Will the Moldovans protect their European choice?

The presidential election in Moldova, held on October 30, saw the chairman of the Party of Socialists (PSRM) Igor Dodon receive almost 49 percent of the vote. The second place went to the leader of the Action and Solidarity Party Maia Sandu, with 38 percent of Moldovans voting for her. And now, these two candidates will go against each other in the second round, scheduled for November 13.

Dodon has taken an openly pro-Russian position and promised, based on Orthodoxy as “the moral core of the Moldovans,” to hold a referendum to resolve the issue of Moldova’s withdrawal from its already signed Association Agreement with the EU and signing a new agreement on its accession to the Eurasian Economic Union.

His rival Sandu adheres to a pro-European position and supports pragmatic relations with Russia.

The Day asked a Moldovan expert to comment on the results of the first round of the election in Moldova.

Oazu NANTOI, director of the Institute for Public Policy, Chisinau:

“First of all, the remarkable thing is the unprecedentedly low voter turnout, which did not even reach 50 percent. And we know that Dodon’s supporters mostly belong to the older generation, with two-thirds of them being Russian speakers. They are usually quite disciplined voters. In addition, Dodon’s campaign used a few MPs as spoilers who ran only to take away Sandu’s votes.

“In two weeks, we will learn the answer to the question whether the public is aware of the risks associated with the possible election of Dodon, or whether it will consolidate to vote for Sandu. Talking about Dodon, there are two options here. Either he, in accordance with the time-honored traditions of Moldovan politics, is lying on the campaign trail and, should he become president, will say that ‘money is coming from the EU after all, and I got carried away a little bit,’ or we will witness a really very difficult process when Russia will try to transform Moldova into a bridgehead in Ukraine’s rear, since the latter has realized the true colors of Russian policy.

“As a student of Vladimir Voronin, Dodon is definitely an element of the corrupt system, and in addition to the Russian rhetoric, he is de facto supported by Vladimir Plahotniuc. Meanwhile, Sandu has built her campaign on a completely voluntary basis, without money or the administrative and media resources.

“To describe the situation in the country, the proper term is ‘a deep crisis.’ And it is not clear whether the patient will survive following the second round of the presidential election.”

Why is the pro-Russian course more popular with the Moldovans than the pro-European one?

“When the first pro-European coalition was created in 2009, our politicians divided among them all the bodies designed to uphold the rule of law, including the prosecutor’s office and the anti-corruption center, not to mention the corruption itself. And then the crisis began to worsen. It was due to the fact that politicians who were screaming about the European vector had compromised themselves in the eyes of voters. This explains absenteeism of voters who used to vote for the pro-European political parties. In this situation, one can say that the Russian propaganda has been brainwashing people. On the other hand, it should be noted that Moldova is involved in very complex processes related to the historical past.

“We are engaged in a hard and painful struggle, and in this situation, the most dangerous development is an exodus of young and well-educated people. A quarter of them wants to permanently leave this country. If the country will be left only with customs officers, retirees, and bandits who masquerade as legislators, it will have no future.”

What are the odds of the pro-European candidate Sandu winning in the second round?

“Her supporters have to analyze the vote in almost every locality. Dodon has a reserve to draw upon, I mean the people who voted for Dumitru Ciubasenco, representative of Our Party. This is a very strange political project which is linked to Renato Usatii, who is a criminal suspect and hiding in Moscow once again.

“At the same time, our public has repeatedly relied on a black-and-white scheme when going to the polls. The situation has grown simpler. We like to consolidate not for the sake of something but rather against something. And perhaps, the second round will see a consolidation among the voters who do not agree with Dodon’s rhetoric.”

Can Dodon, assuming he is elected, change the country’s course?

“If you look at the Moldovan constitution, the powers of the president are far from being dictatorial. Moreover, in many respects, they have no basis in legislation. For example, the constitution says that the president is the guarantor of the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the Republic of Moldova, but the relevant legislation does not stipulate how he should guarantee it.

“The election of Dodon may create a lasting negative precedent in this part of the European continent with obviously negative consequences. No true peace will come here in this case.”