Test for presidential candidates

On Sept. 24–27, 2009, Yalta hosted to the sixth Yalta European Strategy (YES) summit. The key topic on the agenda was “Ukraine and the World after the Crisis.” This traditional nongovernmental forum attracted businessmen and politicians from all over the world, including IMF Mission chief in Ukraine Ceyla Pazarbasioglu, WB Vice President Philippe Le Houerou, Nabucco pipeline project advisor Joschka Fischer, President Shimon Peres of Israel, former Polish President Alexander Kwasniewski, and others.

Remarkably, YES 2009 was attended by three key Ukrainian presidential candidates — Viktor Yanukovych, Yulia Tymoshenko, and Arsenii Yatseniuk. The ICTV channel organized a live link-up to let them address the summit and the Ukrainian viewers. Interestingly, each spoke about societal consolidation, domestic reforms, and pragmatic foreign relations.

Tymoshenko was the first speaker. Apart from general phraseology and in reply to a question by a CE official, she admitted that “the whole democratic team made a mistake when it failed to find the inspiration, instruments, and platform for a complete consolidation of its work.” The prime minister added that “this resulted in a major disillusionment in Ukraine and the world.”

She was followed by the Front of Changes leader Arsenii Yatseniuk who, unlike the other candidates, addressed the audience in English. He then switched in Ukrainian, focusing on Ukraine’s integration into Great Europe and the development of democracy and economy. His speech was emotional, but most importantly, he broached the subjects that had long become top priorities in Europe: environment, education, and health care.

The last one to speak was Yanukovych, who had few surprises for the audience. Of course, he criticized Prime Minister Tymoshenko and the Cabinet’s lack of professionalism and then resorted to his standard repertoire about the need to raise the social standard and that he was sure he would win the election. He failed to give clear-cut answers to certain questions, such as about whether he supported the recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

The summit’s findings were resolutely unequivocal: Ukraine needs reforms and this is the only way to overcome the consequences of the crisis. Any team that will come to after the presidential elections will face the need of carry out economic, legal, and energy reforms.

COMMENTARIES

Oleksandr PASKHAVER, president, Economic Development Center:

“I can say that what I heard from other noted experts confirms the conclusions reached by our experts. They said that this crisis, affecting as it is the real economic and financial sphere, may have a sequel, particularly in terms of sluggish economic growth.

“For Ukraine this is the first crisis of such scope, so we must prepare our economy for the possible risks by way of reforms. A reformed economy shows a sharper response when challenged by a crisis. Therefore, we need to take the necessary measures, above all in the banking sector, to prevent negative phenomena there and speed up the revival of the crediting process. It is also important to take measures aimed at increasing consumer demand against the background of the dropping personal income level so as to secure a steady economic growth.

“The wise old rulers of the world economy who were present at the summit were traditional cautious in their forecasts. What I’ve just said is a brief account of their smooth formulations. This is a hard crisis that is very likely to be followed by a series of economic declines, but they … will be considerably milder. Let me say again that there is a possibility that the world economy will simply revive at a lower rate in the next two or three years. The banking sphere and the financial sector will have the greatest impact on the subsequent economic situation.

“The impact of the political factor on Ukraine’s economy was discussed, but the subject wasn’t on top of the agenda. Of course, the economic recovery of any country relies on the population’s confidence in the financial sphere. Otherwise it’s very hard to persuade people to part with their money so it can be channeled into the real sector of the economy. Without this confidence it is hard to expect the economy to recover.

“Enhancing public confidence has a direct bearing on the stability of the political system. However, this factor won’t be playing a crucial role. Despite all political aspects, Ukraine’s economy quickly reached the bottom and started to grow again. The two above-mentioned factors will be defining for Ukraine and the rest of the world.”

Rainer Lindner, executive director, Committee on Eastern European Economic Relations:

“First of all, this meeting is especially relevant this year. It made it possible for the world public to meet with the presidential candidates. Second, in conditions of crisis it is even more important to learn about the situation and economic problems in Ukraine and their assessment by international economists, politicians, and Ukrainians themselves. Third, here one finds such “soft” factors as a chance to communicate face to face, which is every important for such forums. Indeed, YES is a very important event; we can meet every year and discuss joint political and economic projects.

“Regarding the presidential candidates whom I saw and heard, I believe that Yulia Tymoshenko made a very compact and well-prepared presentation. She succeeded in showing the international guests the direction in which the Ukrainian train will go if she is elected president.

“This does not mean that the other [two] candidates don’t stand a chance. This remains an open question. I think that the other candidates will have room for themselves in Ukraine’s political space. However, my impression is that the prime minister’s speech at the Yalta summit was the most adequate one.”

Oleksii HARAN, director, School of Political Analysis, Kyiv Mohyla Academy National University:

“I would rather refer to this meeting an annual conference involving politicians and experts rather than a summit. It’s very important that YES is not a governmental organization and that it is financed by a Ukrainian businessman and philanthropist (Viktor Pinchuk. — Author). It is meant to lobby for the Ukrainian interests in Europe. What made this summit special was the presence of the key Ukrainian presidential candidates. I must say that the presenters had certain problems, because they addressed a Western and a Ukrainian audience at the same time. Unlike the Ukrainian audience, which is accustomed to emotional rally-like speeches, Westerners expect more analysis with straight answers to specific questions.

“Regarding Arsenii Yatseniuk’s speech, he failed to set the right tone. He spoke mostly to the Ukrainian audience, i.e., he traditionally lashed out at the government, oligarchs, and the political system, yet he lacked specific argumentation and analysis. Moreover, as noted [later] by Western experts, there were elements of criticism with regard to the European Union. This could be understandable in Ukraine, but Western experts were a bit disappointed. The more so that Yatseniuk represents the younger generation and speaks English, so they expected him to take a more European stand.

“Concerning Viktor Yanukovych’s presentation, I should point out that the opposition leader felt ill at ease. Besides, he did not offer anything new, just the usual points repeated over and over again by the Party of Regions: criticism of their Orange opponents, the government, and so on. And the gaffe he made during the discussion of his proposal to recognize Abkhazia and South Ossetia was a bad mistake, because serious Western politicians avoid the subject of formal recognition of these two self-styled republics.

“In contrast, I would say that Yulia Tymoshenko’s speech was in the right key. Later, we discussed it with European experts. They knew all about the criticism aimed the government and the ambiguous nature of its actions, yet they said that her messages were the clearest, including cooperation with the EU.”

Marek SIWIEC, member of the European Parliament:

“People from all over the world, the political and economic elite had an opportunity to listen to what Ukraine’s main presidential candidates had to say. It was an opportunity to hear new ideas, new decisions, and new plans for Ukraine. I could see that you are in for a very tough presidential race, as all the candidates, including Mr. Yanukovych and Ms. Tymoshenko, demonstrated different approaches to life in Ukraine. I could see that they all want to collect votes, but I don’t think that votes can be collected using slogans only.

“I believe that people who gathered for the YES summit take an interest in Ukraine; there were many proposals and debates, but no specific decisions were made, although the summit proved interesting.

“Three years ago the Yalta summit adopted Agenda 2020, a program for Ukraine to be in the European Union. I think it is still topical, although the world financial crisis and the economic and political situation in Ukraine can have an impact there. At the moment I believe that there is much to be done in Ukraine; you have to adopt the right kind of laws and revive your economy.”