What is alarming Western experts about our elections?
The international community is closely following the election campaign in Ukraine. Last week great interest was aroused among Western analysts by the statement of the Party of Regions leader Viktor Yanukovych, who said that any revision of Ukraine’s course toward European integration is out of the question and that Ukraine should actively continue to develop its relations with NATO. Yanukovych made this statement at a meeting with foreign diplomats, where he also said that his party is taking a “realistic approach,” and that it is too early to talk about joining the EU and NATO: we have to get rid of any romanticism and make full use of existing opportunities. Yanukovych even criticized the government for the “acute slowdown of the pace of European transformations.”
How will the political situation in Ukraine change after the parliamentary elections? What effect will their result have on relations with the West? What are the main risks on the eve of the elections? The Day addressed these questions to a group of European experts.
Alexander RAHR, Director of Programs, German Council on Foreign Relations:
“The end of the parliamentary campaign will not lead to an instantaneous stabilization of the situation in Ukraine. I think your country now has at least three, not two, political poles, and it will be more difficult to bring them together than before the Orange Revolution. Therefore, Ukraine’s transition from a presidential to a parliamentary republic can further complicate the process of political and economic stabilization in the country. It will take an all-out effort by all political forces to ward off a serious crisis. Political battles can only intensify after March 26.
“If Yanukovych’s Party of Regions wins the elections (and opinion polls indicate that this is possible), this will naturally cause a certain shock in the West, where Ukrainian developments are not being closely followed in principle, and Ukraine is only mentioned in connection with last year’s events. The West will just not believe its eyes. What will also shock the West will be the formation of a coalition between Yanukovych and Yushchenko or Tymoshenko and Yanukovych. The West will not simply know what to do with Ukraine. Of course, some political forces will be calling to restore the Yushchenko-Tymoshenko alliance. The European Union and the US will be exerting pressure on the Ukrainian political elite to make these two politicians team up. At the same time, the West will be thinking about what to do with Ukraine, which has stopped halfway to Euro-Atlantic structures. Some other forces will take quite an easy approach and say cynically, ‘The victory of anti-liberal forces relieves us of the responsibility to admit Ukraine to the European Union and NATO.’
“On the eve of the elections I see the possibility of an intensified energy crisis in Ukraine as a serious risk. If the economy goes into decline in the next six weeks before the elections, this will only provoke crowd- pleasing attitudes, radically change the entire atmosphere, and bring to parliament outright populists instead of politicians who want to do something constructive for their country. Another danger is that political battles — a normal thing in any state, especially such a pluralistic one as Ukraine, where the struggle should be waged between the three main political forces, Tymoshenko, Yushchenko and Yanukovych — may merge with a different political factor: Ukraine’s transition from a presidential to parliamentary republic. This may invalidate the entire constitution and provoke a systemic political crisis in which the established rules of the game will no longer apply. In this case political battles may go beyond the limits of a civilized struggle for power and destabilize the country more seriously than we can imagine today.”
Arnaud DUBIEN, research associate, Institute of International and Strategic Relations, France:
“Naturally, everything will depend on the results of the election. Various polls show the most diverse opinions. By all accounts, parliament will not have a clear-cut majority.
“The Party of Regions may gain over 30% of the vote, and the current government will find it very difficult to do without a coalition with Yanukovych. I rule out a clear victory of one force. It is clear that the Party of Regions will emerge victorious, but it will hardly succeed in winning the majority of votes. Will they be able to form a coalition? The question is with whom — with the Communists? There are no clear signals about this. It is also clear that even if Yushchenko manages to strike a deal with Tymoshenko and Moroz, he will not get 226 seats. So, much will depend on Lytvyn and the Communists or maybe even on the small parties that will make their way to parliament, such as those led by Vitrenko and Kravchuk, or PORA. A lot of people in the West are worried about the prospect of continuing instability against the backdrop of talk about constitutional reform and referendum. In other words, if Yushchenko fails to secure a clear majority, he may be tempted to speed up the referendum and revise the constitutional reform. Of course, everything depends on the election results, but still I do not rule out a protracted face-off between the president and the parliamentary majority. The situation may resemble Russia in 1993, except there will be no bloodshed in Ukraine. This scenario — a confrontation between a president weakened by constitutional reform and parliament, attempts to revise the reform — may bring about instability for many months on end. Let us not forget that after the presidential elections there was a short period of stability, and Ukraine cannot afford two years of instability.
