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Where there is no law, but every man does what is right in his own eyes, there is the least of real liberty
Henry M. Robert

What Lessons Will President Kuchma Have Learned in Minsk?

15 December, 1998 - 00:00


Prior to his visit to Minsk ending Saturday, President Kuchma declared
that one had

to learn the lessons of history, primarily those of the Cold War.

Because continuing to pressure Belarus "will not be the best way." In
fact, Belarus is "not only its President, but the Belarusian people in
the first place." However, both countries have got "carried away playing
politics, forgetting about the economy," Mr. Kuchma said in an interview
with Interfax.

Talking of forgetfulness, one ought to remember that Leonid Kuchma has
been President of Ukraine for the past four years. As for lessons, Comrade
Lukashenka can give him more than one at the same time. For example, how
one can renew one's office by plebiscite, the way it was previously done
by Central Asian presidents.

And how to drive one's own country down the blind alley of international
isolation. And how one can lose everything by relying on a single strategic
partner, since the Russian crisis had an effect on Belarus as strong as
it did on Russia (maybe even stronger). And how to use one's neighbor's
"well-balanced" policy, as almost all freight carriages between Russia
and Europe traverse Belarus because of Ukraine's draconian customs and
other tariffs.

Of course, one can talk all one wants on how isolation will do no good.
The fact remains that Ukraine lost its positions in Belarus not because
Minsk got isolated internationally. Commodity turnover is going from bad
to worse, one of the reasons being that double taxation was canceled only
recently and far from all Ukrainian and Belarusian goods can compete with,
say, Polish products in terms of prices and quality. Whatever the two Presidents
may have agreed upon, business is always profit-oriented, as evidenced
by Kuchma-Yeltsin accords, particularly concerning sugar supplies.

Mr. Kuchma calls for synchronized efforts. This will be possible only
if Ukraine follows in Belarus's footsteps: no reform, undivided state (i.e.,
Presidential) control over everything, and a political course set on an
unreserved union with Russia. However, the Ukrainian President has promised
the West that he will finally embark on reform, that Ukraine does not intend
to form any alliances, not yet, and that everything in Ukraine will be
done in a democratic manner.

The program of long-term Ukrainian-Belarusian economic cooperation now
being signed in Minsk will perhaps have the same lot as a similar document
signed with Russia this winter: there is a program but no cooperation,
just talk.

Just as the Ukrainian and Belarusian Presidents were talking things
over in an atmosphere of utmost sincerity, the United Social Democrats
made public a statement condemning violations of human rights in Belarus,
particularly the recent arrests in Minsk, during a meeting commemorating
the fiftieth anniversary of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights.

 

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