On his part, Mr. Putin took a diametrically opposed view of the situation. Asked by John Peet, Europe Editor at the influential English-language weekly The Economist, about the pace of modernization, the premier said it was satisfactory on the whole.

He noted that one of the key indicators of a country’s development is its public mood, “which is directly reflected in demographics.” “The birth rate is on the rise, mortality is falling. Despite the crisis, the horizons of planning are broadening and people feel greater stability,” Mr. Putin said. In the premier’s view, Russia needs stable development conditions, which would ensure a progressive course. “Everybody would like this movement to be more powerful and effective. But our objective is not to create effects but to secure stable conditions for the country’s development, which would ensure this progressive course without any jumps. We do not need any jumps — up, down, right or left. We have had our share of jumping in all directions some 20 years ago,” he said.

As usual, Putin appropriated successes which he and his government had absolutely nothing to do with. The rise in the birth rate was caused not by the government’s economic policies but by the demographic bulge of the late 1980s. The girls, who constituted the majority of newborns at the time, have now entered an active reproductive age — hence the increased birth rate. But still the latter cannot compensate the natural slump of the population. So Russia’s demography does not give cause for the premier’s optimism.

Naturally, GUests were interested in the next presidential elections. By tradition, this question is raised by the US-based political scientist Nikolai Zlobin. This time he failed to visit the meeting due to illness. So it was Samuel Charap, expert at the Washington-based Center for American Progress, who tried to probe the president’s and premier’s intentions regarding the 2012 elections. He quoted Mr. Putin as saying last year that Dmitry Medvedev and he will decide which of them will be running for the presidency. “Suppose you win the majority of votes in the elections. Do you think this change will harm the development of Russia’s political system?” Charap inquired.

It was not so difficult to foresee a question like this, so Mr. Putin had prepared for it brilliantly. First, he reminded the expert, as if he were a pupil who had not learned his lessons, about the case of Franklin Roosevelt: “US President Roosevelt was once elected four times in a row. In a row! This did not run counter to the US Constitution. Neither I nor President Medvedev will do anything that contravenes the current Russian legislation and the country’s Constitution.”

The lecture went on: “The Russian Federation’s Constitution was adopted democratically, and I do not think that any actions within the framework of this process or Constitutional Law can, by definition, hinder democratic development in this country. We will act, taking into consideration the situation in the country, what we have done, and public opinion. It is too early to discuss this. One must do one’s own business — each of us is doing his own business. In my view, we are working effectively on the whole, which is very important.”

By all accounts, the tandem has not yet had a decisive talk on this important subject, or its results are being closely guarded. The former is more probable because, as a saying goes, murder will out. Besides, the examples of other countries are not always good to cite. The head of the Foundation for Effective Politics Gleb Pavlovsky believes that reference to Roosevelt “has nothing to do with the 2012 elections.” He gave an example from Soviet history, when the CPSU CC secretary-general was not limited in the number of reelections: “And all this was done in accordance with the Constitution.” Aleksey Malashenko, member of the Moscow Carnegie Center’s academic council, sees the following subtext in Putin’s words: “We have a political system of our own, and you will deal with it. So go and put it across to your bosses.” But the expert notes that the premier does not recall the reasons why Roosevelt was elected president four times: “It is very significant that he was elected because there was a crisis in the country and then a war… Referring to Great Depression reveals the government’s inner readiness for a similar situation in Russia. There is no need for a Roosevelt-style four terms when there is normal development.” Normal development is exactly what Russia lacks — this is why it is planning all kinds of long- and short-term reshuffles. Incidentally, Roosevelt was long hesitating whether to run for a third time, for he was fully aware that this step was somewhat undemocratic. Only the imminent war forced him to do so. As for the fourth time, in 1944, he just could not help taking this step.

Although Russian experts are not inclined to regard this meeting with the premier as the start of the election campaign, there are some obvious indications to this effect. Firstly, Mr. Putin was the only one to meet Valdai club members. In previous years Mr. Medvedev had also attended. Things like that never happen accidentally. That fact the president was inspecting food stores and flour mills in Voronezh at the time fits the picture. Meanwhile, the premier has been touring the Trans-Baikal region in a nationally-made car, conducting a host of meetings, and giving an unheard-of number of interviews. Obviously, this “informational foray” has its purpose.

Accordingly, the president does not want to leave this unanswered and remain in the premier’s informational shadow. But the proposals to rename militia as police and introduce a clause on the State Council to the Constitution are insufficient, all the more so that most Russians have no idea what this body does. People angered by a steep rise of basic foodstuff prices need something more substantial. Addressing a State Council session in Saratov, Medvedev promised to “make it hot” for both the government and the regions as far as the food situation is concerned. To save themselves from the “heat,” local bosses resorted to such a well-known and time-tested means as eyewash. No sooner had the president approached a shopping center than the bread price fell steeply. The president remained satisfied with the prices he saw. Once he left the spot, the price tags were immediately replaced with ones that showed the real figures.

One could also see differences between the president and the premier in how to control price hikes. The latter believes there should be a large-scale delivery of grain and cereals from the state reserves; Medvedev is more cautious and advocates waiting until the beginning of next year. There is more to this insignificant, at first glance, difference of views than meets the eye. The premier and the president are taking radically different approaches. Releasing goods from state reserves can limit the price hike to some extent, but what if the following year does not replenish them? And, in general, prices are the cabinet’s headache — the president is only charged with supervising them. So Medvedev would rather not try to bring down prices too much in the long term. This will make it easier to hold a meaningful debate at a meeting which Russia’s governmental and other circles already consider imminent.