What is Ukraine expected to do?

Last Friday Ukraine and the European Union initialed the Association Agreement, including the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area. The document was signed by Pavlo Klimkin, head of Ukraine’s negotiation group and deputy foreign minister, and Miroslav Lajcak, head of the EU negotiation group, managing director for Russia, Eastern Neighborhood and the Western Balkans at the European External Action Service. Thus, the practical confirmation of the text of the agreement, which took five years to prepare, took place.

Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Kostiantyn Hryshchenko believes that the Association Agreement between Ukraine and the EU, which was initialed on March 30, may be signed in 6 to 12 months. “Even if you look at it from a purely technical point of view, it is going to take at least a few more months. As we can see from the past experience with other countries, the least it took was from half a year to a year,” said Hryshchenko as quoted by UNIAN. The minister announced that Ukraine and the EU had agreed upon the continuation of the practical work aimed to prepare the Agreement for signing. “On our part, we are also going to speed up this process to achieve the final result as soon as possible,” he added.

At the same time, during the talk show “ResPublika with Anna Bezulyk” on Channel 5, Klimkin made an assumption that the Agreement might be signed in the first half of 2013, during Lithuania’s presidency. Moreover, he added that a partial application of the agreement is possible before its ratification. “I had a lot of conversations with the representatives of the various EU member countries, and the general opinion today can be expressed like this: we need approximately half a year, maybe a bit more, for the technical preparation of the agreement, and after that, there is no doubt that the political factors will be taken into consideration. I think, and this is my personal impression after many conversations, that the chances of signing the agreement in the first half of 2013, during the Lithuanian presidency in the EU, are very high. Technically and politically it is quite possible to accomplish this during that period,” Klimkin said.

“Earlier the EU could temporarily enact only the economic part, but after the Lisbon Treaty they can enact the whole agreement, including the political constituent,” explained Hryshchenko.

Petro Poroshenko, minister of economic development and trade, also commented on the initialing of the agreement. At Shuster Live Show on Friday night he said, “The EU does not have another agreement of such scale with any other country, as it has with Ukraine.” Poroshenko also noted the striking amount of areas of cooperation and the depth of political and economic association that is provided by the document initialed by the parties on March 30.

“Today we have unique opportunities, which are going to bring huge amounts of potential investments to Ukraine after all the conditions are implemented and the agreement is ratified,” the minister emphasized. But at the same time he stressed that Ukraine has to respect European values and standards, democratic principles, and ensure transparent and free elections. He also demonstrated that he is fully aware of his ministry’s mission. He said that some of the most important things his institution needs to carry out, are to create a proper investment climate in the country, and harmonize Ukrainian legislation with European, which is going to create a European-style system of business management in Ukraine.

As a reminder, Ukraine and the EU completed the negotiations on the Association Agreement in December, 2011. These negotiations lasted since 2007. In order for the agreement to come into effect, it needs to be signed by the presidents and ratified by the Verkhovna Rada, the European Parliament, and the national parliaments of all EU member states (a total of 27 countries).

At present it is known that at this stage the ratification of the Association Agreement between Ukraine and the European Union in the German Bundestag (the lower house of the German parliament) is impossible. This was stated by Gunther Krichbaum, representative of the Christian Democratic Union (led by the Federal Chancellor Angela Merkel), in his interview to Deutsche Welle.

The Day asked Alexander RAR, director of Russia and CIS Programs of the German External Policy Council, to explain Berlin’s opinion concerning the initialing of the Association Agreement between Ukraine and the EU, and the conditions for the Bundestag to agree to ratify it.

“The initialing of the agreement is the first step in the acknowledgement that Ukraine’s associated status in the EU is an achievable goal. I am worried by another thing. There is a peculiar kind of bureaucracy in Brussels; on the one hand it is bureaucracy, but on the other, it is democracy. Bureaucracy put a lot of effort in this agreement, more than 15 years of work with Ukraine. And work is valued highly in Europe, so much money in salaries was paid to people, so many visits to Ukraine were organized, so many hotels were paid for in order to hold these negotiations. And now, when we have basically agreed upon everything, is the Tymoshenko case alone going to destroy the work of the past 18 years? Of course, not!

“I suppose that now each party will try to find ways to approach the other. After the initialing Ukraine will receive a signal: if the October election is considered to be democratic, and an opposition that will be given an opportunity to function appears in the Ukrainian parliament (this is very important for the West), then Germany and other leading European countries will ratify this agreement.

“But I believe the Czech parliament will delay the ratification till the last moment possible. It is a well-known fact that the Czech Republic is most critical of the Tymoshenko situation in Ukraine. That is why this process is going to last even longer, and the ratification might take as much as five years. But on the other hand, the general tendency is rather positive than negative.”

MP Oleh Zarubinsky said during his visit to Warsaw that Germany’s stand, which represents Russia’s interests in the EU, is the main obstruction in the agreement ratification process. What is your opinion of this statement?

“This is nonsense. In fact, the relations between Germany and Russia are very complicated. This is clearly understood from the German critics of the current situation in Russia, when human rights are neglected. Putin is criticized as well. Germany hopes that Ukraine will accept the West European values and hold on to them. By the way, the same applies to Russia as well. There are no backstreet intrigues there. Maybe, some happened to think so at the beginning of the 1990s. People needed to get used to the thought that the Soviet Union was falling apart. Besides Russia, new countries emerged where the Soviet Union once was: strong, independent European countries. Yes, the process did go on, while this was in people’s memory. But today this is a true historical fact, and nobody wants to change it.”

Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Kostiantyn Hryshchenko said that the Agreement might be ratified within 6 to 12 month. What exactly should be done in Ukraine for this forecast to come true?

“I can give a very simple answer to this: Yulia Tymoshenko should be released and allowed to leave the country for medical treatment. Striking her conviction off record is not necessary. She will be staying abroad, will not participate in political events, but her being in prison will not disturb Western politicians and human rights organizations. I suppose, then Hryshchenko will be right, and absolutely new opportunities are going to be available. Because the West does not want Ukraine to be part of Russia, the West will continue to attract Ukraine. Another matter is, what it can really offer to Ukraine except for the agreement ratification. A lot of work on assimilating of economies and legislation systems is to be done then.

“I think that Putin’s Russia is going to move towards the associated status with the EU. They are not going to negotiate with China, this is ridiculous. But there are some people who do not want to cooperate with Europe, who want to keep Russia’s status of a great power, who think that Russia is stronger than the EU. But it is impossible. That is why Eastern, Western, and Central Europe needs to find new ways in order to create a common economic free trade area. I think that this can also be achieved.”