Visit in a Time of Change
The visit President Leonid Kuchma paid to Uzbekistan on October 12-13, after Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan had proclaimed a new Eurasian Economic Commonwealth in Astana last Tuesday, occurred under new conditions, the conditions of a new reality compared to last year when the president of Uzbekistan was in Kyiv. This newly-formed entity allows us to speak about not only a turning point in the CIS, a more and more ailing structure, but also about a new system of coordinates in the post- Soviet theater.
“One of these days somebody might develop a wish to project our meeting as a counterweight to the Astana decision,” Ukrainian President Leonid Kuchma was quoted by Interfax-Ukraine as saying after talks in Tashkent with Uzbek President Islam Karimov. “This is not so.” Finally, Mr. Kuchma’s visit to Uzbekistan will be remembered for two things: first, Presidents Kuchma and Karimov said in unison that the establishment of the Eurasian Economic Community jeopardizes CIS prospects. Mr. Karimov, for instance, said it is a stillborn entity. In his opinion, this organization “is built according to an illusory scheme.” Pres. Kuchma thinks the new creation is “a time bomb” planted under the CIS. And, secondly, Pres. Karimov stated he offers Ukraine concessions on oil- and gas-rich territories of Uzbekistan. This problem still awaits close scrutiny in Kyiv and Tashkent, but the very fact of offer is unprecedented for Ukraine.
The presidents of Ukraine and Uzbekistan refrained from overtly putting GUUAM in opposition to the Eurasian community just born in Astana. They only announced that the now informal GUUAM is expected to be proclaimed as an international organization next year at the summit of this alliance.
The two presidents’ joint statement says GUUAM is entering “a new phase of its development, namely, essential deepening of economic cooperation,” particularly, more active work to set up a free trade regime. Therefore, suppositions that Uzbekistan does not so much need GUUAM have not yet come true, especially in the conditions when realities are changing in the twinkling of an eye. The establishment of a Eurasian community is sure to force GUUAM members at least to think more seriously about the problems of a free trade area, customs union, foreign policy coordination, and especially relations with Russia. Moreover, if Bulgaria and Rumania are really, not only reportedly, to be involved in GUUAM activities, the new community will also become essentially Eurasian and economic, and perhaps more competitive. However, this will also require much effort. The gas debts of all GUUAM member states to Russia will keep them on the alert.” But, in any case, it seems we can begin to forget the CIS.
Incidentally, about gas. Mr. Karimov said Uzbekistan would never opt for conditions of gas transport across its territory unfavorable to Ukraine. This refers to the Turkmenistan natural gas, the deliveries of which were agreed upon by Mr. Kuchma and the Turkmenbashi a week ago. But this also refers to the Uzbek gas Ukraine is purchasing. This looks especially interesting after Mr. Karimov invited Ukraine to receive a concession to oil- and gas-deposit areas on a tender basis, which allows prospectors to own 50% of the products as well as to enjoy oil and gas transport privileges.
In addition, Uzbekistan plans to boost military and technical cooperation with Ukraine and take part in producing the An-70 cargo aircraft (in which Russia was reportedly not interested).
The results of the visit are encouraging, especially if we manage to break the old Ukrainian tradition that agreements are fulfilled only in part at best. However, the situation does not leave us time to beat around the bush.
