Will SES be approved simultaneously and as a package?
On February 26 Russian Duma Spe aker Boris Gryzlov completed his first foreign visit — to Kyiv. The Russian parliament’s leader stressed this was a symbolic step in the development of relations between Kyiv and Moscow. Many are inclined, however, to view this symbolic nature in a slightly different key: Russia is bending over backwards to persuade Ukraine to ratify the Single Economic Space (SES) agreement. Speaker Gryzlov seems to be a sort of trailblazer entrusted with the mission to lobby for this document.
It would be highly incorrect to say that Russia’s top lawmaker made a successful journey, because he received no clear-cut promises from official Kyiv to ratify this document. Yet, if we take into account that Moscow hardly expected Ukraine to quickly show compliance, the visit can be assessed as quite promising. Moscow understands only too well that, after the Tuzla crisis, Verkhovna Rada will not unconditionally approve a document criticized by many experts, diplomats, and ministers. The Russians have opted for a cautious approach to making Ukrainian deputies approve the SES agreement. Concretely, it was agreed upon to establish an interparliamentary working commission which will analyze the documents to be ratified and prepare convincing arguments for the deputies. Incidentally, the second tactical move is that both sides sign agreements not only on establishing the SES but also on the state border and on joint management of the Sea of Azov and the Kerch Strait.
The Russians suggest that the three documents be discussed simultaneously and voted on “as a package.” It will be recalled that The Day forecast this course of events a week before Mr. Gryzlov’s visit, and the Duma speaker only confirmed our information on February 27: “I think that, in view of the decision to set up the groups that will be working until these documents are put to a vote, we will be able to settle all differences and, moreover, to put all these issues up for parliamentary discussion simultaneously in Moscow and Kyiv in a package.” What does this “package approach” mean? The Russian side must be aware that, whatever the pro-SES arguments, there are very slim chances that the agreement in question will be ratified. On the other hand, Russia knows only too well that Ukraine is interested in ratifying the State Border Treaty. This brings points to the following pattern: if Kyiv wants to sign the border treaty, it will have to approve the SES agreement and, vice versa, if Ukrainian lawmakers pull a plug on the SES, they can abandon the hope that Moscow will ratify the border treaty. Yet, it is rather doubtful that Ukraine will accept such a hodgepodge of ratifications, because these documents are absolutely different in essence.
It is not ruled out that Ukraine will try to slow developments. Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych said recently that Ukraine and Russia would be more prepared to establish the SES after Moscow has ratified the free trade agreement. The main issue here is, in principle, the adoption of a document on setting up an effective free trade area. This is what Ukraine really wants to achieve before joining the SES. However, Russia seems to have a different vision of free trade and the single space.
When will the clock strike on ratification? This remains unclear so far. Of course, Russia would like to get the Ukrainian go-ahead before the March 14 presidential elections. Pres. Putin submitted all the three documents to Duma committees and factions two weeks ago. The Russian electorate would be very glad to add two or three more percent of votes for any candidate in gratitude for the SES being established. Meanwhile, Russian Speaker Gryzlov announced on February 27 he expected the agreement and the two treaties to be voted on in late March. Verkhovna Rada Speaker Lytvyn said in turn that “these matters should be discussed as soon as possible, preferably, before our presidential campaign.” All this makes it appear like Ukraine is heading for a difficult spring full of breathtaking SES debates in the parliament.
