“Vladimir Putin is untrustworthy…”
What should we expect, then, from the Milan talks between the Ukrainian president and his Russian counterpart?
The Day requested Hryhorii Perepelytsia, Doctor of Political Sciences, conflict researcher, a professor at Kyiv National Taras Shevchenko University, to forecast the results of the Milan talks between Poroshenko and Putin
Russia is not going to carry out any agreements. So, I do not think the Milan negotiations are worth the time Petro Poroshenko will spend talking with Putin. As the Kremlin’s master has quite a clear-cut plan of military actions, these diplomatic negotiations are just a cover for them.
While the Ukrainian side trusts the word of Russia, Putin uses this as a way to disguise the actions of Russian troops in the Donbas. We have already heard Putin assure Poroshenko about the Ilovaisk corridor for our encircled troops. As a result, this ended up with the all-out shooting of our units, while Poroshenko sincerely believed that the Russian president’s word was something to rely on.
Therefore, no matter what Putin may be saying, his words carry no weight. Moreover, this is a sinister attempt to disguise the next aggressive plans and actions. Putin exclusively relies on a military way to achieve his goals, and, from this angle, the ideological war Putin is waging only alters certain plots and myths. Earlier, Russia used to say that power had been seized by a junta with which “we cannot speak.” Moreover, this junta has no right to be the previous government’s legal successor, and “we are not obliged now to observe the agreements and treaties we signed with Ukraine, for we recognized the old government but do not recognize the new one.” But now that it is obvious that the new government and president are absolutely legitimate, they have replaced the world “junta” with “fascist regime.” Accordingly, they will be exploiting the topic of fascism to tighten Ukraine’s international isolation. This informational diplomacy of theirs is aimed, firstly, at lifting international sanctions off Russia as far as finances and influence on global oil prices are concerned, and, secondly, at preventing the Western world from rendering military aid to Ukraine. These are the essential strategic goals Putin is trying to achieve today on the international arena.
COMMENTARY
Mykhailo HONCHAR, director of energy programs at the Nomos Center, Kyiv:
“Lower prices are negative for Russia, since the bulk of its foreign exchange earnings is formed by hydrocarbons, especially petroleum and petroleum products, with gas being the second in importance. To cite the figures, Russia received 183 billion dollars in oil exports in 2012 and 2013. This was at a time when the price of oil hovered around 110 dollars a barrel. It is going down now. If this trend continues for the next year, Russia will enter a difficult period.
“There will be no immediate collapse of Russia even as the global oil price is falling. However, their reserves are unlikely to last more than three years, provided that the current trends stay and the oil price is low, hitting 60 dollars a barrel. This level is actually fatal for Russia.
“However, Russia’s collapse will come when this factor will be compounded by issues of a financial nature, for example, when the global financial markets will place even greater constraints on Russia. They have serious trouble borrowing the necessary funds already.
“Such systemic phenomena, like a collapse of a great country’s economy, are multifactorial. Should the situation be compounded by other factors, the collapse of Russia may come even sooner. Still, 2017 is the most likely year for Russia’s collapse. Should it continue on its course of expansionist aggressive foreign policy that devours its shrinking resources, it will have nowhere to look for replacement resources. Russia did not diversify its economy under the Soviets, and this makes it vulnerable.
“Is it limiting its freedom of action at the moment? It does, but only to an extent. All the sanctions imposed on Russia and the negative trend in oil prices are limiting it, but cannot contain that country. Russia is ready to respond in kind to the sanctions, as it looks to achieve geopolitical goals related to remaking and changing the world order.”
