Sunk billions

Dealing with space is tricky. No one is secured from failures in launching satellites. Russian, American, and French rockets have all exploded and fell into the ocean. Technical defects, environmental conditions, and the infamous human factor all present risks. Thus, one can understand the disappointment of President Dmitry Medvedev, (though some Russian newspapers use the word anger): recently in his annual speech to the Federal Assembly he stated: “By the end of the year the satellite group GLONASS will be completely formed. In the next two years the creation of the main digital navigation maps will be finished, and satellite navigators will start being used.” It is now obvious that nothing of the kind will happen in the near future.

There are a few versions explaining why the tragedy happened. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Sergei Ivanov declared that so far it’s too early to speak about the reasons for the failure. However, as Interfax reports, he said that “if the rocket couldn’t put the satellites into orbit, the problem obviously lies with the upper-stage rocket. Spacecrafts have nothing to do with it.” He was referring to the rocket developed and produced by the Korolev Rocket and Space Corporation “Energia.” It should be noted that this was already the third launch of three satellites from the GLONASS-M series. In addition, the Proton rocket, used to launch the satellites, is the most reliable one in the history of space exploration. There were only seven failures over the last 17 years.

There were also problems with the modeling. The rocket took a higher orbit than it was supposed to. The Pilyugin Automation and Instrumentation Scientific Production Center is responsible for controlling the carrier rocket and upper-stage rocket. Its representative stated that the control system and the mathematical model had worked as expected, and the reasons for the unsuccessful launch most likely lied in some external factors, like “fuel of bad quality or wrong output data on the weight of the main part of the rocket.”

Then the third version appeared—the failure was caused by exceeding the effective orbital load (which includes the upper-stage rocket and satellites). Some experts say that the upper-stage rocket was fueled with one ton of fuel more than required, and therefore the carrier rocket could not bring the load to the necessary speed. As the newspaper Kommersant writes, referring to a high-ranking source in the field, this version is suspiciously convenient as it does away with any blame. According to the technology, at first the rocket is fueled completely, then a part of the fuel is discharged, if necessary. But one can check the discharged remnant only with the fuel, kerosene, and the oxidant (that is oxygen), is simply dumped in the air, and any overload can be written off to it.

Directors of Roskosmos shout from the housetops that nothing particularly dangerous and horrible happened. The head of Roskosmos Anatoly Perminov said that two reserve satellites would work in active mode. The navigation satellite of the new generation GLONASS-K, officials say, will be launched from the Plesetsk Cosmodrome on December 28, despite the fact that it has not passed state testing yet.

Despite the optimism of space and navigation authorities, many experts say that the federal special-purpose program GLONASS, in which 140 billion roubles were already invested, was actually frustrated. It is easy to say that the reserve satellites will cover. But they became reserves not because of their quality, but because they exhausted their usefulness. And no one can say how they will function in orbit now. From common knowledge, it is clear that new costs and a year’s time are necessary to compensate for what happened, such is the cycle of spacecraft production. In addition, there are big problems with the equipment of GLONASS. The Samara-based company AGISLTD announced the certification of the “modem for defining coordinates with the certificate of compliance for the navigation receiver GLONASS/GPS.” However, according to experts from the Association GLONASS/GNSS-Forum, inside the body of the modem the receiver CN-4706 “is actually not installed on the board, since it is attached to it by means of a double-sided scotch and foam rubber pads.” How can one talk about the reliable work of satellite equipment in this case?

GLONASS was estimated to constitute 15 percent of the world market of navigation services. At present the European Galileo and the Chinese Compass will hurry to take the place of the Russian system.

To all appearances, President Medvedev suspects that the problems of the rocket and the entire GLONASS system are not of technical character. It can be understood from the fact that the head of the state entrusted prosecutor general Yury Chaika and the head of the control department of the presidential administration Konstantin Chuichenko, not only to find those responsible for the loss of the three satellites in the Pacific ocean, but also to revise the entire GLONASS program. This has never happened before. Russian rockets fell in the past, in particular, with foreign satellites, but the prosecution was not involved in these accidents.

The suspicious fuss around the insurer of the launch is an implicit confirmation of the president’s suspicions regarding the misuse of immense funds. The little known company Insurance Center Sputnik won the competition for insuring the satellites. According to the Federal Insurance Supervision Service, based on the nine months of this year it took the 176th place in terms of commissions. It is not quite clear if it will be able to find several dozen million dollars to compensate for the losses of the insured event.

So far Chaika promised to examine quickly and act strictly. But many experts doubt that those responsible will be found. Even if the president is vexed, as they say.

They no longer mention that early this year Ukraine wanted to join the production of elements of the GLONASS system. Already at that time they said we shouldn’t do it. Even not for technical reasons, though they are also important, but because the president of Russia suspects big corruption there. That is one thing that Ukraine does not have to go look for abroad.