Ukrainian-Polish Strategic Partnership Basted in Oil
Oil was among the key subjects at the recent sitting of the Ukrainian-Polish Presidential Consulting Committee in Lviv and during the talks with Polish Speaker Macej Plazynski that began on July 2. And it was not so much oil as it was oil transit. The topic seems to be in the limelight for the first time in Ukrainian-Polish relations.
Ukrainian-Polish strategic partnership exuded an aroma of Caspian oil even some years ago. Much has been said and written about both countries being interested in the quickest possible implementation of Ukrainian transit capacities for this oil, that the Odesa oil terminal and Odesa-Brody-Adamov a Zastava- Gdansk pipeline must be completed immediately, whereupon oil could be directed to Germany and other Western consumers via Poland, which would only benefit Ukraine and Poland. True, when Polish Premier Jerzy Buzek said in an interview with The Day that his country was very interested in that project he added that so far no one had made any cost estimates or figured out where to get the money and who would make how much. In other words, the interest was basically theoretical. Practical steps have started being taken now. In Lviv, the problem was discussed by NDSC head Yevhen Marchuk and his Polish counterpart Marek Siwiec. Polish Speaker Macej Plazynski started his trip to Ukraine by visiting the uncompleted oil terminal Pivdenny. According to Mr. Siwiec, completing the Odesa- Brody pipeline is a Polish foreign policy priority; Warsaw plans to engage its banks and business people. Ukraine proposes to participate in financing EBRD projects.
Of course, there are problems. Deputy to Ukraine’s Economy Minister Viktor Kalnyk says the political aspects of oil supplies remain to be solved. 337 of Odesa-Brody’s design length of 667 kilometers have been built. Arkady Perepelytsia, head of the Pivdenny Oil Terminal construction project, says that “over 10% of design effort has been carried out” and that the available funds obviously do not suffice.
The main point remains unclear: How much oil, where from, and where to can be transited via Ukraine? Some experts believe the Caspian oil fields will not measure up to predicted yields.
Yevhen Marchuk considers that the Odesa-Brody pipeline can be profitable only if handling at least 25-30 million tons a year. He further suspects that the prospect alarms opponents of the Ukrainian option. The alternative oil transit projects, among them the Turkish option as the main route of Azerbaijan oil exports, include those of Bulgaria, Romania, and Russia. Each of these countries will apparently make every effort to get the better of its rivals, using, among other things, the influential Russian oil lobby in Kyiv. In addition, certain sources indicate that the Ukrainian government does not support all Polish proposals concerning the joint project.
In any case, partnership reinforced by real interests is better than all possible declarations. So far it is clear that the Polish interest in Ukraine remains. Also, one ought to remember that Poland holds a part of the Russian oil export pipeline being built to bypass Ukraine.
