Virus of separatism

Great Britain and Scotland have signed an agreement that determines the procedures of the 2014 referendum with a single Yes/No question on Scottish independence. British Prime Minister David Cameron flew to Edinburgh to sign the document with First Minister Alex Salmond who is the leader of the Scottish National Party.

Under the agreement, the referendum on further devolution of two parts of the UK is to be held in the fall of 2014. After signing the document Salmond said the deal confirms the fundamental right of the people of Scotland to choose their own future. Cameron noted that the agreement means that both sides have decided to respect each other, and that he will do his best to convince Scotland to remain within the UK.

In fact, London wanted the referendum to be held earlier, considering that the supporters of independence are still the minority. TNS-BMRB poll in October, quoted by Agence France-Presse, shows that 28 percent of the respondents are for and 53 percent against Scotland’s independence. Most support the idea of broader powers for the Scottish parliament and government, and smaller contributions to the central budget.

In 2014, the Commonwealth Games will be held in Scotland, along with broad scale festivities marking the 700th anniversary of the Battle of Bannockburn when the Scottish army defeated that of Edward II of England (which allowed Scotland to remain independent for another 400 years). The nationalists plan to use both events to revive national self-consciousness.

For the referendum architects, the main task is to promote the economic benefits of Scotland’s independence. Deputy First Minister Nicola Sturgeon said an independent Scotland will stand a better chance of surviving. She explained that this does not mean a complete break with Britain, with which Scotland will have a lot in common – particularly the pound sterling – after the referendum.

The independence proponents in Edinburgh pin their hopes on controlling the oil-rich North Sea shelf and high oil and gas prices. The problem for the radical Scottish nationalists is that London will never agree to surrender the oil resources to a breakaway territory. Aleksei Budargin, research fellow with the British Study Center at the Russian Academy’s Institute of Europe, doubts that the British government will agree to part with 99 percent of its oil fields: “Even though the Scottish nationalists have long been claiming the North Sea’s natural resources, these claims do not look convincing enough from the legal point of view.” He adds that the economy of Scotland actually does not have an economic advantage, and that it is “strong only for as long as it is part of Britain.”

Another problem for the Scottish nationalists is the issue of UK nuclear forces. Although most are deployed in Scotland, their control and maintenance are completely dependent on London. On the one hand, this is a trump card in the course of negotiations, but on the other hand this remains a big problem, considering that Scotland does not have armed forces and building them would call for heavy spending and a lot of other efforts.

In England, in the course of the independence campaign, there will appear an increasing number of people who will wonder about who is feeding whom…

Europe presents a somewhat controversial picture. While the centrist trends are gaining momentum within the European Union, there are mounting separatist moods in certain countries.

The radical New Flemish Alliance (NVA) has won the municipal elections in Belgium’s Flanders and its leader Bart De Wever will become mayor of Antwerp, Europe’s second largest port city. Right after the vote count, Wever called on the government to start talks on reshaping Belgium as a confederation. NVA believes Brussels must change the situation in which prosperous Flanders, with five Dutch-speaking provinces, remains a cash cow for depressive French-speaking Wallonia.

Prime Minister Di Rupo rejected the significance of what he said were “local” elections, adding that “this was not a federal vote.” He reminded that the federal elections would take place in 2014. Another reason for the increasing popularity of Flanders’ independence is the government’s another package of rigid measures to overcome the financial crisis. A number of experts believe The Days of Belgium in its present state are numbered. There are mounting separatist moods in Wallonia which is tired of constant accusations of insolvency, although they want to become part of France rather than an independent state.

Financial hardships in Spain have kindled the long smoldering fire of Catalan separatism. Catalonia is the country’s richest region, making up 20 percent of the Spanish economy. The Spanish constitution does not provide for the secession of any regions, although Catalan independence is a campaign promise made by the local incumbent president, Artur Mas. According to Radio Liberty, his main demand is that the central government grant Catalonia financial independence, allowing it to collect all taxes. Under the constitution, each region can have 50 percent of all taxes collected there. Mas believes that these regions are being robbed. He has promised the people that he will have the central government make special concessions.

A big rally took place in Barcelona on September 11 (various sources point to between 600,000 and 2 million participants). The protesters demanded Catalan independence now that Spain is gripped by the worst crisis. Many in this province believe that they will stand a better chance of surviving it away from Spain. Separatism has long made a nest in the Basque country and they are closely watching events in Catalonia.

Igor Rapoport, an expert on Western Europe with the Russian State Humanitarian University (RGGU), believes Catalonia, like others, stands no chance of seceding from Spain.

There is yet another European centripetal factor. All separatist-minded territories cannot imagine existing outside the European Union. Brussels has a very dim view of separatism while supporting the idea of decentralization, delegating maxim powers to local authorities, but only to a certain degree. Several years ago, the EU’s negative stand prevented Belgium’s collapse. Since then the number of those who support the independence of Flanders and Brabant has not increased. Separatism in Northern Italy is also abating.

One can long discuss the thesis of who is feeding whom, yet business, economy, finance have the final say. People in these domains are well aware that they can do business easier and better by combining efforts, not by tearing the state into pieces.