Whatever Party They Build Turns Into CPSU

Rukh, the Popular Movement of Ukraine, occupies a special place in Ukraine's political parties. That membership in Rukh is attributed to any "bourgeois nationalist" regardless of what party he actually belongs to speaks volumes.

As for Rukh, the party is losing its image, however mythical, of an influential political force. It looks like it is going in quite the opposite direction, and its past achievements are perhaps the only thing it still has to recommend it.

Either the times are changing too fast or the party has come to a standstill, and its motto "Rukh on the Move" is becoming more and more urgent. One suspects that a great many of the problems they are now faced with are in one or other way associated with their leader. Vyacheslav Chornovil is becoming less and less predictable. Suffice it to recall that in 1994 Rukh campaigned against Leonid Kuchma. Four years later, when the President's "accomplishments" were painfully evident, the party suddenly switched to supporting him. Today, Rukh is once again hostile to the Chief Executive, less his policy as for not giving it the government portfolios it demands.

The party's ninth congress, held ten days ago, was meant as a turning point, not only for Rukh, but also for the twenty or so national democratic and right-centrist parties that had voiced their desire to back a joint presidential candidate.

The task was too much for Rukh. Before the congress, there were already four candidates nominated by local party organizations: Yuri Kostenko, Vyacheslav Chornovil, Bohdan Boiko, and Hennady Udovenko. Mr. Chornovil proposed to solve the problem by nominating not one but two candidates. The result was the Chornovil-Udovenko duet. Which will survive the finals will be decided next summer.

Rukh's Reforms and Order Party and other national democratic allies bound by varying levels of cooperation agreements received specific proposals as to whom Rukh wishes to see at the head of the "process of unification" of the Right and Center, and who should run for President from both Rukh and the rest of the camp.

PROGNOSES

Time will tell whether the "camp" agrees to the Chornovil-Udovenko formula. Reforms and Order is the only party, so far, whose leader Viktor Pynzenyk says they will back any candidate Rukh nominates. He presented the convention with a jar of honey and thought it best to make himself scarce before the vote, perhaps to avoid pointed questions from journalists.

A considerable number of Rukh members think the Chornovil-Udovenko alliance unlikely. Some of the Rightists attending the convention did not hide their skepticism. "What we saw today was an internal party debate that hasn't ended yet," Serhiy Zhyzhko, Deputy Chairman of the Congress of Ukrainian Nationalists, told The Day, "and if Rukh proposes one candidate we will consider him, but two candidates would complicate the situation." Volodymyr Stretovych, leader of the Christian People's Union, called on Rukh to lead the unifying process, but first suggested that they first treat their "internal party ills."

Vitaly Zhuravsky, leader of the Christian Democratic Party of Ukraine, declared that a Rukh candidate was a good idea, "but it would be better if this candidate were supported by a quorum of democratic forces."

It is another question whether one of the Rukh duo can make it to the presidential runoff? Here the point is not the obligation of every party to nominate its candidate or back someone else's. Rukh is a party with the extraordinary ambition of representing almost the entire Right side of the Ukrainian political spectrum. There is still time left before the elections, but neither Vyacheslav Chornovil, nor Hennady Udovenko lead in the polls. This reminds one of the widespread allegation that Rukh sees its ultimate objective in backing the current President in the runoff, while nominating its candidate in the first round for appearance's sake. In fact, everything is in place for precisely this maneuver; none of the Rukh people could give a satisfactory answer when asked by The Day what would happen if a Leftist and the current President turned up in the second round. Most replied using the party's classic formula: Rukh will not support the Left. In other words, it is still unclear who the party will back in the end, so statements about no support for certain politicians like Yevhen Marchuk should be regarded as premature.

CONFLICTS AND PROSPECTS

The congress's results in many respects stemmed from Rukh's evolution over the past several years. Many believe that Rukh has turned from the number one opposition force into Chornovil's personal one-man band. Indeed, its opposition, while still existing, has had virtually no effect on the course of domestic political events. One of the internal party opposition leaders, Oleksandr Lavrynovych, did not even attend the congress, but his absence did not prevent Mr. Chornovil from throwing plenty of dirt at him.

