A Word about Illusions and Trust

“You should not expect any miracles from the international conference of the Balkan Stability Pact donors,” said Javier Solana, now in charge of European Union’s joint foreign policy and security, in Skopje and Tirana. This is the EU’s common point of view. Accordingly, this reflects reality: the pact, called upon to bring, at last, the long-awaited peace to the Balkans, the traditional powder keg of Europe, lacks specific content. For, as the situation changed, the West also altered its priorities. Macedonia, for example, feels very hurt that it was not invited for EU membership talks, with preference being given Bulgaria and Romania, which suffered much less from UN sanctions against Yugoslavia and the overall Kosovo crisis. Macedonia has only been promised talks on partnership and association, which openly dissatisfies all that country’s political forces. “We have sold our soul but have received nothing from the West,” is the current unofficial and unpublicized mood in Skopje, which means Macedonia supported NATO operations against Yugoslavia last year. “Our relations with the EU could and should be far broader and better,” Jordan Boshkov, ruling Macedonian party member and chairman of the parliamentary foreign affairs committee, told The Day quite officially. He is convinced, “There is no truth in politics, there are only interests.” It is considered quite obvious — and is in fact true — that Macedonia, even though the poorest of all former Yugoslav republics and one that has clearly degraded following the latest Balkan events, still looks more developed and orderly than Bulgaria which has so far received more advances from the EU. The local press sometimes even calls the EU the Whore of Babylon, thus characterizing changes in the sentiments of Brussels which “loves Skopje but rewards Sofia and Bucharest.” Diplomats and politicians consider unrealistic the conditions put forward by Brussels.

You can also hear in the Foreign Ministry disappointment over the state of affairs. And at least Macedonian politicians, diplomats, and journalists assert that their country is now shedding some of its illusions and that now one should not believe the numerous promises the West made during the Kosovo crisis. The Macedonians do not believe somebody will make up for the losses of the past few years, which could have been avoided, and are mainly relying on themselves. In any case, Yugoslavia remains its chief trade partner. In any case, full integration in all European and Euro-Atlantic structures remains the country’s top foreign-policy priority: Skopje thinks only NATO membership can guarantee to some extent its security in its very hostile surroundings. Yet, it is now attempting to rely only on their own resources, come to terms with their neighbors, and renew, if and when possible, its lost ties in the East. The Macedonians think it a very good omen that a company of theirs managed to win, together with the Ukrainians, a stability pact tender. It should be noted they place hopes in such cooperation. Both Skopje and Tirana speak very tersely about the donors’ conference: “We shall see,” and thus react to Mr. Solana’s words: “We expected nothing else.” In a word, they see the truth.

Tirana still believes the West will support the Albanian stand on Kosovo: this former Yugoslav province should be independent (let me add in brackets there is no question of any kind of Greater Albania). Officials here try to assure you they are aware that they must first come to terms with the neighbors, so they expect to become full-fledged EU members in 10-15 years. This viewpoint is shared by both the ruling party and the opposition against a backdrop of the virtual nonexistence of industrial production, the growing public disappointment, and the resulting huge emigration. “We have shed our illusions,” presidential advisor for security and European integration Sabit Brokai tried to assure me. Not all illusions have been shed perhaps, but no one knows what kind of interests the West will have in six months. For instance, Washington suddenly began to air disappointment over the Kosovo Albanians it once cuddled so affectionately.

One can add to all this that a realistic view of things has never hampered anybody and that Kyiv has long lacked realism. Although, we seem to understand there should be no illusions: it is true that only interests matter in politics. And it would be very good if it were our own interests, among them: developing export oriented industries, capturing new markets, sharply rising living standards, recovering from the diseases of transition, such as scandals concerning the IMF, corruption, and freedom of the press; and, finally, an on par dialogue with Russia and the West. There also seem to be specific examples for us to learn.