Ukrainian-Russian presidential meeting is set for Moscow, December 17. What to expect from it?

What do Moscow experts expect from the coming presidential meeting? The Day asked independent Moscow journalist Semen Novoprudsky for comments.

“As with all recent meetings, this one will be kept a mystery till the latest possible moment. Now to what is more or less known and has leaked to the public: Economic Development Minister Aleksey Ulyukaev, the president’s confidant who has received an unusual right to express the position of the Russian government sometimes, said Russia was not engaged in any negotiations with Ukraine on the Customs Union (CU). The chief unresolved issue is whether the presidents will sign any documents related to the CU, lower gas prices for Ukraine and multi-billion dollar loan, as was rumored. In view of the difficult economic situation in Russia now, the Russian government may try to force Ukraine to join the CU somehow. I highly doubt that they will sign a treaty or a firm credit agreement.

“I can hardly imagine revision of gas contracts, too, because it would set a precedent for all gas contracts, and given that Russia is fighting a protracted legal battle with the European Union on the issue, it is unlikely that Ukraine will be able to achieve substantial discounts on gas.

“I think this meeting will end in nothing at all or some statements of intent at most, perhaps a few Russian promises to Ukraine, but lacking any guarantees. Russia itself due to its economic and partly political problems would lose from any action that Ukraine really needs. Putin would celebrate a huge domestic political victory should he make Ukraine join the CU, but a substantial loan to that country and especially a revised gas deal would look for the Kremlin as unprecedented concessions.

“Regarding Euromaidan’s possible influence on the meeting, it can be twofold. Many people here are seeing Euromaidan as the reason behind reformatting of the state propaganda machine [creating news agency Russia Today from RIA Novosti and the Voice of Russia radio station. – Ed.]. The threat of what was called the Orange Revolution here, that is, the political turmoil, is still the paramount danger to the Russian authorities. Based on it, the Kremlin makes decisions on domestic policies.

“At the meeting, Putin will try to test the boundaries of Yanukovych’s resistance to political pressure. He will try to understand how firmly Yanukovych is holding to power, and base his decisions on this information. Russia cannot afford a strategic bribe to Ukraine.

“Objectively, Euromaidan is reducing the Kremlin’s confidence in Yanukovych as a reliable partner. The Kremlin will in any case doubt the strength of Yanukovych’s domestic position. They may well believe that a loan to Yanukovych will strengthen his regime and turn him into an absolutely obedient Russian stooge. The problem is that the Russian stance on Ukraine has not been fully defined. The Kremlin clearly did not want the Ukrainian government to make a choice in favor of Europe and sign the Association Agreement.

“However, Russia lacks clear understanding of how it is going to build a relationship with Ukraine should the latter abandon its EU rapprochement for good. Surprisingly, Russia has no plan B for that contingency.”