Transnistria: Betting on the West?

In reality, the picture in the region, so close to Odesa, is somewhat different. For example, a recently published Carnegie Endowment study says the efforts of Russia, Ukraine, and OSCE aimed to settle the Transnistrian conflict seem to be clearly inadequate. The Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs agrees with this in principle. The Ministry says Moscow's and Kyiv's peacemaking efforts would be sufficient if Russia sincerely wished to settle the conflict. But when Moscow, supporting in word Moldova's territorial integrity, quite often receives separatist-in-chief Smirnov, this already testifies to support he gets from forces at least having influence on Russian policies. Incidentally, the Carnegie Endowment study names Gazprom as one of those forces. And it is no accident that Moscow so stubbornly resisted the sending of a Ukrainian peacekeeping force to the region (it was agreed at last that military observers may be present). What is absolutely obvious is Russia's proclivity to diktat and domination all over the post-Soviet space, a factual dependence on Moscow of not only Moldova but also Ukraine, and Ukraine's relative military and political weakness, despite the fact that the situation in Transnistria is a direct threat to Ukraine's national security. Incidentally, Transnistria is one of the main sources of the contraband flooding Ukraine.

Joint efforts by Moscow, Kyiv and OSCE, to solve the Transnistrian conflict could set a new multilateral framework for settling all post-Soviet conflicts, write the Carnegie Endowment authors. But it will only be productive when the West, especially the most advanced countries, comes to grips with the problem.

According to the study authors, in light of NATO expansion, the West should be directly interested in full stability in the region. The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry believes nothing will change at all in Transnistria without serious Western political pressure. In the final analysis, Ukraine would not lose out in any case.

This may be on the agenda of a multilateral summit on Transnistrian issues now in preparation.

As to the idea of a customs union between Ukraine and Moldova, put forward two years ago, both presidents seem to have forgotten it.