The year 2012 will be decisive for Europe

The other day French President Nicolas Sarkozy declared the necessity to reconsider the European organization and German Chancellor Angela Merkel suggested creating a fiscal union in Europe. The French leader opined that “the new agreement will contribute to a tighter integration and a stronger fiscal discipline in the EU. The EU will collapse if it does not pull itself together.” In her turn, the German chancellor remarked that “we are not only talking about a fiscal union, we are beginning to create it.” Isn’t it too late to make similar declarations and how will the reconsidering of the European basis influence the European prospects of Ukraine? Former deputy foreign minister of Ukraine Oleksandr CHALY told about it in his interview to The Day.

“The situation is complicated. The euro has established itself and cannot be withdrawn. Meanwhile, there are two key counterpositions today. The position of Germany as the economic leader of the Eurozone and the EU in general: Berlin is ready to help stabilize the financial situation; however, it wants to create mechanisms to reinforce the existing regulatory functions within the Eurozone or through special additional obligations of some countries. These mechanisms have to guarantee that all the help given to the Eurozone will not slip through one’s fingers but will be directed to stabilize the debtor countries, reduce their budgeted deficit and establish the competitive economies within their borders.

“There is the position of the countries that would like to receive help without carrying out any reforms. They are playing on each other’s nerves. I believe that the common sense will win and the EU members will find a balanced formula to overcome the debt crisis. It is unlikely to happen very quickly but I am sure that Germany will take its step to compromise and the debtor countries do not have any other choice but making their step forward, too.”

What do you think about Radoslaw Sikorski’s declaration who expressed dissatisfaction with Germany’s passiveness in dealing with the crisis?

“I heard Sikorski’s speech in Berlin. Regardless of the possible criticism within Poland he asked Germany to start acting as efficiently as possible as a leader and help all the countries having debts. It is true that Germany and Merkel are being pressured. Everybody wants Germany to provide them with easy credits and easy financial support. However, I find Merkel’s position correct since she is ready to politically unblock the mechanisms of the financial support for the debtor countries only after she makes sure that the current system regulating the financial relations of the Eurozone at the international level is reformed and the debtor countries promise to carry out domestic reforms. I think it is only a matter of time and the compromise will be found since if it is not found it will be a catastrophe for Germany and all the other Eurozone countries.”

How might the last Merkel and Sarkozy’s declaration affect the European prospects of Ukraine, in particular initiating the Association Agreement during the December summit in Kyiv?

“The economic and financial problems existing in the Eurozone and the EU in general urge the European Commission to find the possibilities to open new markets for the EU businesses. In this prospect the Association Agreement between the EU and Ukraine is very interesting for the EU. It will give the European community a strategic prospect for quite a liberal price for entering a new large market in the Central Europe. That is why, on the one hand, the situation is positive for Ukraine. On the other hand, the current situation is absolutely unfavorable for resolving the strategic question of membership prospects put by Ukraine. The EU is now struggling to preserve its current structure, especially in the Eurozone. That is why now they do not have any political possibilities to consider the new members, especially when such a complicated for their perception country as Ukraine is concerned.”

However, on the one hand the European Parliament recommended the European Commission to sign the Association Agreement and to give Ukraine the membership prospect. On the other hand, Germany declares that it will not initiate the agreement until Tymoshenko’s case is resolved. What should Ukraine do to get out of the trap it is in?

“It seems to me that we are very close to holding the summit and adopting the text of the Agreement through the declaration or initialing. Three things are needed for this. First of all, the text of the Agreement has to be finalized by the experts. It is a technical matter. Secondly, it would be very good if the Ukrainian judicial authorities make an adequate decision concerning Tymoshenko’s case (as well as other resonant cases) that will give a possibility to relieve the tension. I think that the appeal court has every reason to make a decision about another restraint in the current situation. It means that Tymoshenko does not have to necessarily be in prison. However, this decision can be only made by the court. If it makes this decision it will resolve all the political problems for sure. Thirdly, if the second point is not realized, the Ukrainian diplomats have to persuade their colleagues from the EU (there are many of those who support initiating the agreement on December 19) that the initiation or adoption of the text is just a technical matter. It does not give any political guarantee that the agreement will be signed and ratified. That is why making political demands to this technical step is inadequate. Probably, this argument can be used to persuade the skeptics among the members of the European Commission and leaders of some European countries that have not make a decision whether the agreement should be initiated on December 19.”

By the way, the recommendations of the European Parliament for the EU government concerning the development of relations with Ukraine reads that “that Russia is exerting excessive pressure on Ukraine not to establish a Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement (DCFTA) with the EU but instead to join a customs union with Russia, Belarus, and Kazakhstan.” What do you think about it?

“In my opinion, similar declarations trying to present Ukraine as an apple of discord between the EU and Russia are not positive. I think that we need a new all-European political thinking that would not present the situation around Ukraine in the terms of ‘white – black’ or ‘ours – somebody else’s.’ It seems to me that it is more important to consider how Ukraine, the EU, and Russia could build an all-European security and economic space through creating an efficient free trade zone with the EU as well as with Russia within the CIS.”

There’s no doubt that Putin will be elected the Russian president for the third term. He actively supports the idea Ukraine has to join the Eurasian Union. In this view, how should our country build the relations with Russia?

“We are entering a favorable stage of development of the new geopolitical and geo-economic situation in the Wider Europe. This stage requires integration and cooperation. I think we have to participate in the all-European projects that are or will be on the agenda, based on the fact that on the territory of the Wider Europe for a certain period of time there will be the European Union and the Eurasian Union as economic organizations, and NATO and CSTO as the collective security organizations. They will transform from the organizations competing with each other into the organizations making an emphasis on the cooperation. The task of Ukraine will be to fit into the new geopolitical and geo-economic trends and try to win from this cooperation and to use the synergy of this cooperation to increase its security and prosperity.”