“Winds of change” in the Arab world

The whole world is watching the events in North Africa and the Middle East. In two countries of this region, Tunisia and Egypt, the people’s anger brought down their respective dictators. Now it seems that the current president of Yemen, who has been ruling the country for 33 years, will face the same fate. Conversely, events in Syria and Libya are following a different path. In the former the government controls the situation and is dealing with the demonstrators harshly. In the latter Gaddafi’s forces are in an all-out civil war against the inexperienced rebels, who count on the West to help them, notably through the imposition of a no-fly zone. How will the events in this important region develop, particularly in Libya, where many Ukrainians work? Can Ukraine use its “soft power” to promote its interests in

North Africa and the Middle East? Yevhen MYKYTENKO, deputy minister of foreign affairs and former ambassador to the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Syria spoke about these questions in an exclusive interview to The Day.

“If you happened to visit the region of the Middle East or North Africa in spring, you would know that in this period strong winds blow there, the khamsins, which bring sand from the Sahara and Arabian deserts. This year powerful political storms started in the region as early as January.

“I would like to point out that we generally predicted the events now taking place in the Middle East and North Africa.

“However, the terms of their development were difficult to predict. By the way, not only for us. Let’s remember, for example, what a controversial reaction our European and overseas partners had to the early revolutionary events in the region. Arabian countries also vary in their take on the situation: there is chaos in the region, everyone feels distrust to one another.

“In my opinion, the processes now taking place in the countries of the Arabian world are generally of an unpredictable character and don’t allow for precise forecasts. No Arabian country is immune to internal turmoil of the kind we saw in Tunisia, Egypt or Libya. Ordinary people are tired of hegemony, autocracy, and social inequality, of shiny Mercedes cars cruising past a fellah (peasant) with a donkey. As an Arabian leader said, now some cannot ‘tighten their belts anymore, and the belt won’t buckle on others.’

“Today it is obvious that the development of protest sentiments in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and other countries of the region is caused by the fact that the leaders of these countries considerably delayed delivering political, social and economic reforms.

“It is noteworthy that the major motor of the opposition is the educated youth, which grew up in an age of new information technologies and is geared up for the necessity of political and social-economic changes in their countries.

“The peculiarity of all the countries of the region that are experiencing protests is that the leadership of these states repeats one and the same mistake: first they use force, then offer dialog, hold negotiations, or initiate reforms. This approach bears a confrontational character from the very onset and aggravates the internal political situation, with events developing in an unpredictable direction.”

That is the leaders of those Arab countries don’t learn from the mistakes of others. What lessons can we take back from these events?

“I think that today, in the sense of development of cooperation with the states of North Africa and the Middle East, the question of whether the region’s leaders will be able to come to corresponding conclusions in order to make similar actions impossible in the future and whether they have the time needed for this remain topical for both our state and the international community. Besides, another important question is who can head the ‘protest wave’ and unite the different groups on the national level.

“Recently the governments of Jordan, Syria and Kuwait resigned. At present the leadership of those countries is making efforts to stabilize the situation, increase social standards and liberalize political life. Extraordinary parliamentary elections were announced in Egypt in September this year, and in two months the election of a new president will take place there. The king of Jordan is quick and flexible in his reaction to the situation in the country and commands considerable authority and respect among his subordinates. President of Syria Bashar al-Assad announced 30 percent salary increases for state officials, and created a commission that will determine the expediency of lifting the country’s emergency state [in place since 1963 – Ed.]. In Kuwait a peaceful political dialog on modernization is being held. So, one can say that the ‘winds of change’ touched almost all the Arab countries.

“It should also be pointed out that that the tension, lasting since early this year in the Arab world, has had a negative impact on trade between our countries. There is no doubt that the markets of the Middle East and North Africa are extremely interesting and promising for us. One can simply look at the statistics, which show that our total export to this region in 2010 constituted about six billion US dollars. Ukraine’s main exports to the Arab countries are ferrous metal, grain and other agricultural products.”

Can Ukraine’s decision to send the large Kostiantyn Olshansky assault landing ship to Libya be interpreted as participation in the coalition’s enforcement of the UN resolution on establishing a no-fly zone over the country?

