Tension Relieved
One of the things that hit the headlines and was the subject of cellular phone calls last Friday was dismissal of Serhiy Yermilov, Minister for Fuel and Energy. The President of Ukraine’s spokesperson Olena Hromnytska announced Leonid Kuchma had signed an edict to this effect on the same day.
Mr. Yermilov thus served two terms as Minister for Fuel and Energy: from July 2000 through April 2001 and from November 30, 2002, through March 5, 2004. The rumors of his imminent dismissal, actively spread by those opposing the use of the Odesa-Brody oil pipeline in the original direction, had always reached their peak in the most crucial periods, when the government was about to make a decision on this issue. In addition to this project, Mr. Yermilov was also in charge of the gas transit consortium (in both cases he presided over interdepartmental governmental commissions), and the already partially implemented project of a power station coal market. These were simultaneously the key areas of the ministry’s responsibility and the sore points of this country’s energy sector. For the minister’s policy was not to the liking of many. This policy may have been somewhat inflexible and straightforward, but Mr. Yermilov had too limited room for maneuver. These three areas of the Ukrainian fuel and energy complex came under the pressure of too powerful lobbyists, and Mr. Yermilov was a pain for too many of them.
Some clarification was provided by People’s Deputy Viktor Turmanov (Regions of Ukraine faction), leader of the Coal Miners Union. He said he was going to take legal action against Yermilov, which means the project of a power station coal market has seriously affected the interests of coal barons and the financial-industrial groups they are related to.
In truth, the dismissal was top news just for a few minutes. Then everybody rushed headlong into guessing who will be the new minister and what consequences this will lead to. Among the most likely candidates is Serhiy Tulub, the current head of Enerhoatom, who, like Yermilov, has already twice occupied the main chair in the ministry. He managed not only to breath new life into the almost bankrupt company but also to maintain balanced relations with the authorities at all levels. Highly efficient and vigorous, Mr. Tulub has unique experience in managing this country’s multifaceted energy sector.
The next candidate who stands quite fair chances is Yury Boiko, Deputy Minister for Fuel and Energy and president of the Naftohaz Ukrayiny national joint-stock company. He is also a highly qualified expert who has some important advantages, such as youth and Moscow’s support. His downside is tacit approval of using the Odesa- Brody oil pipeline in the reverse mode and, hence, a lukewarm attitude toward him in the West and in the Europe-oriented circles of the Ukrainian establishment.
Some sources suggest the candidature of Oleksandr Todiychuk, currently president of Ukrtransnafta and Ukraine’s special commissioner for the Eurasian Oil Transport Corridor (EAOTC). This option would, of course, be welcomed in Europe, but even Mr. Todiychuk’s closest entourage does not take this scenario seriously.
Very few also mention former Vice Premier Vitaly Haiduk whose erudition in economic and energy matters still matters in the current situation. As Mr. Haiduk may be still haunted by the memories of the acute energy-related problems he had to tackle, he could immediately get off to a flying start... Yet, sound reasoning says that when he left his office with a scandal related to the establishment of an international gas consortium, he in fact forfeited any possibility of coming back, at least in the near future.
Incidentally, The Day’s sources close to fuel and energy top managers say Mr. Yermilov was fired after he had asked some apparently taboo questions last Thursday at the meeting of the EAOTC governmental commission for which the main speakers, Naftohaz executives, failed to show up. He asked why an offshore company which had set a prohibitive tariff of $14 a ton was appointed operator of the Port of Pivdenny and why and on what grounds the Russian Transneft was allowed to practically monopolize the transport of oil through he Druzhba oil pipeline system. Will the next minister be perhaps able to answers these questions?
