Wanted: a Viable Opposition
A little more than a year away from the parliamentary elections, the current situation in the Ukrainian politics is unique in many ways. With the election of Viktor Yushchenko, who ran for president as part of the opposition bloc, the ruling elite and opposition have not simply swapped places. A number of circumstances have prompted political analysts to conclude that the opposition has become completely extinct, at least in parliament. Such a conclusion stems from the results of Friday’s voting, which overwhelmingly approved Yuliya Tymoshenko as prime minister of Ukraine.
As we know, President Yushchenko’s support of Tymoshenko was almost unanimously supported by all those who until recently worked for Viktor Yanukovych. Addressing a recent conference of political scientists entitled “Ukraine Before and After the 2006 Elections: the Government and Opposition,” Global Strategies Institute director Vadym Karasiov said that in doing so, “the political forces that mobilized 44% of the nation’s voters have in fact betrayed them.” Mr. Karasiov considers it a very bad sign, since parliament has been left without even a soft opposition, and nothing spoils those in power more than impunity. At the same time, nobody believes that the Communists are capable of mounting a viable opposition. Among the key opposition players during the 2006 parliamentary election campaign, Karasiov has named the United Social Democrats, the Regions Party, and the Communist Party of Ukraine. Karasiov believes that these parties stand a good chance of making it to parliament in 2006 if the election threshold of 3% of the popular vote remains unchanged. If the hurdle is raised to 5%, the United Social Democrats, Communists, and the Regions Party will have to compete for votes among themselves, especially in the country’s east. Naturally, this will limit their chances of winning seats in parliament.
Assessing Friday’s voting to approve Tymoshenko’s candidacy, Volodymyr Fesenko spoke in even harsher terms.
He believes that after such U-turns, the political forces that supported Yanukovych will find it very difficult during the forthcoming parliamentary elections to secure the votes of constituents who supported their presidential nominee. This will create opportunities for new players, especially if things don’t go smoothly for the Tymoshenko government. Among the possible contenders is parliamentary speaker Volodymyr Lytvyn with his People’s Agrarian Party. Mykola Mykhalchenko, president of the Ukrainian Academy of Political Sciences, believes that Mr. Lytvyn may head a soft opposition to the new government.
It appears, however, that a major political intrigue may be unfolding within the pro-government camp. It is not completely clear who will form the new opposition; at the same time there are some doubts as to what political force will become the party of power. Experts believe that some of the political forces that have joined the government coalition might end up on the opposition benches, for example, the Socialist Party. Karasiov believes that Yushchenko’s supporters will not run in the parliamentary elections as a single party but as a single election bloc. Whether the Socialist Party will join it remains up in the air. The answer to this question depends on how effective Yushchenko’s government will prove to be. Conference organizers believe that the Socialists currently have a tactical union with those in power. Ideological differences between Moroz and Tymoshenko might result in a split in the government and a further confrontation between them, which would undermine the authority of both political forces.
Among the possible options for the positioning of Yushchenko and Tymoshenko’s supporters, Karasiov named a single block at the helm with Yuliya Tymoshenko. Such a scenario would make Tymoshenko a very influential prime minister, whose influence would match the president’s. Meanwhile, many members of Yushchenko’s team might not like such a prospect. In a different scenario, the supporters of Yushchenko and Tymoshenko might run in the parliamentary elections as two separate blocs. However, in this case the president will not have guarantees that his bloc will garner the majority of the votes, which makes this scenario highly unlikely. In a third option, supporters of the president and prime minister might run in the parliamentary elections as separate blocs, with Yushchenko’s supporters running not as a single team, but as several teams, including one headed by Petro Poroshenko, the former nominee for prime minister. Should his team succeed, Poroshenko would thereby stake a serious claim for the seat of prime minister.