Vasyl Chervony, who led the group of Rukh adherents unsatisfied with the leadership, said, "Obviously, the part of the party representing the older generation has refused to come to terms with younger members, who are more pragmatic and resolute in dealing with those in power; they proposed to combine efforts using the Chornovil-Kostenko formula. "One may question the seriousness of Rukh's claim to leadership of the national democratic camp, because there is no promising figure that the Right-Center can place its hopes in. But I think that this result is not final. The summer congress will make the official nomination."

In a word, it is anyone's guess what course future events will take. Still, some changes did take place. It is safe to assume that the internal party opposition has formed focusing on nominating Kostenko. Incidentally, the resolution on an open ballot (which decided the outcome) was passed by the razor thin margin of three votes, something unprecedented for Rukh with its traditional unanimity. As for Mr. Chornovil, he got the better of his opponents only because his ability to manage the congress "skillfully" through obvious pressure and undemocratic methods.

IMPRESSIONS

The most striking impression was the atmosphere at the gathering, as though, instead of a respectable party of reformers, this were yet another CPSU Congress, albeit without the Communists' strict and ingrained discipline. Evidence of the latter was the presidium's unpredictability (on one occasion Berkut policemen dragged a young Rukh member bursting with ideas from the podium) as well as the level of debate and argument. incidentally, word in the lobby had it that, just like in the good old days, the convention was "programmed" by the Secretariat the previous Friday.

Somehow the candidacy of Mr. Boiko, former head of the Ternopil oblast state administration, got lost in the intraparty shoot-out between Kostenko and Udovenko supporters. One might say that the Boiko issue was solved "automatically," when the party leader announced at the very beginning that "Ukraine is not mature enough to elect a Galician President."

Speaking of the minuses of the other candidate, Kostenko, Mr. Chornovil came up with an amazing argument: "I was in favor of his candidacy until certain party organizations began rudely to oppose it to me."

As for Mr. Udovenko, Rukh believes the choice a good one: people in the eastern territories are likely to accept him and this tallies with the party's major strategy proclaimed at the convention and summed up by the motto "Forward to the East." Mr. Udovenko spoke of the advantages of his candidacy and told the meeting, "I can talk with both the woman digging beets in the field and the President."

Apart from issues relating to the presidential campaign, the congress was highlighted by the leader's speech, which most resembled the story of an offended leader telling how bad his opponents and journalists were. From his soliloquy it follows that the conflict within Rukh was engineered by outside forces and that the relationship between Rukh and those in power is a story invented by the party's opponents ridiculing Rukh's constructive opposition. Also, these opponents are being assisted by some media outlets showing an "unfriendly" attitude toward the party, with The Day, Kievskie Vedomosti, and Zerkalo nedeli topping the list.

COMMENTARY

The Day's Vyacheslav YAKUBENKO asked Serhiy Sobolev, second-in-command of Reforms and Order, to comment on the Rukh congress. Mr. Sobolev replied, "We declared at the outset that Rukh's candidate is its own business, meaning that whatever the party decides, it will be within its rights. However, we all understand that nominations made before the campaign actually starts are just possibilities. When time comes to negotiate within the framework of the broad collation now being assembled, Rukh will submit precisely these candidates and then the coalition will agree on a single candidate to run for presidency on our behalf. We have our own candidate, Viktor Yushchenko. We were pleased to hear the Rukh leader say that his party regards Mr. Yushchenko as one of the likely candidates, but Rukh wants to be sure that he will take part in the campaign."

"And which candidate would your party prefer?"

"As we understood it, Rukh proposed two candidates not to us but to its own local organizations. They will be further discussed and a single candidate will be approved by the next congress next summer."

PS: Viktor Yushchenko has once again confirmed his refusal to run for President, Interfax Ukraine reports. At a meeting with regional media representatives he said, "I have said no and say it again. I have not spoken a single word or made a single gesture indicating otherwise. My stand on this issue remains unchanged, and I hope this is clear enough to prevent any further speculation."