What will Barack Obama’s legacy be?

The “Russian issue” and the war in eastern Ukraine

The war in the Donbas is not only a great disaster for Ukraine, but it also puts in a rather awkward position our allies, Europe as well as the US. While world leaders could do nothing to prevent the Russian aggression against Ukraine, to rally against the occupier was a matter of preserving peace in the world. In this respect, it was wrong to rule out the Budapest format negotiations (involving the US, the UK, Ukraine, and Russia) and create the Normandy format (involving Germany, France, Ukraine, and Russia), where Ukraine remained alone with Vladimir Putin and his “friends.” Now Barack Obama is sending his representatives to this country to force us to fulfill our obligations assumed in Minsk. The latter, by the way, were clearly dictated by the Russian government. The fact that the West has been effectively trying to impose the Kremlin’s will on Ukraine for more than a year could not escape notice in Washington and Brussels.

As you know, statements announcing possible deployment of an OSCE police mission in the Donbas were made before the Americans’ visit, and Putin and Poroshenko seemed to be mostly in agreement on the issue. So, should we expect elections, then?

“We informed President Petro Poroshenko and Foreign Minister Pavlo Klimkin,” Victoria Nuland said in Kyiv on April 27, “that President Barack Obama supports the full implementation of the Minsk Agreements and full de-occupation of the Ukrainian Donbas.” She also assured that some sanctions against Russia would remain because of its occupation of Crimea. Thus, it was Nuland rather than our officials who brought up the essential question that for some reason was absent from the Minsk Agreements, I mean the annexation of the Ukrainian peninsula. Following this encouraging, even if formal, statement, we heard other news. During her meeting with representatives of parliamentary factions, Nuland relayed the State Department’s demand (!) that Ukraine introduce amendments to the Constitution regarding the “special” status of the occupied territories.

Objectively, all this talk of the Donbas elections is a total sham. On the other hand, they are written down in the Minsk Agreements that were signed and are recognized by the government of Ukraine. And it is these agreements which list the withdrawal of foreign (read: Russian) troops and mercenaries from the occupied territories as their 10th provision. In fact, after such “elections,” Russia can easily say that it never declared nor recognized its presence in the Donbas, while “militant Buryats” are not controlled by the Kremlin, so Ukraine should sort them out itself. Surprisingly, many politicians took up the idea that Ukraine’s obligation to hold (in reality, allow to be held) these local elections is predicated on the said foreign forces leaving the area beforehand. This, unfortunately, is not true, but only represents a rightful desire of the Ukrainian political class.

 By Valentyn TORBA, The Day

COMMENTARIES

Hanna HOPKO, chairperson of the Verkhovna Rada’s Foreign Affairs Committee:

“They tell us that Ukraine should remove any arguments which Russia might put forward by taking a political step, that is, discussing and passing in the parliament of the law allowing to hold elections in the temporarily occupied territories. But these elections should be conducted with the involvement of the Venice Commission and the OSCE, and we need to clearly insist on our vision.

“We understand that the continuation of sanctions is a sensitive issue, given the divisions within the EU and the desire of some countries to lift the sanctions, because they harm their economies. But we must see the difference between the actual conduct of the elections and the adoption of the law in the parliament. That is, Ukraine can make this political move, if this election law meets all the standards of the Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR). Also, we need Russia to create specific security conditions prior to the elections, which should include true silence of the arms, withdrawal and localization of heavy weapons, and increased presence of international observers. And here we emphasize very clearly: without the implementation of these conditions, no elections may be held in the occupied territories. Which Ukrainian party’s candidates will agree to participate in the elections while being fired upon by the terrorists? Therefore, we must first prepare the security conditions in the pre-election period. We can say: dear friends, the law has been passed, but the elections will be held only after the abovementioned conditions are met. And this was very clearly articulated during our meeting with Victoria Nuland. We said that changes to the Constitution regarding decentralization cannot be approved before the implementation of all the security conditions that Russia has not fulfilled so far. The West understands that it is very difficult to put pressure on Vladimir Putin, that there is no progress, that the terrorists continue to bombard Ukrainian cities. And Director for European Affairs of the US National Security Council Charles Kupchan, who had returned from Hanover, said that Barack Obama wanted to see the Minsk Agreements implemented before the end of his stay in the White House. According to Kupchan, such is the ambition of the US president.

“And it gives rise to a huge issue, as they need to determine how they will pressure Russia into it. One tool is extending the sanctions to January 2017. But how are they to get Russia to actually withdraw its troops, given that its genuine interest is to imitate and hold some fake elections to finally legalize its representatives there? Meanwhile, fake elections without the participation of Ukrainian parties and politicians are absolutely not in the interest of Ukraine, and this proposal will not pass the Ukrainian parliament. Therefore, we must make a distinction between the adoption of the law on the elections in the temporarily occupied territories, meeting all the standards of the ODIHR, in the parliament, and the actual elections, which require a number of preconditions to be met, including improving the security situation and the return of control over the Ukrainian-Russian border. With regard to the amnesty law, this is another huge and hotly debated issue.

“The EU and the US are confused: they have no common strategy needed to pressure Putin into finally complying with provisions of the Minsk Agreements. So, when they tell us: ‘muster some will on your part and fulfill your obligations,’ we reply that they do not understand that without the first two conditions being met, it cannot be done, as it would be just an imitation and would do nothing to resolve the conflict.”

Mariana BETSA, spokesperson of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine:

“Ukraine is deeply concerned by the continued deterioration of the security situation in some districts of Donetsk and Luhansk regions, caused by the increasing number of armed provocations against the Ukrainian Armed Forces which have been committed by militants of illegal armed formations with the support of the Russian Federation.

“Russia, as a signatory of the Minsk Agreements (the Minsk Protocol, the Minsk Memorandum, and the Package of Measures for the Implementation of the Minsk Agreements) has not fulfilled any of the Minsk Agreements’ provisions as of April 26, 2016. The most crucial of them, which are de-escalation and a complete ceasefire, have not been implemented.

“The situation in the Donbas remains extremely tense along the entire line of contact.

“Constant violations of the Minsk Agreements by the Russian Federation undermine the efforts of Ukraine and the international community to restore peace and security in some districts of Donetsk and Luhansk regions.

“Ukraine will remain committed to the Minsk Agreements and will make concerted efforts for their implementation in full. Also, as before, we will continue to adhere to the principled position that the key to successful implementation of political, social, economic and humanitarian aspects of the Minsk Agreements is a comprehensive implementation of their military and security package.”

 Interviewed by Mykola SIRUK, The Day