“Naturally, the West does have certain preferences. Undoubtedly, the victory of Our Ukraine, the possibility of forming a coalition around the current government, and the victory of the Party of Regions is not the same thing in terms of foreign policy and Euro-Atlantic integration.”
“Yet I would not paint everything in black and white only. Yushchenko, Tarasiuk and Hrytsenko are taking the same attitude to NATO as Tymoshenko. As far as I know, even the Party of Regions does not oppose European Union membership. They take a different, somewhat ambiguous, position on NATO.
“In the West, Yanukovych is clearly associated with the last presidential elections and rigging, i.e., a record that cannot be forgotten. Everyone is aware that they will have to deal with the forces that will win, but it is very important for us that the elections be held in normal, democratic conditions. Although countries like Poland, the US, France, and Germany have more or less pronounced preferences, we will be dealing with the majority that will be elected by the people of Ukraine.
“Today one should avoid exacerbating the confrontation over constitutional reform. As far as I can see, President Yushchenko has decided to return to this issue after the elections. Undoubtedly, gas scandals can also complicate the situation. If last week’s publications are anything to go by, not everyone knows and understands what was signed. What is clear is that this was contrary to Ukraine’s interests. By all accounts, this subject will surface again after the elections. Sooner or later Ukraine will have to negotiate with Russia again. There may be other, more personality-oriented, moments, such as the attack on Petro Yushchenko, i.e., what we call mud- slinging. On the whole, I don’t think there will be excesses of the kind we saw during the presidential elections. The elections will be held against an entirely different background even if the latter is not flawless.”
Jerzy Marek NOWAKOWSKI, international commentator for the Polish weekly Wprost:
“I hope the political situation in Ukraine after the elections changes for the better: the process of reforms and Ukraine’s accession to the EU and NATO will receive a shot in the arm. But this will depend on how Ukrainian citizens vote. Judging by the results of opinion polls, a positive development is still possible. If Yulia Tymoshenko’s bloc and Our Ukraine forge a coalition, this will be the strongest bloc in parliament. If Ukrainian citizens support the process of reform, the president, and his Orange allies, Ukraine will make very substantial headway in economic and political reforms. If the victory is won by those who are seeking to reverse Ukraine’s integration into Western organizations and put the skids under the economic reforms, things may go in an absolutely different direction.
“After the Orange Revolution the world has been looking on Ukraine as a country of hopes. The Ukrainian revolution was an important step toward the creation of a democratic space on the territory of the ex-Soviet Union. I am convinced that President Yushchenko and his government will be receiving economic and political support from the West. For example, before visiting the United States, President Lech Kaczynski of Poland gave an interview that focused on the importance of backing Ukraine’s democratic development. He said that Poland is doing its utmost to support Ukraine’s accession to NATO, and he hopes that Ukraine will join the North Atlantic alliance as soon as possible.
“No matter what kind of government comes to power in Ukraine, it will receive unflagging support from the West. Naturally, if this is an Orange Revolution government, this process will unfold much faster.
“In my view, there are two main risks on the eve of the elections. The first is both sides’ tendency to rig the voting. If this happens, if the elections are not fully democratic, Ukraine will lose much of its prestige in the eyes of the West. The second risk is that power will be won by those forces that wish to slow down Ukraine’s development. Unfortunately, in spite of its latest declarations, Yanukovych’s party is one of these forces.”
