Ukraine-NATO: Warming Up Before the Marathon
The NATO delegation to Ukraine led by Secretary General Lord Robertson ended its visit on July 10. It caused varying comments for various reasons. The Russian press has always eyed suspiciously all Ukrainian attempts to gradually become a normal part of a normal Europe. In Ukraine, some apparently expected NATO to immediately approve Ukrainian initiatives; others remain disillusioned about the powers that be in general. When all is said and done, the Ukrainian political system is what it is at all levels, yet it seems to be demonstrating an ability to change for the better, as evidenced by the current phase of Ukrainian- NATO relations. As for NATO, Yevhen Marchuk, Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council, says the alliance is a major league team, which Ukraine is still to join after it proves it can live by that league’s standards. At the end of The Day, the NATO visit was not a failure, the more so that Lord Robertson described it as a success. Perhaps it would be more accurate to describe the situation as one in which success is in Ukraine’s hands; everything now depends on how those in power will behave, whether they can convince themselves, the people, and the West that the changes required as a ticket for the NATO train are inevitable and irreversible.
The NATO delegation, led by Secretary General Robertson, visited Kyiv, Donetsk, and Lviv, met with the Ukrainian political leadership, took part in a jubilee meeting of the Ukraine-NATO Commission. The Secretary General took part in the ceremony of opening a factory destroying antipersonnel mines in Donetsk. A number of conferences were held during the last two days of the visit, summing up what had been accomplished in the bilateral relationship – and the special partnership charter, being the formal occasion, was mentioned among other things, while all eyes were on Secretary General Lord George Robertson and what signal he might give. On The Day of the delegation’s arrival in Kyiv, as had been promised previously, Leonid Kuchma signed an edict confirming the NSDC May 23 resolution on Ukraine’s integration into Euro- Atlantic structures, NATO included. And then the signal came. At the conference, Ukraine-NATO: Basic Accomplishments and Prospects of Cooperation, organized by the Razumkov Center in Kyiv in collaboration with NATO Information and Documentation Center, NSDC, and Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Lord Robertson replied to President Kuchma (who had repeatedly stressed that Ukraine would go as far in its cooperation with NATO as NATO would): NATO has supported and will continue to support the Ukrainian aspirations; the alliance is prepared to go as far in its cooperation with Ukraine as the latter is.
The secretary general also noted that practical NATO-Ukrainian cooperation was now deeper, compared to other partners, including even Russia. Simultaneously, Lord Robertson stressed at the conference – as he had after meetings with Ukrainian political leaders and would do later in Donetsk – that the time of declarations was past; Ukraine now had to implement the decisions and accords before the Prague summit, in order to demonstrate that work is actually being done. There is much to be done by Ukraine, he emphasized, and the people must become aware of their responsibility; reforms must continue, otherwise all NATO efforts, all its aid to Ukraine would be regarded as squandered. At the same time, the secretary general avoided actually discussing Ukraine’s admission anytime in the future, which was only natural, considering the staggering amount of work to be done by Ukraine. He called for a realistic approach, saying we have a long way to go. NSDC former Secretary Volodymyr Horbulin described that road as a marathon.
POLITICAL DIMENSION
Lord Robertson and his delegation’s visit can be considered important also from the standpoint of representation; for the first time Ukraine was visited not only by the secretary general, but also by ambassadors from nineteen member states. The latter will actually have the final say. They had every opportunity to scan the whole range of public opinion, form their own ideas about the overall situation in Ukraine and arrive at conclusions based on their personal experience.
Four months before the Prague summit, the situation is anything but clear. On the one hand, Lord Robertson declared at a press conference in Kyiv that there are skeptical views on the prospects of NATO-Ukrainian cooperation, but that no one is paying attention to them. On the other hand, the Polish Gazeta Wyborcza , referring to an anonymous diplomatic source, maintains that only six member states (Poland, US, Turkey, and on a more skeptical side, Germany, Hungary, and the Czech Republic) are more or less prepared to support NATO-Ukrainian rapprochement. In other words, while one-third of Ukrainians favor the idea of NATO membership, as many member countries support Ukraine’s aspiration. Lord Robertson, however, rejected the allegation, noting that all NATO ambassadors were in attendance, which was proof of NATO’s serious attitude toward Ukraine’s intentions. One Western diplomat wishing to remain anonymous told The Daythat if such issues were ever raised – in particular, NATO signals concerning Ukraine’s future membership, and that the relationship would be based primarily on declarations and memorandums without clearly defined parameters (mentioned by Dmytro Tabachnyk, chairman of the parliamentary foreign affairs committee) – the NATO ambassadors would never visit Kyiv again. What was needed was reform at every level, in every realm. There is also no secret about some NATO countries regarding Ukraine as their potential rival; others are inclined to traditionally view Ukraine as an important factor of European security, quite content not to go any further.
