Stop the crisis, start the spin!

Viktor Yanukovych kept his promise: as soon as the 100 days he had given to Yulia Tymoshenko for riding out the crisis were over, he took people out on the streets in a protest action. Luckily, the weather was balmy – a springtime sun was shining at last. But still the idea of a mass-scale protest clearly flopped: there were not more than 4,000 people instead of the projected 15,000.

People carrying banners with their party’s symbols began to gather on the Maidan (Independence Square in Kyiv) at about 11 a.m. Most of them were more or less elderly, although small coveys of the young ones were also “hanging out.” Serhii from Kyiv began to persuade The Day’s correspondent that he was standing exclusively by the call of his heart, not for money.

“What are your demands, what do you want?”

The boy hesitated for a moment:

“To overcome the economic crisis.”

“Do you think Yanukovych will be able to overcome it?”

“No, I don’t think so,” he said and grinned embarrassingly.

But there were also some “committed” party members on the Maidan. Viktor from Bila Tserkva said that nobody had forced him to go to the rally. He volunteered for this. There were as many as eight minibus-loads of such volunteers from Bila Tserkva.

“Do you think this action will produce some concrete results?”

“It surely will.”

“And Tymoshenko will get scared and hand in her resignation?”

“And how long can we tolerate Yulia’s tricks? Is she going to stay behind for another two years?!”

Meanwhile, a big plasma screen was showing a film on Yanukovych. He showed up in the flesh at about one p.m. and in fact repeated the same message that his Bila Tserkva namesake had done:

“We have made a decision: this government must resign ahead of time – both the Cabinet and the president. And we should do our utmost to force them to do so. We cannot possibly stand this for another year and see them brutalizing this country. We know they will break Ukraine to smithereens in a year’s time.”

After the leader’s emotional speech, the Maidan became empty very quickly. Utility service workers immediately began to clear the garbage, such as beer bottles and sunflower seeds’ scales. There was very much work to do. So the “springtime offensive” proved to be very brief, not at all horrible, and very dirty.

Naturally, nobody will offer their resignation or call early elections after such an action. Rather, it is an informational attack, another bugaboo, a sound effect. A mobilization of the electorate of sorts. Quite a different thing is to destabilize the situation in parliament. This is a far more effective method. Borys Kolesnykov said last Wednesday that the Party of Regions was ready to obstruct parliament until the Cabinet resigns. But, in all probability, this will not help the “regionals” either.

Firstly, the law prohibits holding a parliamentary election six months before the presidential elections. There is a very limited time left for organizing the campaign (which is to be held before July 17).

In fact, everything should be sorted out in this month. Otherwise, the bus has gone. Secondly, as the events of 2008 showed, it is impossible to hold an election without the BYuT’s consent. The president may well dissolve the Verkhoivna Rada a million times, but he cannot provide funds for the election campaign, for this is the Cabinet’s preserve. But, naturally, under no circumstances will Tymoshenko allow the elections to be held.

Incidentally, the Party of Regions itself is not unanimous about the necessity of holding such protest actions and early elections. While Yanukovych was speaking at rallies, his deputy Andrii Kliuiev publicly suggested negotiating changes to the Constitution with the BYuT. In the deputy’s view, it is quite possible to introduce changes to the Fundamental Law before the presidential elections.

One more important thing. The Party of Regions never managed to offer an anti-crisis program of its own, although it has been the talk of the town for more than three months. It is very likely that the government would heed the opposition if it came up with concrete and constructive proposals. Then, maybe, there would have been no need to take “crisis fighters” onto the streets.

We asked The Day’s regional experts to assess the prospects of holding an early parliamentary election.

Taras BATENKO, political scientist, advisor to the mayor of Lviv:

“What the Party of Regions is doing now is an attempt to repeat Maidan-2004, if only in a different way. That was a middle-class Maidan at the time. There were no hungry people standing there. That was a Maidan which even apolitical Kyivites joined – they would bring over tea, coffee, sandwiches, etc. As for Maidan-2009, it will undoubtedly be well funded by the Party of Regions and aimed at the presidential and parliamentary elections. What aggravates the problem is the economic crisis. This is why this Maidan may be of a radicalized nature and have the signs of a hungry riot. This kind of Maidan is dangerous and uncontrollable, while Maidan-2004 was well controlled, integrative, warm, and comfortable. So I, frankly speaking, I am very fearful of what this well-financed Maidan-2009 may result in: it may draw in the hungry regions and the disillusioned families of the unemployed whose number is always on the rise. The Maidan practice, which Ukraine has introduced, is important for democracy but it can destroy this very democracy and nullify the gains of the first Maidan and the Orange Revolution, although that revolution’s gains is a very moot point. I think that even if the early parliamentary elections are held, this will occur simultaneously with or after the scheduled presidential elections. The same applies to local government elections. I do not think that the Party of Regions will manage to implement the scenario of early presidential and parliamentary elections in the autumn because, firstly, there is very little time left and, secondly, the only goal here is to hold on to the voter and convince him that ‘changes are possible even tomorrow, but in this case you should remember that the Party of Regions is the standard-bearer of these crucial changes’.”

Yevhen ISHCHENKO, head of the New Strategy center, Odesa:

“One must reflect on whether the key political players find it really necessary to hold the early parliamentary elections. For example, the rating of the ex-parliamentary speaker Arsenii Yatseniuk is now growing, and it will not be a problem for him to formalize his political force by registering it on the basis of the documents of an already existing political party. Taking into account that Yatsekiuk may attract a considerable portion of the Orange electorate, Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko is not in the least interested in such elections. As for the Party of Regions’ statement that early parliamentary elections should be held, the latest opinion polls show that this party will not be able to win more parliamentary seats in these elections than it has now. And the PR is obviously aware of this. Besides, the aggravation of internal differences has shown that this party is organizationally unprepared for active well-coordinated actions in the nearest future. “So all the talk about the possibility of an early parliamentary election is bluff and a publicity ploy: look, we are prepared for the parliamentary elections because we are sure of winning them. The truth is that the Party of Regions needs to remind its voters that it still exists. Rather, this reveals a crisis of ideas in this party.”