Will Tyhypko’s and Tymoshenko’s possible retirement mark the beginning of the end of the “reform” government?

Cadre changes are expected shortly in the Ukrainian government. This became obvious May 15 when Cabinet Press Secretary Natalia Zarudna announced that Economy Minister Serhiy Tyhypko intends to run for Parliament in Dnipropetrovsk oblast where he worked for quite some time. Previously, Vice Premier Yuliya Tymoshenko was nominated for Verkhovna Rada by the Kirovohrad organization of her Batkivshchyna Party, although she has made no statement to this effect. In any case, both Tyhypko and Tymoshenko will make their intentions known on May 26 when the registration of candidates ends. The Central Election Committee has called special elections in ten constituencies on June 25.

Incidentally, Viktor Yushchenko forestalled cadre changes several days ago. In an interview with Inter, he confirmed that his team will undergo changes, adding that the Cabinet is working “on cadre and structural changes to strengthen the government.”

Several political scientists and experts believe that changes in Cabinet membership are very likely to take place and can be predicted, especially after Yushchenko’s trip to the US. Despite Washington’s support of the Yushchenko Cabinet’s determination to continue with reforms, the issue of further loans from international financial institutions has been put off until summer. Kyiv expects to hear second round NBU audit findings and a visit of IMF officials this June. As a UT-1 anchorman pointed out facetiously, “The Allies have promised to open a second front.”

Volodymyr Malynkovych, director of the International Institute for Humanitarian Studies, maintains that Viktor Yushchenko “expected to receive more clearly defined support in the United States and this would allow him to become more independent in dealing with the oligarchs and the President. But the Americans were vague and nothing has actually changed. Thus, he is forced to make serious concessions in cadre policy, allowing access to someone working for some oligarchs that are not represented in government, who will replace Tyhypko and Tymoshenko.”

People’s Deputy Oleksandr Riabchenko, commenting on Yuliya Tymoshenko’s further career, feels sure that “she will easily win the elections in her constituency and will return to Parliament. For her it is not even an alternate airfield but a supporting pillar; she might now be thinking what is best for her: staying in the Cabinet or returning to Parliament.”

As for the current Economy Minister, numerous experts are convinced that Serhiy Tyhypko “wants to become a public politician.” But even in this new field of endeavor he may ride over portholes. “A political force must be formed, only then entering Parliament would make sense. Once in Verkhovna Rada, he will have to join one of the existing political parties, because it is impossible to set up a new one now,” says Riabchenko, adding that “the Economy Minister means a lot more for Ukraine than any of the 450 People’s Deputies.”

Volodymyr Tsybulko, advisor to the Prime Minister and political scientist, is confident that the current Cabinet “intends to work long and remain true to its program of reforms. It’s too early to discuss Yushchenko’s retirement, as this team is just starting on its reform project.”

Tsybulko further believes that Viktor Yushchenko’s political destiny is being mulled over because “many politicians and parties in this country are making Yushchenko into a superman. He is someone who can and is determined to do his job well and this determination became the reason for all such completely unnecessary myths. When he flew to the United States it was not to get money but to restore confidence in Ukraine, and he did just that.”

Malynkovych assumes that possible changes do not mean “the beginning of the end” for Yushchenko’s Cabinet. “So long as Clinton remains in office Yushchenko will remain an important figure in the West, but if Bush, Jr. Takes over in November and his team attacks the Premier, Yushchenko will be out,” he says.

Even now one can hear the names of those likely to replace Viktor Yushchenko. Mr. Malynkovych believes that Vice Speaker Viktor Medvedchuk could be the next Premier. Internal Affairs Minister Yuri Kravchenko is another possibility. In fact, Mr. Malynkovych suggests that “Kravchenko could stand an even better chance than Medvedchuk.”

Moscow’s Nezavisimaya gazeta regards the Internal Affairs Minister as Yushchenko’s most likely replacement. This newspaper predicts Yushchenko’s retirement if the IMF does not deliver before fall. And the Minister’s four meetings with President Putin over the past several months are regarded as supporting evidence of Kravchenko succeeding Yushchenko in his post.

In fact, Yuri Kravchenko said that the Internal Affairs Minister must become a “political figure,” but only after the militia machine is reformed. In April, he declared that after the ministry is reorganized to meet European standards the minister will have a certain political weight and be able to distance himself from routine police work.

There is, however, an entirely different view on the reform government’s destiny. An informed source, being close to a regional leader, reports that “No one will let Yushchenko get hurt.” At the same time, once the Vice Premier’s seat is vacated it will be occupied by a “tough economic planner,” one of those currently at the regional level. In this sense, Kuratchenko, governor of Zaporizhzhia oblast, or Anatoly Kinakh, head of the Ukrainian Association of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs, look very promising. The said source adds, “Even now pragmatic regional and sector bosses are moving someone they have full confidence in toward the romantic Yushchenko.”

Reading tea leaves apart, all the experts agree that Yushchenko’s premiership may well face crisis this June, should the talks with IMF fail, in which case there is every reason to expect the appearance of new-old figures in government. The next trial Yushchenko will have to undergo is likely to happen this fall, after the US presidential elections.