Will there be sanctions?

The sanctions, which are being developed by the US and the EU against Russia, will affect energy, banking, and defense spheres. Assistant of US State Secretary Victoria Nuland said this in her speech at the German Marshall Fund in Washington on Monday. Ms. Nuland noted that the sanctions may have a personal character and accused the Kremlin of the extremely dangerous support of the militants in the east of Ukraine. She added that obviously during the last week the situation in Ukraine has seriously worsened. Nuland also said that Washington disapproves of the sale of Mistral warships by France to Russia. “We made it clear well before the Ukraine crisis that we had large concerns about whether Mistral was the right thing to be sending,” Skynews quotes her as saying.

According to the state official, the sanctions will be approved in two to four weeks. Nuland also reminded of the words of US President Barack Obama who said in June at G7 summit in Brussels that Washington is not going to wait for months until it approves the sanctions against Russia.

Great Britain supports as well the implementation of a new package of sanctions against Moscow. In particular, UK Foreign Secretary William Hague stated that the international community is ready to implement new sanctions if Russia continues to provoke instability in Ukraine. However, how real is the adoption of a third package of restricting measures for Moscow by the US and the EU? Will it be really efficient for stopping the Russian aggression in the east of Ukraine? The Day discussed this with the leading research fellow of Carnegie Center, Lilia SHEVTSOVA (Moscow).

“They started to speak about sector sanctions no less than four weeks ago. As is known, the threat which is repeated for unlimited number of times, but not realized in practice, becomes comic and turns into farce. In this situation there are several circumstances that will determine the policy of the West regarding the third round of sanctions against Russia.

“Europe continues to think that it sees the light in the end of the tunnel, like Steinmeier recently said [Germany’s Foreign Minister. – Ed.]. Germany is categorically against making the sanctions more severe, due to certain circumstances we have discussed in The Day.

“Brussels turns out to be absolutely toothless, especially when the cycle of activity of current political leadership of the EU is coming to an end. Quite recently, Barroso stated that on July 27 the European Union will conclude a trade agreement [Association Agreement. – Ed.] with three countries: Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia. Nonetheless, the EU invites Russia for participation in discussion of concrete details of these agreements, in order to dispel Russia’s suspicions. In fact, the EU is offering Moscow to become a regulator of its relations with Ukraine and two more countries.

“Even this stand means that any idea of three-level sanctions will meet resistance or unwilling to develop this mechanism by the EU, above all by two European super states, Germany and France. What sector sanctions can there be, if France has undertaken the commission to supply Mistrals to Russia? What sanctions can there be, if German business is closely involved in all three spheres of activity, against which the Americans are offering sanctions? I am very skeptical that the idea of sector sanctions will win support of the European community. The question is whether the Americans will be able to advance this idea independently from the behavior of Europe.

“There is one circumstance that apparently makes the adoption of this decision for Obama more difficult. He does not want to make any decisions in foreign policy. His main credo is to avoid all international obligations. Now, when the American policy failed in Iraq, Obama is facing only one task: the need to somehow stop the attack of the anti-Western forces that are ready to swallow Iraq and prevent a new fratricidal war. This is what is absorbing all of his attention.

“If we make an analysis of the Western press, Ukraine is on the second place now. I.e., the West has stopped thinking about Ukraine – now all of its attention is attached to Iraq and possibility of a new war in the Near East. I am not sure that in this situation Obama will be ready to approve sector sanctions. Therefore the question of the third level of sanctions is so far hanging in the air. The decision will depend on Obama’s attention, as well as whether Obama’s team, aware of the need of counteracting the Kremlin, which is becoming all the more militant, convince President Obama in this.”

“PUTIN IS CHANGING HIS TACTICS IN UKRAINE”

Nuland also noted that two to four weeks will be needed to approve the decision…

“By this she is sending two messages: one – to Germany, which supports the policy ‘let’s not make Russia angry, let’s stay within the framework of the paradigm of threatening with sanctions.’ The second message is another signal for Vladimir Putin: ‘stop destabilizing the situation in the east of Ukraine. Be more flexible in the gas conflict with Ukraine.’ But, firstly, Putin can hardly stop now. Secondly, there are serious doubts that he can stop the pro-Russian terrorist forces.”

Latvian publication IR writes that Putin is backpedaling in the east of Ukraine: he did not recognize the referendums of the so-called DNR and LNR and returned Ambassador Zurabov to Kyiv, because he is seriously afraid of the third level of sanctions. What is your opinion?

“There is no doubt that within the Kremlin there are fears that the sector sanctions will seriously aggravate the situation in Russian economy, especially the commercial interests of the ruling elite. But I would not say that Putin is backpedaling. I would use the phrase ‘change of tactics.’ We don’t know what factors have influenced this change and why Putin did not venture to occupy the east of Ukraine. I have an impression that Russia has never seriously thought about this. Rather the Kremlin was thinking on a kind of Transnistrian version and support of this unrecognized republic. I think the thing now is about the change of the Kremlin tactics and moving to a more flexible, versatile tactics of influencing Ukraine.

“This tactics includes the elements:

1) destabilization of the situation with the help of contractors and volunteer forces supporting the Russian world;

2) forming a pro-Russian lobby in Ukraine;

3) instruments of gas blackmailing (another kind of war against Ukraine);

4) influencing the next parliamentary elections, as well as influencing the new pro-Russian faction in the future Rada.

“We can also see how successfully Kremlin is working on implementation of ‘Trojan horses’ in the European society, dividing the European country on the question of Ukraine. Therefore it is proper to speak about the change of the Kremlin’s tactics rather than about refusal from destabilization and attempts of turning Ukraine into cordon sanitaire, or a buffer zone between Russia and Europe.”

“UKRAINE HAS OBTAINED POWERFUL NATIONAL IDENTITY”

Does the future look so pessimistic for Ukraine and it, like Moldova and Georgia, will always have to take into consideration the opinion of Russia?

“Ukraine has powerful trumps. One of them is consolidation of the most of Ukrainian society (there is no difference between the west, center, and south of Ukraine) around the idea of the European course. Most of Ukrainians voted for candidates that declared pro-Western programs. The least people voted for Tihipko and Dobkin. Ukraine has obtained a powerful national identity. We have said previously that Ukraine had built a state, but was unable to obtain the national identity. It turns out it has made a huge step, but the state institutions: army, law-enforcement forces, and borders should be built from scratch.

“Ukraine has as well such a powerful factor of exerting pressure on Russia as a gas valve. As a transit country, Ukraine can regulate Russia’s income via the Gazprom pipelines, with the help of gas valve. Ukraine has such powerful ‘weapons’ as influencing the functioning of Russian military-industrial complex.

“Finally, Ukraine has a huger trump – in spite of the paralysis and impotence of Western political circles, the West understands that it must help Ukraine.”