NSDC Deputy Secretary Serhiy Pyrozhkov told the international conference that it would not be worthwhile for Ukraine to reduce its contribution to European security to the special partnership status. Life itself demanded amendments in the charter. Practice shows that this is regarded differently by the different parties concerned. True, some of the Western ambassadors declared that Ukraine cannot afford to stay neutral under the circumstances. Foreign Minister Anatoly Zlenko told the press conference that Ukraine is prepared to do its homework, but that it will have to earn what other Western Europeans received automatically: formal recognition of its place in a united Europe.
THE RUSSIAN FACTOR
This factor did not often figure in official exchanges and declarations, but there was no denying its presence. NSDC Secretary Yevhen Marchuk stressed its importance, saying that Ukraine’s integration into Europe cannot be accomplished without coming to terms with Russia. Interfax Ukraine quotes Mr. Marchuk as saying at a round table in Donetsk that “NATO will never admit a country having problems with its neighbors.” He added that the Russian-NATO agreement in Rome shows that Moscow was very astute and how far it would go in its cooperation with the alliance. “There are no tensions at the NATO and non-NATO junctions,” he said and pointed to a number of problems Ukraine is having on other frontiers. Russian Foreign Minister Ivanov stated in an interview with Izvestiya that he doubts Ukraine’s quick admission to NATO. It is also true, however, that quick admission is not on the agenda. There are voices in Moscow saying that Ukraine-NATO rapprochement will cause the CIS to fall apart. Many in Russia are loath to even consider the possibility of withdrawing the Black Sea Navy from Ukraine. Lord Robertson stressed in Kyiv that this problem must be solved by Ukraine and Russia. Foreign Minister Anatoly Zlenko said at the international conference that “it would be adventuristic to play the Ukrainian card on the Ukrainian-European boundary line,” that Ukraine has a sufficient potential to refrain from playing such a dubious political game, and that “we’ll never be small change in Russian-Western relations.” He also said that Ukraine and Russia are in different weight categories and are following different paths.
THE HUMAN FACTOR
This factor is multidimensional, particularly considering the results of polls and is constantly evolving. A survey carried out in June by the Institute of Social Research and the Institute of Social and Political Psychology shows that between 34% (ISR) and 42% (ISPP) of the respondents distrust NATO. The picture was different two years ago and the number of those favoring NATO membership has increased. The attitude of the Ukrainian man in the street also in changing from a purely human standpoint. Workers at the antipersonnel mine destruction factory in Donetsk, according to an official in attendance, were obviously pleased to watch Lord Robertson shake hands with engineers and talk to women, saying he understood well the coal miners’ problems, because he represented a mining district in the British parliament. Incidentally, the factory is closely connected with NATO, for the mine elimination program, as the last hangover of the Cold War, was largely financed by the Canadian Embassy in Ukraine. The secretary general also visited School No. 115 in Donetsk and met the children – another point scored in promoting a positive attitude. Lord Robertson was impressed by the children’s progress in English and French, remarking that they would make good office staff in Brussels. It was thus, through communicating with a person at the head of a world body, that an altogether different image of that person and body was formed. Such aspects may well turn out considerably more convincing than any political declarations.
Interestingly, when asked if Donetsk would be from now on considered an eastern bulwark of NATO, Lord Robertson replied that such terminology is no longer used; there are no bulwarks and bastions, there are no frontiers. And the monument to John Hughes, the British founder of Donetsk, must have reminded the secretary general that Ukraine’s ties with the West have a longer history than is generally believed.
There is yet another aspect to the human factor, as people always better understand a clearly formulated task. By the same token, Ukraine’s movement toward NATO will be easier if it is kept in accordance with a clear national program consisting of not only documents – a new security concept, new military doctrine, and new foreign political concept – but also a great deal of practical effort relying on guaranteed budget appropriations along with information and educational support.
NATO requires from Ukraine specific efforts before resorting to specific declarations. Much has been written about these requirements: military reform, civilian control over the armed forces, the democratization of political life, competitive market economy, developing a civil society, and a free press. All these requirements are perfectly justified and attainable. Most importantly, they all benefit Ukraine. When asked in Donetsk how much it would cost Ukraine to join NATO, NSDC Secretary Yevhen Marchuk replied that this is our problem.
This goal calls for rallying the political elite and uniting society as a whole. Incidentally, the best proof of changing views among the Ukrainian politicians is what Heorhy Kriuchkov, the Communist chairman of the parliament’s National Defense and Security Committee, told The Day: “Can we ignore a factor of NATO’s caliber today? No. Talking of rapprochement with NATO, we admit that we have no alternative. The point is to soberly calculate how much it will cost us, especially in terms of defense spending and reductions in the armed forces... NATO demands democratization from us. They are right. We must enter NATO and the European Union as a democratic country.”
Thus all the required signals have been received: what to do and how to be in a position to have a serious discussion, and what must not be done. Both sides make it clear that they are working hard to prepare for the Prague summit, which promises to be a new phase in Ukrainian-NATO relations. Both sides say they are fully aware that this will actually be just the beginning, a warm-up before the marathon.