“I would like to explain this right away, so as not to have any ambiguity. As a responsible UN member, our state will inevitably fulfill the provisions of the Libyan resolutions of the UN Security Council No. 1970 and No. 1973. We believe that the efforts of all parties involved in the situation in Libya must first of all be focused on protecting and ensuring security for civilians.

“Thus, as a concrete contribution fulfilling the provisions of these documents, the big landing ship Kostiantyn Olshansky was sent to carry out humanitarian work, notably evacuating Ukrainian citizens and other foreigners from the ports of Libya.

“We intend to focus on this aspect of dealing with the Libyan crisis, though we’re ready to consider other proposals on a later stage. We also expect comprehensive assistance in ensuring security for our ship within the framework of the realization of its humanitarian evacuation operation.”

How long, in your opinion, will the conflict in Libya last? Is a land military action possible?

“The coalition’s operation Odyssey Dawn has continued for two weeks already. They say that the protagonist of the ancient Greek poem traveled for 10 years. Today, in fact, in Libya a civil war between the west and east has been ongoing, and the coalition supports one of the parties. As history shows, there are no winners in civil wars. In any case, if members of the coalition make the decision to deploy ground forces, Libyans will not meet the ‘guests’ with flowers and won’t give them sweets, following Eastern tradition.”

Has Ukraine established contacts with the National Transitional Council based in Benghazi?

“No, it has not. So far we do not know with whom to deal. In addition, I’m sure that Tripoli won’t like the negotiations or the de facto recognition of the transitional government. This could also spell a risk to those Ukrainians who continue to work in Libyan hospitals in cities controlled by forces of Muammar Gaddafi.

“So far we don’t know the program of the National Transitional Council. Today the main requirement of the opposition is to deprive the leader of Jamahiriya Muammar Gaddafi of his power. What’s next? Its next steps are still unknown.

“Heterogeneity of the opposition’s composition and the absence of information on the political views of its leaders substantially complicate any forecasts on further development in this country.

“My strong opinion is that the future Libyan government needs to clearly outline for its people what it wants and what kind of Libya it sees without Muammar Gaddafi, since one of the problems is that the country is markedly heterogeneous and consists of tribes that are well armed and want access to resources, thus destabilizing the state.”

How do you assess the fact that France and Great Britain took the initiative to remove Muammar Gaddafi from power? Has the center of European politics moved from Paris-Berlin to Paris-London?

“I wouldn’t talk about the formation of some new stable ‘axis’ inside the European Union. France has a historic interest in North Africa, as seen in the current President Nicolas Sarkozy’s initiative on establishing a Union for the Mediterranean. Besides, Paris is concerned about the issue of uncontrolled migrant flows from Africa. Similarly, the Middle East and North Africa always interested Great Britain. Therefore the current ‘Paris-London’ axis seems temporary.”

Can Ukraine use its “soft power” to promote its own interests in the region? What is being done in this respect?

“Not simply can, it actively uses it. Those who follow events in Ukrainian foreign policy couldn’t help noticing that recently there has been a considerable intensification of Ukraine’s political contacts with the states of the Middle East and North Africa. At the same time, the organization and holding of the visits of the Israeli and Syrian presidents, the Ukrainian foreign minister’s upcoming visit to Egypt, and Minister Kostiantyn Hryshchenko’s visit to Qatar and Kuwait showed the world that our state is interested in strengthening political and trade relations with the countries of this region, and that Ukraine has a balanced position on the Arab-Israeli conflict and the peace process in general.

“I would also like to stress that current trends require that Ukraine realize its own policy in North Africa and the Middle East by means of keeping a ba-lance in the formation of a close partnership relation with the major actors of world politics. First of all, from the rectangle EU-US-China-Russia.

“One should take into account the fact that at present, due to an increased interest from leading world actors in the investment, industrial and energy possibilities in the region, all the states of that region are adjusting their foreign policy vectors.

“Therefore in today’s indefinite situation we try to actively use the factor of Ukraine’s equal proximity in political and economic aspects to the main participants of regional processes, what will allow us to be more actively involved in international efforts to solve regional problems and promote our economic interests.”