The taste of oil: Ukraine expects Baku to fill pipeline

President Viktor Yushchenko’s visit to Azerbaijan smells of oil. He is there to continue the talks that Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych held last Wednesday in Warsaw with his Polish counterpart about extending the Odesa-Brody oil pipeline to Plock. On his part, Polish premier Jaroslaw Kaczynski unveiled a good incentive at the Krynica Forum — the EU can offer к400 million to finish the construction of the pipeline’s remaining segment, so that oil can run through to Poland and then to other EU countries.

The Ukrainian president is not hiding the fact that the pipeline will be one of the main subjects of his talks with Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliev. He made this statement in an interview with the Azeri news agency Trend on the eve of his visit to Azerbaijan. “The mutual interests of our countries and their favorable geographic situation are the economic basis of partnership between Ukraine and Azerbaijan. They in turn open new prospects for creating jointly-run transportation corridors, especially in the energy sector,” the agency quotes Yushchenko as saying.

Besides its interest in energy cooperation with Azerbaijan, Ukraine is also prepared to side with Baku in the settlement of the Karabakh conflict. “We are prepared, within the framework of GUAM agreements, to continue supporting the Azerbaijani side in order to draw the international community’s attention to the need to redouble efforts aimed at settling the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict as well as other so-called frozen conflicts on the territory of GUAM member states,” President Yushchenko said.

It is also expected that the Ukrainian-Azerbaijani summit will be a new step toward galvanizing the Organization for Democracy and Economic Development — GUAM. Ukraine’s president believes that one of the top priorities for this organization is the necessity to use the positive experience of other international institutions, including the WTO. The GUAM member states have signed an agreement on establishing a free trade area for Azerbaijan, Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine. But the free trade area is not working because not all participants in this association have ratified the agreement in their parliaments. Obviously, all the GUAM members would like this organization to yield tangible fruits that will benefit the average citizen.

What hopes is Azerbaijan pinning on the Ukrainian president’s visit? Does Baku have oil to fill the Odesa-Brody-Plock pipeline? Is Azerbaijan interested in a GUAM-based peacekeeping force? An Azeri expert answers these questions below.

COMMENTARY

Farid KAKHRAMANOV, Turan Azerbaijani news agency:

“Ukraine is Azerbaijan’s GUAM partner. Therefore, Baku is primarily expecting Kyiv to renew political support for Azerbaijan’s position in the Karabakh settlement. The two presidents will undoubtedly discuss problems of security in general and energy security in particular. Baku is prepared to consider the question of delivering oil and oil products from Azerbaijan to Ukraine. Baku is interested in cooperating in the aerospace industry and the development of transportation corridors.

“The Yushchenko-Aliev talks may give impetus to the formation of a GUAM-based peacekeeping unit because this is a burning issue for all the members of the association. In the light of a likely breakthrough in the Karabakh settlement issue, when it comes time to stationing peacekeeping forces Azerbaijan will find it very convenient to deploy GUAM forces.

“Baku is well aware of the Ukrainian side’s great hopes for the realization of the Odesa-Brody-Plock pipeline. But, frankly speaking, Azerbaijan does have the necessary capacity. We expect to begin to producing about 50 million tons of oil this year, which is the peak level. But this oil will run through the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline, and, besides, Azerbaijan already has a commitment to supply at least five million tons a year.

“Thus, it would be wrong to rely only on the prospect of Azerbaijan using the Baku-Supsa-Odesa-Brody-Plock-Gdansk route. In all probability, this route can be fully utilized if Azerbaijan chooses to transship Kazakh oil.