By Viktor ZAMYATIN, The Day
The presidents of Ukraine and Moldova have discussed settlement of the
Transnistrian conflict, news agencies report. According to Interfax, Petru
Lucinschi highly appreciated the role of Ukraine as a guarantor of settling
the Transnistrian problem. At the same time, on Thursday, the breakaway
Transnistria's leader Igor Smirnov also told Leonid Kuchma by telephone
about his interest in Ukraine intensifying its efforts to solve the Transnistria
issue. In other words, everything looks smooth.
In reality, the picture in the region, so close to Odesa, is somewhat
different. For example, a recently published Carnegie Endowment study says
the efforts of Russia, Ukraine, and OSCE aimed to settle the Transnistrian
conflict seem to be clearly inadequate. The Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign
Affairs agrees with this in principle. The Ministry says Moscow's and Kyiv's
peacemaking efforts would be sufficient if Russia sincerely wished to settle
the conflict. But when Moscow, supporting in word Moldova's territorial
integrity, quite often receives separatist-in-chief Smirnov, this already
testifies to support he gets from forces at least having influence on Russian
policies. Incidentally, the Carnegie Endowment study names Gazprom as one
of those forces. And it is no accident that Moscow so stubbornly resisted
the sending of a Ukrainian peacekeeping force to the region (it was agreed
at last that military observers may be present). What is absolutely obvious
is Russia's proclivity to diktat and domination all over the post-Soviet
space, a factual dependence on Moscow of not only Moldova but also Ukraine,
and Ukraine's relative military and political weakness, despite the fact
that the situation in Transnistria is a direct threat to Ukraine's national
security. Incidentally, Transnistria is one of the main sources of the
contraband flooding Ukraine.
Joint efforts by Moscow, Kyiv and OSCE, to solve the Transnistrian conflict
could set a new multilateral framework for settling all post-Soviet conflicts,
write the Carnegie Endowment authors. But it will only be productive when
the West, especially the most advanced countries, comes to grips with the
problem.
According to the study authors, in light of NATO expansion, the West
should be directly interested in full stability in the region. The Ukrainian
Foreign Ministry believes nothing will change at all in Transnistria without
serious Western political pressure. In the final analysis, Ukraine would
not lose out in any case.
This may be on the agenda of a multilateral summit on Transnistrian
issues now in preparation.
As to the idea of a customs union between Ukraine and Moldova, put forward
two years ago, both presidents seem to have forgotten it.






