Tajikistan’s government tries to stop guerilla warfare

On July 25, President Emomali Rahmon of Tajikistan ordered a complete ceasefire in Khorog after five days of pitched battles between government and guerilla units. This guerilla warfare began after the stabbing last Saturday of Abdullo Nazarov, head of the Gorno-Badakhshan autonomous regional security network. The investigating officers suspect that Tolib Ayombekov, Nazarov’s subordinate, commander of the Ishkashim border guard unit (also one of the unofficial leaders of the Gorno-Badakhshan region in the east of Tajikistan, one of the poorest areas but with lots of firearms left since the last civil war) is directly involved in the assassination. Ayombekov and his men previously formed an armed opposition to the regime, but after talks joined the ranks of the government forces. Ayombekov is also accused of forming an anti-government guerilla unit, smuggling of tobacco products, narcotic drugs, and jewelry. The man is hiding somewhere in Afghanistan.

Official statistics point to 42 casualties as a result of a special operation in Khorog, including 30 guerillas and 12 government troops. Forty guerillas were captured, among them eight Afghanis. BBC says there were considerably more civilian victims, over 100.

Below The Day’s independent expert Rashid Ghani ABDULLO offers his commentary.

“This was a confrontation between two logics; one of the state which is trying to secure the sovereignty of the whole territory, and that of certain commanding officers who reject this logic. In fact, arrangements had been made by both sides to maintain balance. After these commanding officers and their men became members of state structures, they decided to upset this balance.

“In the end the government’s desire to restore its sovereignty over the republic’s territory reached the Gorno-Badakhshan autonomous region that was under guerilla control.”

The matter was settled quickly. Why?

“Two ranking secret police officers found their views on the situation to be polarized. The refusal to hand over [to the government] the men involved in the murder of the head of a regional KGB department can be qualified in a number of ways, including insubordination, even mutiny of sorts. What I mean is, the further from the center, the harder it is to stop guerilla warfare, considering that it flourishes where inner civil conflicts are underway. That’s sequential process in Tajikistan, except when events take a ‘special’ course, so much so the government regards this as a challenge. Then the government responds the way any government would under the circumstances, to save its face. In fact, talks were arranged before the start of special operations in Tajikistan. The conflict emerged after the talks had reached a complete deadlock. Similar events were taking place in all regions of Tajikistan, even though varying in time.

“One can hear various stories about what happened to the general in Tajikistan. The main point is that the superior officer [Nazarov. — Author] headed a state structure. His subordinate [Ayombekov. — Author] had to act as ordered by his superior. Whatever happened between the two of them is anyone’s guess. One thing is certain that a situation emerged that ran contrary to Regulations. Actually, the very existence of power structures and the legitimacy of the state were challenged. Under the circumstances, those ‘upstairs’ will do their utmost to solve the problem, the good or the bad way… The bad way is to make sure no such events will take place there again. What happened was the logic of the state, aimed at establishing a complete sovereignty over the national territory, and the stubborn determination of all those who had made up their mind to resist it.”

Media reports say the government-run combat operation produced a hair-raising death-toll. How do you think this will affect the populace and their attitude toward the central government?

“Had the Tajik authorities missed the chance and failed to respond to that challenge, they would have lost face; the populace would have never respected them. Those ‘upstairs’ could have ordered political chaos (precisely what is happening in Somalia and Syria). I don’t know about other countries. I feel sure that statehood should be held firm in the Orient. Others should be afraid of it, or at least realize that playing games with it would be risky. A weak state is one nobody respects.”