Three reasons for skepticism and one for optimism
It looks as though the protracted coalition endgame needs one last move. Nearly all the members of the Party of Regions faction backed Roman Zvarych’s proposal to adjourn the Verkhovna Rada again until June 20 for “consultations.” Among those who voted for this proposal were 252 MPs from the new-format coalition and one “maverick” (or perhaps “reeducated”) socialist. All the other motions — to set up committees, put on the agenda draft resolutions on the situation in the Crimea and at the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast Council as well as on arms smuggling — were voted down.
The only successful vote encouraged the MPs to suggest that there are signs of a “grand coalition” being formed. As socialist Yosyp Vinsky said, “The business part of Our Ukraine has proved to be stronger than its ideological structure.” Actually, weakness of the “ideological wing” is not just typical of Our Ukraine. Vinsky also said that some members of the SPU faction have a certain motivation (characterized by what numbers?) to support the formation of a coalition with the Party of Regions. “There are more people of this kind than I expected,” the MP said.
What does it mean if a parliament is convened two months after the elections, only to be adjourned over and over again? First of all, this is fundamental disrespect for time in those circumstances when each day brings Ukraine closer to an economic and institutional crisis. Incidentally, the deputies are still being paid during this “downtime,” and not so badly at that.
Second, the wild passions surrounding the formation of a political coalition and the brazen haggling for seats and portfolios are showing society that its elected representatives are devoid not only of any firm stands and principles but also ordinary human morality. The turmoil is exhausting the far from endless resources of the Orange Revolution, which politicians failed to tap in good time and are now simply destroying it. This has depressed the mood among voters. This is the third reason why everything that is happening in parliament and other government bodies is appalling.
As unbelievable as it sounds, opinion polls are showing that the new parliament is starting off with a negative level of trust. Are there any grounds left for optimism in this situation?
The Day posed this question to Andriy Yermolayev, director of the Sofia Center of Social Research:
“Of course, we are all disappointed by the results of the two-month-long negotiations, but by all accounts our parliament is a small child that is just learning to walk and talk. So we are learning. In a new system, those who looked like angels in the flesh proved to be potential usurpers of power; they showed not only their teeth but their tails. This has surprised and also alarmed many people. I think the political forces that have now dropped the old coalition format in fact look more like confused children than players. The fact that they are confused in terms of behavior and psychology stands out a mile.
“As for the political-economic aspect of the matter (you cannot escape it), the industrial oligarchs have rebelled against the shady game being played by professional politicians. Those whom I call Ukrainian “red deer” are big-time businessmen, who have long kept a low profile. At first they were silent when the financial nomenklatura oligarchy held sway. Then they invested money and confided in political managers, and now they have found themselves at the edge of a substitution bench, looking at their money going stupidly down the drain.
“The rebellion of the Ukrainian “red deer” has triggered real political upheaval. Look: practically all the forces represented in parliament — orange, blue and multicolored — are being split into those who are real taxpayers, commodity producers, employers and masters of big cities and regions, and those who, vested with a credit of trust and political status, have long been attempting to manipulate the government. Incidentally, Ukraine was in the same situation during the first republic, but I think that professional politicians and voluntarists were more successful at the time. Now the usurpation of power has flopped.
“What scenarios are possible? Firstly, Our Ukraine may strike an alliance with the eastern industrial circles. So far, many political scientists and journalists are looking on this as a kind of a conspiracy between the Party of Regions and Our Ukraine. But I’d like to emphasize that changes have occurred not only in the political and psychological map of events but also in their ‘architecture.’ It is the industrial ‘red deer,’ not the Party of Regions, which are playing first fiddle in the talks. You can see the old, well-known oligarchs as well as new players here. In fact, it is they who are really negotiating power sharing, although ostensibly they are delegating power to the political class.
“I do not rule out the possibility that they will finally form a coalition between the two political forces — Our Ukraine and the Party of Regions. At the same time, this project is full of risks. First, in spite of all these under- carpet movements, the general public will consider this kind of alliance a betrayal. Moreover, if the coalition formation is speeded up, it may well provoke serious internal crises both in Our Ukraine and in the Party of Regions. So the price of the question is quite high. Will the negotiators be able to ward off the collapse of and new conflicts within their parties?
“Nor do I rule out another scenario that I call the ‘transit option.’ It may also be quite suitable for some time. The gist of this option is that coalition talks will go on, but this time it will be the Ukrainian ‘red deer’ who will be calling the tune. They will propose forming the parliamentary leadership without a parliamentary coalition, as a stop-gap measure. We would then in fact have a ‘soft coalition.’ What for? First of all, this would allow curbing passions about desertions, betrayals, etc.
“Second, this would allow the president to keep his finger on the pulse of government at least until September. After all, the bargaining for key offices is really tough now. Removing the ambitious Tymoshenko and Moroz is one thing, but giving posts to recent political adversaries is quite a different thing. So the situation is rather volatile.
“We also cannot rule out a ‘no war, no peace’ scenario, when everybody tires of the never-ending changes and when there is an exchange of accusations. In the end, parliament will take a recess, but the president will not dissolve it. It will be easier to make deals in the fall, though.”
